Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.77
AS · Why this verdict
Why Amer Sports (AS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has earned recognition as having a wide economic moat, supported by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a healthy free cash flow quality reading. This combination of structural competitive advantage and financial soundness positions the franchise to sustain returns across multiple market cycles. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 8 out of 9 and free cash flow quality remains positive for the next four consecutive quarters, confirming durable franchise strength. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide moat assessed at a point in time can erode if consumer preferences shift or lower-cost competitors intensify; high leverage on the balance sheet reduces the financial buffer available to defend the competitive position through a demand downturn. | ||
Revenue has grown 32% year over year, and the company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters after an in-line result in the oldest reported period. This cadence of consistent outperformance suggests guidance discipline and underlying demand momentum that has been building. Earnings | Revenue growth remains above 20% year over year for at least two more consecutive quarters, and EPS surprises remain positive. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-growth consumer leisure businesses are sensitive to discretionary spending cycles; a macro demand slowdown or adverse currency moves could disproportionately impair the revenue trajectory relative to current consensus expectations. | ||
With roughly 25% upside to the analyst consensus target and a risk/reward of approximately 2.7-to-1, the stock offers an asymmetric return profile. Analysts as a group see 39% upside from current prices, and the reward-to-risk geometry clears the minimum hurdle threshold. Price targets | Price closes above $44.75—the current consensus target—within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical setup still shows a death cross in recovery rather than full confirmation, and implied volatility of 84% means price can remain suppressed well below the analyst target for an extended period even if the fundamental case is correct. | ||
The stock triggered a death cross, but MACD is improving and RSI has stabilized around 44, suggesting the momentum deterioration may be reversing. Volume has been accumulating and the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, consistent with a pullback in an uptrend rather than a confirmed structural break lower. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 55 and MACD crosses into positive territory for two consecutive months, confirming the momentum recovery is complete. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath cross signals historically carry follow-through selling pressure; if the MACD improvement stalls or volume accumulation reverses, the technical picture could worsen before the fundamental case reasserts itself. | ||
The business has earned recognition as having a wide economic moat, supported by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a healthy free cash flow quality reading. This combination of structural competitive advantage and financial soundness positions the franchise to sustain returns across multiple market cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 8 out of 9 and free cash flow quality remains positive for the next four consecutive quarters, confirming durable franchise strength.
CounterA wide moat assessed at a point in time can erode if consumer preferences shift or lower-cost competitors intensify; high leverage on the balance sheet reduces the financial buffer available to defend the competitive position through a demand downturn.
Revenue has grown 32% year over year, and the company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters after an in-line result in the oldest reported period. This cadence of consistent outperformance suggests guidance discipline and underlying demand momentum that has been building.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year over year for at least two more consecutive quarters, and EPS surprises remain positive.
CounterHigh-growth consumer leisure businesses are sensitive to discretionary spending cycles; a macro demand slowdown or adverse currency moves could disproportionately impair the revenue trajectory relative to current consensus expectations.
With roughly 25% upside to the analyst consensus target and a risk/reward of approximately 2.7-to-1, the stock offers an asymmetric return profile. Analysts as a group see 39% upside from current prices, and the reward-to-risk geometry clears the minimum hurdle threshold.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes above $44.75—the current consensus target—within 12 months.
CounterThe technical setup still shows a death cross in recovery rather than full confirmation, and implied volatility of 84% means price can remain suppressed well below the analyst target for an extended period even if the fundamental case is correct.
The stock triggered a death cross, but MACD is improving and RSI has stabilized around 44, suggesting the momentum deterioration may be reversing. Volume has been accumulating and the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, consistent with a pullback in an uptrend rather than a confirmed structural break lower.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 55 and MACD crosses into positive territory for two consecutive months, confirming the momentum recovery is complete.
CounterDeath cross signals historically carry follow-through selling pressure; if the MACD improvement stalls or volume accumulation reverses, the technical picture could worsen before the fundamental case reasserts itself.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, 32% revenue growth, and a risk/reward of roughly 2.7-to-1 with 25% upside to the analyst target define a high-quality growth setup; the primary near-term caveat is a technical death cross that, while showing early signs of recovery with MACD improving and RSI stabilizing at 44, has not yet fully confirmed the reversal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.6 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $29,857,193 (0.146% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 5.0 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.1 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:46d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
3.90
Upside
+28.7%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.06>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.1; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Sentiment at 8.1, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Momentum at 4.9, and Technical at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Franchise
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating broad-based deterioration in the quality franchise.
- P2Strong Growth Beat Streak
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Favorable Risk Reward Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $39.00, compressing remaining upside to less than 9% and weakening the risk/reward thesis.
- P4Death Cross Momentum Recovery
Trip ifRSI falls below 30 and on-balance volume resumes a declining trend for 2 consecutive months, confirming the momentum recovery has failed.