Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.51
- ▸Attractively valued
ASB · Why this verdict
Why Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Associated Banc-Corp is a cheaply valued regional bank (forward P/E 8.9x) with strong margins and a breakout chart, but the price is already 1.5% above the $29.84 analyst target and 65% of loans are commercial, so upside is exhausted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial loans make up 65.0% of the loan portfolio, with OCC regulation flagged as a second concentration risk, so credit quality in commercial lending drives results. Bear case | The commercial loan share should not rise above 65% and credit losses should stay contained over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA commercial-heavy book is exposed to commercial real estate and business downturns, and a regulatory action by the OCC could restrict growth or capital returns. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.9x with a PEG of 0.51, an attractively valued profile with a value score of 8.0/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 11x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks routinely trade at single-digit multiples, and a 3.3% dividend with no competitive moat suggests the low multiple may be fair, not a bargain. | ||
Margins are strong at 32% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with growth of 22% YoY supporting the earnings base. Quality breakdown | Net margin should hold above 25% and the Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7/9 or better. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReturn on equity (3.4) and return on assets (0.7) component scores are weak, and the business has no competitive moat, so strong margins may not hold through a credit cycle. | ||
The price of $30.30 is already 1.5% above the $29.84 analyst target, so reward-to-risk is negative at -0.21 against 7.4% downside to the stop. Estimated upside | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price before upside returns. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA golden cross with RSI 68 and bullish MACD signals a breakout, and analyst targets usually lag, so revisions could soon restore upside. | ||
The last 4 quarters show 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result, with an average surprise of only 1.0% and a 12.4% miss in July 2026 (0.63 vs 0.72). Earnings | EPS should meet or beat estimates at the next report on 2027-01-21 to restore the earlier beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank beat in 8 of the 10 quarters before the July 2026 miss, and the October 2026 result (0.76) was in line, suggesting the miss was one-off. | ||
Commercial loans make up 65.0% of the loan portfolio, with OCC regulation flagged as a second concentration risk, so credit quality in commercial lending drives results.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The commercial loan share should not rise above 65% and credit losses should stay contained over the next 12 months.
CounterA commercial-heavy book is exposed to commercial real estate and business downturns, and a regulatory action by the OCC could restrict growth or capital returns.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.9x with a PEG of 0.51, an attractively valued profile with a value score of 8.0/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 11x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional banks routinely trade at single-digit multiples, and a 3.3% dividend with no competitive moat suggests the low multiple may be fair, not a bargain.
Margins are strong at 32% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with growth of 22% YoY supporting the earnings base.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should hold above 25% and the Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7/9 or better.
CounterReturn on equity (3.4) and return on assets (0.7) component scores are weak, and the business has no competitive moat, so strong margins may not hold through a credit cycle.
The price of $30.30 is already 1.5% above the $29.84 analyst target, so reward-to-risk is negative at -0.21 against 7.4% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price before upside returns.
CounterA golden cross with RSI 68 and bullish MACD signals a breakout, and analyst targets usually lag, so revisions could soon restore upside.
The last 4 quarters show 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result, with an average surprise of only 1.0% and a 12.4% miss in July 2026 (0.63 vs 0.72).
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates at the next report on 2027-01-21 to restore the earlier beat streak.
CounterThe bank beat in 8 of the 10 quarters before the July 2026 miss, and the October 2026 result (0.76) was in line, suggesting the miss was one-off.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,957,807 (0.034% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.21
Upside
-1.7%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.1; weakest: Catalyst at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.9, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 8.9x.
- P2Strong Margins Solid Fundamentals
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% from current 32%.
- P3Commercial Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial loans share of the portfolio exceeds 75% from current 65%.
- P4Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $34 from current $29.84.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.