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Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and CRE loans (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Associated Banc-Corp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, with 184 banking branches across Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri. It operates through Corporate and Commercial Specialty, Community/Consumer/Business, and Risk Management segments.... Read more

$28.26+8.9% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#51 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $25.81(200-day MA)Stop $24.69Target $28.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$30.80+9.0%10 analysts
$28.11our TP
$28.26price
$30.80mean
$27
$33

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and CRE loans (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $28.25 has reached target $28.11. No upside to wait for. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and CRE loans (65.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.4%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth12.2%
Beta0.78
Dividend3.41%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$23-20.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantcommercial and CRE loans65%
    10-K Item 1A: '65% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, real estate construction, and CRE loans'
  • MEDIUMTenantCRE loans27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'CRE loans, including owner occupied, investor, and real estate construction loans, totaled $8.4 billion, or 27%, of our total loan portfolio and 183% of total risk-based capital.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Following completion of American National Corporation acquisition, Associated expanded board from 13 to 14 directors by appointing one director from American National. Routine board expansion in connection with acquisition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.45Resistance $28.68

Price Targets

$25
$26
$28
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and CRE loans (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $28.25 has reached target $28.11. No upside to wait for. Target $28.11 (-0.5%), stop $24.69 (−14.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.11 (+8.9% upside). Target $28.11 (-0.5%), stop $24.69 (−14.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $24.69.

What are the risks of investing in ASB?

Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and CRE loans (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

Is ASB overvalued or undervalued?

Associated Banc-Corp trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ASB?

14 analysts cover ASB with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Associated Banc-Corp do?Associated Banc-Corp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, with 184 banking branches across...

Associated Banc-Corp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, with 184 banking branches across Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri. It operates through Corporate and Commercial Specialty, Community/Consumer/Business, and Risk Management segments. In April 2026, it completed the acquisition of American National Corporation.

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