Value
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 139.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
ATRC · Why this verdict
Why AtriCure (ATRC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AtriCure is a wide-moat medical device company with excellent cash conversion and a perfect Piotroski score, but price is 18.2% above the analyst target, forward P/E is 141x and earnings land in 2 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is strong: free cash flow is 463% of net income, the Piotroski F-Score is 9 out of 9 and the company has a wide economic moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and the F-Score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterRule of 40 is only 21 (fail) and ROE is thin, so high cash conversion may reflect low reported earnings rather than superior economics. | ||
Price of $61.25 is 18.2% above the $50.07 analyst target, so there is no upside to the target and reward-to-risk is negative. Upside pct | Analyst targets are revised above the current price, or the stock retraces toward the $59.28 entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (9 analysts), so targets may be stale after a run to near the 52-week high. | ||
Earnings have beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, including an EPS of 0.18 versus 0.02 expected in July 2026. Earnings track record | EPS beats again at the 2026-11-03 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats come off tiny estimates, one quarter has no reported actual, and a stock near its 52-week high leaves little margin for disappointment in 2 days. | ||
Valuation is stretched on earnings, with a forward P/E of 141.1x, although the PEG ratio is 0.13 on rapid earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 100x as earnings scale. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.13 suggests growth justifies the multiple, and earnings growth scores 10 out of 10. | ||
Supply risk is concentrated in single and limited source third-party vendors, with implied volatility at 149%. Bear case | No vendor disruption interrupts product supply over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLoss of a single-source vendor would halt production of key devices with no quick substitute. | ||
Quality is strong: free cash flow is 463% of net income, the Piotroski F-Score is 9 out of 9 and the company has a wide economic moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and the F-Score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterRule of 40 is only 21 (fail) and ROE is thin, so high cash conversion may reflect low reported earnings rather than superior economics.
Price of $61.25 is 18.2% above the $50.07 analyst target, so there is no upside to the target and reward-to-risk is negative.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised above the current price, or the stock retraces toward the $59.28 entry level.
CounterCoverage is light (9 analysts), so targets may be stale after a run to near the 52-week high.
Earnings have beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, including an EPS of 0.18 versus 0.02 expected in July 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats again at the 2026-11-03 report.
CounterBeats come off tiny estimates, one quarter has no reported actual, and a stock near its 52-week high leaves little margin for disappointment in 2 days.
Valuation is stretched on earnings, with a forward P/E of 141.1x, although the PEG ratio is 0.13 on rapid earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 100x as earnings scale.
CounterA PEG of 0.13 suggests growth justifies the multiple, and earnings growth scores 10 out of 10.
Supply risk is concentrated in single and limited source third-party vendors, with implied volatility at 149%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No vendor disruption interrupts product supply over 12 months.
CounterLoss of a single-source vendor would halt production of key devices with no quick substitute.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 463% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 21 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,626,003 (0.053% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.18
Upside
-17.1%
Downside
14.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5. Top dim: Catalyst at 8.2; weakest: Insider at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.2, Momentum at 7.9, and Growth at 7.8; the weakest are Insider at 4.7, Technical at 4.8, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Conversion Wide Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 463%.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 30% from the current 18.2%.
- P3Earnings Beat Momentum
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 160x from the current 141.1x.
- P5Limited Source Supplier Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below the $55.34 stop level from the current $61.25.