Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
AUB · Why this verdict
Why Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo (AUB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Atlantic Union Bankshares exhibits strong earnings consistency and industry-leading growth, but the stock has rallied to within 1.4% of the analyst consensus target, leaving an unfavorable risk/reward at current prices that favors patience over initiating or adding to a position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including the two most recent consecutive beats, with the company averaging roughly 8.5% above consensus — a pattern that suggests disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery. Earnings | Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, each with a positive surprise exceeding 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterAn in-line quarter in the middle of the streak tempers the narrative, and the average beat of 8.5% is moderate; a softening operating environment for regional banks could quickly narrow the buffer between guidance and actual results. | ||
With the stock just 1.4% below the analyst consensus target of $40.12, the risk/reward sits at approximately 0.3-to-1 against the investor — an unfavorable setup where downside potential substantially outweighs the remaining upside at current prices. Bear case | Analyst consensus target rises above $46 (creating more than 15% upside from current price) or price pulls back meaningfully to restore a favorable risk/reward. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStocks near analyst targets frequently trigger upward target revisions following a strong earnings print; the three-quarter beat streak makes a near-term upgrade plausible. | ||
A confirmed golden cross, a position above all moving averages, an RSI near 58, and a bullish MACD all point to a stock in a technically healthy uptrend that has broken out through prior resistance. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the breakout as a new support level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range and the Bollinger Band position scores near the bottom of its range, suggesting the price may be stretched relative to its envelope and at risk of consolidation. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.50 indicates that options market participants are deploying two and a half times as many puts as calls, reflecting substantial hedging against near-term downside that may act as a drag on price appreciation. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.2 as sentiment improves and near-term hedges roll off. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at local price highs can mark sentiment extremes; if the fundamental backdrop holds, the forced cover of those puts could amplify an upward price move. | ||
The company ranks at the top of its regional banking peer group on revenue and earnings growth, with reported growth of roughly 86% year over year — placing it in the industry growth leadership tier. Peer rank | Revenue growth sustains above 30% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth rates of this magnitude in regional banking are typically acquisition-driven or reflect low base-year effects; organic growth, net interest margin trends, and credit quality are the more durable metrics to monitor. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including the two most recent consecutive beats, with the company averaging roughly 8.5% above consensus — a pattern that suggests disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, each with a positive surprise exceeding 5%.
CounterAn in-line quarter in the middle of the streak tempers the narrative, and the average beat of 8.5% is moderate; a softening operating environment for regional banks could quickly narrow the buffer between guidance and actual results.
With the stock just 1.4% below the analyst consensus target of $40.12, the risk/reward sits at approximately 0.3-to-1 against the investor — an unfavorable setup where downside potential substantially outweighs the remaining upside at current prices.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $46 (creating more than 15% upside from current price) or price pulls back meaningfully to restore a favorable risk/reward.
CounterStocks near analyst targets frequently trigger upward target revisions following a strong earnings print; the three-quarter beat streak makes a near-term upgrade plausible.
A confirmed golden cross, a position above all moving averages, an RSI near 58, and a bullish MACD all point to a stock in a technically healthy uptrend that has broken out through prior resistance.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the breakout as a new support level.
CounterThe stock is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range and the Bollinger Band position scores near the bottom of its range, suggesting the price may be stretched relative to its envelope and at risk of consolidation.
A put/call ratio of 2.50 indicates that options market participants are deploying two and a half times as many puts as calls, reflecting substantial hedging against near-term downside that may act as a drag on price appreciation.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.2 as sentiment improves and near-term hedges roll off.
CounterElevated put/call ratios at local price highs can mark sentiment extremes; if the fundamental backdrop holds, the forced cover of those puts could amplify an upward price move.
The company ranks at the top of its regional banking peer group on revenue and earnings growth, with reported growth of roughly 86% year over year — placing it in the industry growth leadership tier.
→StablePeer rank
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 30% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterGrowth rates of this magnitude in regional banking are typically acquisition-driven or reflect low base-year effects; organic growth, net interest margin trends, and credit quality are the more durable metrics to monitor.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 86% YoY
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $25,382 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| beta | 8.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $42.65 has reached target $42.75. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.68
Upside
-6.2%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $42.65 has reached target $42.75. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.8, Peer rank at 4.9, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price Near Target Limits Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target rises above $46, creating more than 15% upside from current price.
- P3Strong Momentum Breakout Confirmed
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and remains below it for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging Overhang
Trip ifPut/call ratio compresses below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Industry Growth Leadership Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.