Value
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
AXSM · Why this verdict
Why Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Axsome Therapeutics is growing revenue 46% YoY with analysts targeting 73.1% upside against 10.1% downside, but it is still burning cash, missed EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters and reports in 1 day. The stock is 44% off its high with RSI at 26, so it is a speculative biotech rebound candidate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Axsome is growing revenue at 46% YoY, with both revenue and earnings growth components at the maximum 10/10 and a Rule of 40 score of 45. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months as commercial products scale. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and a forward P/E of 35.8x already prices in rapid growth, so any slowdown could hit the stock hard. | ||
At $144.43 the stock is 73.1% below the $250.07 analyst target versus 10.1% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 7.2. Estimated upside | Price should close part of the gap to the $250.07 target over 12 months as sales scale. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets for a biotech that missed estimates in 3 of 4 quarters may be too high, and the stock is 44% below its high for a reason. | ||
The company is cash-burning with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and missed EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -13.4%. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should reach breakeven and EPS losses should narrow versus estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterA free cash flow loss of only 1% of revenue is close to breakeven, and large percentage misses on small loss figures can overstate the problem. | ||
RSI of 26 signals capitulation risk with price below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising (+0.9%/30d) and rising volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 and price should reclaim the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCapitulation-level readings can stay depressed for weeks, and falling prices into earnings in 1 day may add selling pressure. | ||
Insiders sold $12.6M recently (0.167% of market cap) in a speculative, binary-outcome biotech profile with a 44% drawdown and 84% implied volatility. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should stay below 0.2% of market cap and volatility should ease after earnings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider sales often reflect scheduled diversification, and a 44% drawdown may already discount the bad news. | ||
Axsome is growing revenue at 46% YoY, with both revenue and earnings growth components at the maximum 10/10 and a Rule of 40 score of 45.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months as commercial products scale.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and a forward P/E of 35.8x already prices in rapid growth, so any slowdown could hit the stock hard.
At $144.43 the stock is 73.1% below the $250.07 analyst target versus 10.1% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 7.2.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $250.07 target over 12 months as sales scale.
CounterTargets for a biotech that missed estimates in 3 of 4 quarters may be too high, and the stock is 44% below its high for a reason.
The company is cash-burning with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and missed EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -13.4%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should reach breakeven and EPS losses should narrow versus estimates.
CounterA free cash flow loss of only 1% of revenue is close to breakeven, and large percentage misses on small loss figures can overstate the problem.
RSI of 26 signals capitulation risk with price below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising (+0.9%/30d) and rising volume shows accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and price should reclaim the 200-day average.
CounterCapitulation-level readings can stay depressed for weeks, and falling prices into earnings in 1 day may add selling pressure.
Insiders sold $12.6M recently (0.167% of market cap) in a speculative, binary-outcome biotech profile with a 44% drawdown and 84% implied volatility.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay below 0.2% of market cap and volatility should ease after earnings.
CounterInsider sales often reflect scheduled diversification, and a 44% drawdown may already discount the bad news.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 52% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=5)
- ▸Analyst upside: 97%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,083,507 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $115
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:110d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
6.34
Upside
+77.1%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 6.34.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.5, and Value at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 3.6, Peer rank at 3.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 25% YoY from current 46%.
- P2Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 25% from current 73.1%.
- P3Cash Burn And Earnings Misses
Trip ifFree cash flow margin rises above 0% of revenue from current -1%.
- P4Capitulation Level Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop of $134.32 with RSI staying below 30 from current 26.
- P5Insider Selling Binary Risk
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap from current 0.167%.