Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.88
- ▸Attractively valued
ASTE · Why this verdict
Why Astec Industries (ASTE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Astec Industries is growing revenue about 24% YoY at a 10.0x forward P/E and trades 45.6% below its $57.16 analyst target, but quality is below the minimum bar (3.3/10), the last two quarters missed estimates and earnings are due in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.3/10, with free cash flow at -6% of net income flagged as an earnings-quality red flag and net margin scoring just 0.6. Quality breakdown | Quality should recover above 4.0/10 and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9 and the current ratio scores 8.6, so the balance sheet is sound and the low score may reflect a cyclical earnings dip. | ||
Revenue is growing about 24% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $408.1M in June 2026 versus $330.3M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above $400M and growth should stay above 10% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $375M is below the latest $408M, and earnings growth scores 0.0/10, so top-line growth is not reaching profits. | ||
Astec missed EPS estimates in the last 2 quarters (-9.2% in August 2026 and -35.5% in May 2026) after two beats, with an average surprise of 1.7% and a report due 2026-11-05. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat estimates at the report on 2026-11-05 to restore the earlier beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterBefore these misses Astec posted strong beats of 58.6%, 91.3% and 63.0%, so the miss pair may be a temporary stumble. | ||
Price is 45.6% below the $57.16 analyst target while downside to the stop is only 5.8%, a reward-to-risk of 7.91. Estimated upside | The analyst target should hold near $57.16 while price recovers from $39.27. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets may be stale after the recent earnings misses, so the apparent upside could shrink once estimates are revised. | ||
Despite a death cross, the MACD is improving and RSI is 49, with rising on-balance volume pointing to accumulation in a recovery setup. Chart pattern detection | Momentum should stay above 5.0/10 and price should hold above the $37.01 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains below its 200-day average with a 1.7% 30-day slope decline, a confirmed downtrend, and implied volatility is high at 93%. | ||
Quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.3/10, with free cash flow at -6% of net income flagged as an earnings-quality red flag and net margin scoring just 0.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should recover above 4.0/10 and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9 and the current ratio scores 8.6, so the balance sheet is sound and the low score may reflect a cyclical earnings dip.
Revenue is growing about 24% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $408.1M in June 2026 versus $330.3M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above $400M and growth should stay above 10% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $375M is below the latest $408M, and earnings growth scores 0.0/10, so top-line growth is not reaching profits.
Astec missed EPS estimates in the last 2 quarters (-9.2% in August 2026 and -35.5% in May 2026) after two beats, with an average surprise of 1.7% and a report due 2026-11-05.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates at the report on 2026-11-05 to restore the earlier beat pattern.
CounterBefore these misses Astec posted strong beats of 58.6%, 91.3% and 63.0%, so the miss pair may be a temporary stumble.
Price is 45.6% below the $57.16 analyst target while downside to the stop is only 5.8%, a reward-to-risk of 7.91.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The analyst target should hold near $57.16 while price recovers from $39.27.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets may be stale after the recent earnings misses, so the apparent upside could shrink once estimates are revised.
Despite a death cross, the MACD is improving and RSI is 49, with rising on-balance volume pointing to accumulation in a recovery setup.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum should stay above 5.0/10 and price should hold above the $37.01 stop.
CounterThe stock remains below its 200-day average with a 1.7% 30-day slope decline, a confirmed downtrend, and implied volatility is high at 93%.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -6% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:7.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
7.11
Upside
+46.9%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of 7.11.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.6; the weakest are Quality at 3.3, Momentum at 3.4, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% YoY from current 24%.
- P2Below Floor Quality Weak Cash
Trip ifQuality score rises above 5.0/10 from current 3.3.
- P3Recent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Large Analyst Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $45 from current $57.16.
- P5Recovery Setup After Death Cross
Trip ifShare price falls below $37.01 from current $39.27.