Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.50
- ▸Attractively valued
AS · Why this verdict
Why Amer Sports (AS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amer Sports is a wide-moat growth leader (32% YoY growth, forward P/E 17.8x) trading 44.5% below its $42.52 analyst target, but it sits in a confirmed downtrend with a high-beta, cyclical consumer profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Amer Sports is growing strongly at 32% YoY and ranks as an industry growth leader, with a growth score of 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and consumer cyclical leisure spending is discretionary, so a slowdown would hit growth quickly. | ||
The business has a wide economic moat (score 7.9) and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting durable franchise quality. Quality breakdown | The moat and Piotroski score should hold, with the quality score improving from 5.9/10 toward 7/10 as margins expand. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin (3.2), net margin (3.7) and return on equity (3.0) component scores are weak, so the franchise strength is not yet turning into profitability. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17.8x with a PEG of 0.48, attractively valued relative to its growth, with a value score of 7.4/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 22x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe sector modifier for Consumer Cyclical is -1.5 and a discretionary downturn could cut earnings estimates, making the forward multiple look higher. | ||
Price is 44.5% below the $42.52 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.1%, a reward-to-risk of 4.86. Estimated upside | The analyst target should hold near $42.52 as the price recovers from $29.43. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a beta above 2.0 and a death cross, analyst targets may be cut if consumer spending weakens, shrinking the apparent upside. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down 4.1% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, though rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD point to a recovery attempt. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should hold above 5.5/10 and price should reclaim its 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross with 11% short interest and high implied volatility of 65% suggests the downtrend may extend before any recovery. | ||
Amer Sports is growing strongly at 32% YoY and ranks as an industry growth leader, with a growth score of 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and consumer cyclical leisure spending is discretionary, so a slowdown would hit growth quickly.
The business has a wide economic moat (score 7.9) and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting durable franchise quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The moat and Piotroski score should hold, with the quality score improving from 5.9/10 toward 7/10 as margins expand.
CounterOperating margin (3.2), net margin (3.7) and return on equity (3.0) component scores are weak, so the franchise strength is not yet turning into profitability.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17.8x with a PEG of 0.48, attractively valued relative to its growth, with a value score of 7.4/10.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 22x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterThe sector modifier for Consumer Cyclical is -1.5 and a discretionary downturn could cut earnings estimates, making the forward multiple look higher.
Price is 44.5% below the $42.52 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.1%, a reward-to-risk of 4.86.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The analyst target should hold near $42.52 as the price recovers from $29.43.
CounterWith a beta above 2.0 and a death cross, analyst targets may be cut if consumer spending weakens, shrinking the apparent upside.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down 4.1% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, though rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD point to a recovery attempt.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should hold above 5.5/10 and price should reclaim its 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterA death cross with 11% short interest and high implied volatility of 65% suggests the downtrend may extend before any recovery.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,181,930 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $22
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.18
Upside
+32.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.97>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.18 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Peer rank at 5.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY from current 32%.
- P2Wide Moat Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from current 9/9.
- P3Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from current 17.8x.
- P4Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $33 from current $42.52.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Recovery Test
Trip ifShare price falls below the $27.61 stop from current $29.43.