Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ASTS · Why this verdict
Why AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AST SpaceMobile is a speculative, cash-burning name with weak business quality (2.3/10) but a wide analyst-target gap and industry-leading growth rank. The case rests on analyst upside outweighing severe financial and trading risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak: free cash flow is -1561% of revenue and quality scores 2.3, below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn as a share of revenue narrows materially over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA pre-scale infrastructure build naturally shows extreme burn; a high current ratio of 5 gives runway, so low quality scores may overstate the risk. | ||
The company ranks as an industry growth leader with a peer growth rank of 10.0 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | Growth rank holds near the top of its peer group as revenue begins to scale. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth from a near-zero revenue base is easy to rank highly and does not prove a durable business; no competitive moat was found. | ||
The analyst target of $64.97 implies 58.6% upside from the current $40.97 price, with reward-to-risk of 3.91 against a 15% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price converges toward the analyst target as execution milestones are met. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets on pre-revenue companies are speculative and a 13% haircut may not be enough; the stock sits 69% below its 52-week high. | ||
Momentum is a confirmed downtrend: price is below the 200-day average with a -5.1% per 30-day slope, though rising on-balance volume signals accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAccumulation signals can precede further declines, and the -69% drawdown shows how sharply sentiment can reverse. | ||
Trading risk is elevated: short interest is 22%, the put/call ratio is 1.40 and implied volatility is 116%. Key risks | Short interest and implied volatility ease as the business matures. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest can fuel squeezes, so the positioning could turn into a tailwind rather than a risk. | ||
Business quality is weak: free cash flow is -1561% of revenue and quality scores 2.3, below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn as a share of revenue narrows materially over the next 12 months.
CounterA pre-scale infrastructure build naturally shows extreme burn; a high current ratio of 5 gives runway, so low quality scores may overstate the risk.
The company ranks as an industry growth leader with a peer growth rank of 10.0 out of 10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth rank holds near the top of its peer group as revenue begins to scale.
CounterGrowth from a near-zero revenue base is easy to rank highly and does not prove a durable business; no competitive moat was found.
The analyst target of $64.97 implies 58.6% upside from the current $40.97 price, with reward-to-risk of 3.91 against a 15% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the analyst target as execution milestones are met.
CounterAnalyst targets on pre-revenue companies are speculative and a 13% haircut may not be enough; the stock sits 69% below its 52-week high.
Momentum is a confirmed downtrend: price is below the 200-day average with a -5.1% per 30-day slope, though rising on-balance volume signals accumulation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterAccumulation signals can precede further declines, and the -69% drawdown shows how sharply sentiment can reverse.
Trading risk is elevated: short interest is 22%, the put/call ratio is 1.40 and implied volatility is 116%.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest and implied volatility ease as the business matures.
CounterHigh short interest can fuel squeezes, so the positioning could turn into a tailwind rather than a risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1561% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 147%
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.1 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,444,680 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 10.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.3 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.5 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 22%
- ▸High IV: 158%
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:7.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
7.66
Upside
+114.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -77% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 7.66.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 6.8, and Technical at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Quality at 2.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burn Quality Weakness
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 1561% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Target Upside Gap
Trip ifAnalyst upside to target falls below 20% from the current 58.6%.
- P3Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifPeer growth rank drops below 5.0 from the current 10.0.
- P4Downtrend Momentum Risk
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 5.3.
- P5Short Interest Volatility Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% from the current 22%.