Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.51
- ▸Attractively valued
ASB · Why this verdict
Why Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 8%, a golden cross, and all moving averages aligned upward confirm the underlying franchise quality; however, the price is just below the resistance target with only 0.5% headroom remaining and the risk/reward has turned unfavorable at 0.12-to-1 — the setup supports holding an existing position but does not compel new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial loans represent 65% of the total loan book, and OCC regulatory exposure creates a concentration risk that could amplify losses if commercial real estate or business credit conditions deteriorate. Bear case | Commercial loan concentration declines below 60% of the total portfolio over the next four quarters as the mix diversifies. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 65% commercial loan concentration has been maintained through multiple credit cycles with no apparent loss events; if underwriting standards are sound, concentration alone does not create a loss trigger. | ||
Every one of the last four quarters has beaten analyst estimates — with individual surprises of 2%, 14%, 8%, and 6% and an average positive surprise of roughly 8% — indicating management's disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery. Earnings | The beat streak extends through the next two quarterly reports, sustaining an average earnings surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent beat was the narrowest of the four at just over 2%; if consensus continues tightening upward after each report, the guidance buffer erodes and the next quarter could produce an in-line or miss result. | ||
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, positioning above all key moving averages, and a bullish MACD together signal broad-based buying interest that has built a durable technical floor. Momentum breakdown | The golden cross remains intact and the price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next six months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank stocks are sensitive to interest-rate and credit-cycle turns; if credit conditions deteriorate, technically overbought breadth can reverse quickly, particularly for names where momentum has already done much of the work. | ||
With the price just below the resistance target — only 0.5% of headroom remaining — and the reward-to-risk at 0.12-to-1, the risk/reward has become unfavorable and the setup offers no compelling reason to add exposure at current levels. Price targets | A meaningful new entry opportunity emerges only if the price pulls back and upside to the resistance target expands beyond 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterIf earnings beats continue to push analyst price targets higher, the resistance level may migrate upward, restoring the risk/reward without requiring a price pullback. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9x and a PEG ratio of 0.49 reflect genuine value in the underlying franchise, providing a floor if near-term price momentum stalls. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E remains below 11x over the next four quarters, preserving the valuation cushion relative to sector peers. | →Stable |
| CounterA low forward P/E for a regional bank can reflect market skepticism about loan-book quality rather than true undervaluation; if credit costs rise, the earnings base that supports the 9x multiple contracts, making the valuation less attractive. | ||
Commercial loans represent 65% of the total loan book, and OCC regulatory exposure creates a concentration risk that could amplify losses if commercial real estate or business credit conditions deteriorate.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial loan concentration declines below 60% of the total portfolio over the next four quarters as the mix diversifies.
CounterA 65% commercial loan concentration has been maintained through multiple credit cycles with no apparent loss events; if underwriting standards are sound, concentration alone does not create a loss trigger.
Every one of the last four quarters has beaten analyst estimates — with individual surprises of 2%, 14%, 8%, and 6% and an average positive surprise of roughly 8% — indicating management's disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends through the next two quarterly reports, sustaining an average earnings surprise above 5%.
CounterThe most recent beat was the narrowest of the four at just over 2%; if consensus continues tightening upward after each report, the guidance buffer erodes and the next quarter could produce an in-line or miss result.
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, positioning above all key moving averages, and a bullish MACD together signal broad-based buying interest that has built a durable technical floor.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The golden cross remains intact and the price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next six months.
CounterRegional bank stocks are sensitive to interest-rate and credit-cycle turns; if credit conditions deteriorate, technically overbought breadth can reverse quickly, particularly for names where momentum has already done much of the work.
With the price just below the resistance target — only 0.5% of headroom remaining — and the reward-to-risk at 0.12-to-1, the risk/reward has become unfavorable and the setup offers no compelling reason to add exposure at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A meaningful new entry opportunity emerges only if the price pulls back and upside to the resistance target expands beyond 10%.
CounterIf earnings beats continue to push analyst price targets higher, the resistance level may migrate upward, restoring the risk/reward without requiring a price pullback.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9x and a PEG ratio of 0.49 reflect genuine value in the underlying franchise, providing a floor if near-term price momentum stalls.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E remains below 11x over the next four quarters, preserving the valuation cushion relative to sector peers.
CounterA low forward P/E for a regional bank can reflect market skepticism about loan-book quality rather than true undervaluation; if credit costs rise, the earnings base that supports the 9x multiple contracts, making the valuation less attractive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,646,401 (0.028% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.5/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.32
Upside
-7.0%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 8.5 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.5, Value at 7.9, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Peer rank at 5.5, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.32 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P2Strong Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 15 consecutive trading days.
- P3Price Target Exhaustion
Trip ifUpside to the resistance target expands beyond 10% from current 0.5% following a price pullback.
- P4Commercial Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifCommercial loan concentration falls below 55% of the total loan portfolio for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P5Attractive Fundamental Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 12x from the current 9.0x as the stock re-rates or EPS estimates are revised down.