Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.51
- ▸Attractively valued
ASB · Why this verdict
Why Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial loans represent 65% of the total loan book, and OCC regulatory exposure creates a concentration risk that could amplify losses if commercial real estate or business credit conditions deteriorate. Bear case | Commercial loan concentration declines below 60% of the total portfolio over the next four quarters as the mix diversifies. | →Stable |
| CounterA 65% commercial loan concentration has been maintained through multiple credit cycles with no apparent loss events; if underwriting standards are sound, concentration alone does not create a loss trigger. | ||
Every one of the last four quarters has beaten analyst estimates — with individual surprises of 2%, 14%, 8%, and 6% and an average positive surprise of roughly 8% — indicating management's disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery. Earnings | The beat streak extends through the next two quarterly reports, sustaining an average earnings surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent beat was the narrowest of the four at just over 2%; if consensus continues tightening upward after each report, the guidance buffer erodes and the next quarter could produce an in-line or miss result. | ||
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, positioning above all key moving averages, and a bullish MACD together signal broad-based buying interest that has built a durable technical floor. Momentum breakdown | The golden cross remains intact and the price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next six months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank stocks are sensitive to interest-rate and credit-cycle turns; if credit conditions deteriorate, technically overbought breadth can reverse quickly, particularly for names where momentum has already done much of the work. | ||
With the price just below the resistance target — only 0.5% of headroom remaining — and the reward-to-risk at 0.12-to-1, the risk/reward has become unfavorable and the setup offers no compelling reason to add exposure at current levels. Price targets | A meaningful new entry opportunity emerges only if the price pulls back and upside to the resistance target expands beyond 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterIf earnings beats continue to push analyst price targets higher, the resistance level may migrate upward, restoring the risk/reward without requiring a price pullback. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9x and a PEG ratio of 0.49 reflect genuine value in the underlying franchise, providing a floor if near-term price momentum stalls. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E remains below 11x over the next four quarters, preserving the valuation cushion relative to sector peers. | →Stable |
| CounterA low forward P/E for a regional bank can reflect market skepticism about loan-book quality rather than true undervaluation; if credit costs rise, the earnings base that supports the 9x multiple contracts, making the valuation less attractive. | ||
Commercial loans represent 65% of the total loan book, and OCC regulatory exposure creates a concentration risk that could amplify losses if commercial real estate or business credit conditions deteriorate.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial loan concentration declines below 60% of the total portfolio over the next four quarters as the mix diversifies.
CounterA 65% commercial loan concentration has been maintained through multiple credit cycles with no apparent loss events; if underwriting standards are sound, concentration alone does not create a loss trigger.
Every one of the last four quarters has beaten analyst estimates — with individual surprises of 2%, 14%, 8%, and 6% and an average positive surprise of roughly 8% — indicating management's disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends through the next two quarterly reports, sustaining an average earnings surprise above 5%.
CounterThe most recent beat was the narrowest of the four at just over 2%; if consensus continues tightening upward after each report, the guidance buffer erodes and the next quarter could produce an in-line or miss result.
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, positioning above all key moving averages, and a bullish MACD together signal broad-based buying interest that has built a durable technical floor.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The golden cross remains intact and the price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next six months.
CounterRegional bank stocks are sensitive to interest-rate and credit-cycle turns; if credit conditions deteriorate, technically overbought breadth can reverse quickly, particularly for names where momentum has already done much of the work.
With the price just below the resistance target — only 0.5% of headroom remaining — and the reward-to-risk at 0.12-to-1, the risk/reward has become unfavorable and the setup offers no compelling reason to add exposure at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A meaningful new entry opportunity emerges only if the price pulls back and upside to the resistance target expands beyond 10%.
CounterIf earnings beats continue to push analyst price targets higher, the resistance level may migrate upward, restoring the risk/reward without requiring a price pullback.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9x and a PEG ratio of 0.49 reflect genuine value in the underlying franchise, providing a floor if near-term price momentum stalls.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E remains below 11x over the next four quarters, preserving the valuation cushion relative to sector peers.
CounterA low forward P/E for a regional bank can reflect market skepticism about loan-book quality rather than true undervaluation; if credit costs rise, the earnings base that supports the 9x multiple contracts, making the valuation less attractive.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 8%, a golden cross, and all moving averages aligned upward confirm the underlying franchise quality; however, the price is just below the resistance target with only 0.5% headroom remaining and the risk/reward has turned unfavorable at 0.12-to-1 — the setup supports holding an existing position but does not compel new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.9 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.59 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,646,401 (0.028% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 8.4 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $30.70 has reached target $30.87. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 16d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Peer rank at 5.5, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P2Strong Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 15 consecutive trading days.
- P3Price Target Exhaustion
Trip ifUpside to the resistance target expands beyond 10% from current 0.5% following a price pullback.
- P4Commercial Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifCommercial loan concentration falls below 55% of the total loan portfolio for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P5Attractive Fundamental Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 12x from the current 9.0x as the stock re-rates or EPS estimates are revised down.