Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
AUB · Why this verdict
Why Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo (AUB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Atlantic Union Bankshares is a cheaply valued regional bank (forward P/E 9.7x) with strong margins, a 4.1% dividend and a steady earnings record, but price sits within 1.1% of the analyst target, leaving almost no reward for the risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 35% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, but the bank has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 30% as rates and deposit costs evolve. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a moat, margin pressure from deposit competition could erode profitability quickly. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.20. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings continue to grow. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank multiples are low for credit-cycle reasons, and ROE scores only 3.6, so the discount may be justified. | ||
EPS has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses and an average surprise of 5.8%. Earnings track record | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2027-01-21 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest quarter was only in line (0.96 versus 0.96), suggesting the beat cushion is narrowing. | ||
Upside to the $39.69 analyst target is only 1.1% from $39.27, against 6.2% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.17. Upside pct | Price needs upward target revisions or a pullback to restore a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (8 analysts), and targets often lag after a breakout with a golden cross. | ||
The dividend yields 4.1% with dividend safety scoring 8.0 out of 10. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 11.00 shows heavy hedging, and bank payouts can be cut if credit losses rise. | ||
Margins are strong at 35% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, but the bank has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 30% as rates and deposit costs evolve.
CounterWithout a moat, margin pressure from deposit competition could erode profitability quickly.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.20.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings continue to grow.
CounterRegional bank multiples are low for credit-cycle reasons, and ROE scores only 3.6, so the discount may be justified.
EPS has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses and an average surprise of 5.8%.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2027-01-21 report.
CounterThe latest quarter was only in line (0.96 versus 0.96), suggesting the beat cushion is narrowing.
Upside to the $39.69 analyst target is only 1.1% from $39.27, against 6.2% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.17.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price needs upward target revisions or a pullback to restore a favorable reward-to-risk ratio.
CounterCoverage is light (8 analysts), and targets often lag after a breakout with a golden cross.
The dividend yields 4.1% with dividend safety scoring 8.0 out of 10.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months.
CounterA put/call ratio of 11.00 shows heavy hedging, and bank payouts can be cut if credit losses rise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $309,840 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.67
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.2%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Momentum at 7.2, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 13x from the current 9.7x.
- P2Steady Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the $39.69 analyst target, taking upside below 0% from the current 1.1%.
- P4Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 35%.
- P5Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.0.