Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.84
ARMK · Why this verdict
Why Aramark (ARMK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aramark offers 14.3% upside to the analyst target with reward-to-risk of 2.46 and solid momentum, but quality is below the 4.0 floor with no moat, thin margins and ongoing insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and thin net margin, limiting durability of earnings. Quality breakdown | Quality rises above 4.0 as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterContract services businesses have recurring customer relationships that can produce stable cash flow even without a classic moat. | ||
Upside to the $61.68 analyst target is 14.3% against 5.8% downside, a reward-to-risk of 2.46, with analyst upside of 27% before haircut. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the $61.68 target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst rating score of 8.72 is strong, but targets can be revised down if growth slows, and quality is below the minimum floor. | ||
Aramark beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters but missed by 12.7% in November 2025, for an average surprise of -0.6%, with the next report due November 16. Earnings | The November 16 report delivers a positive surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterThe last two reports beat, and the recent trend of improving surprises (0.3%, 2.7%, 7.2%) is positive. | ||
Momentum scores 6.9 with rising OBV volume accumulation and price above the 200-day average, and institutions are accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Momentum stays above 5.5 and price keeps holding above the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe put/call ratio component is extreme and short-interest-related risk scores are elevated, so sentiment could turn quickly. | ||
Insiders sold $4.31M across 2 sales in 90 days with no purchases, and 71.0% of revenue comes from the United States. Insider | Insider selling stops and net flow turns neutral. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is only 0.030% of market cap and U.S. concentration reflects the core market rather than a specific vulnerability. | ||
Quality scores 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and thin net margin, limiting durability of earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality rises above 4.0 as margins improve.
CounterContract services businesses have recurring customer relationships that can produce stable cash flow even without a classic moat.
Upside to the $61.68 analyst target is 14.3% against 5.8% downside, a reward-to-risk of 2.46, with analyst upside of 27% before haircut.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $61.68 target over the next 12 months.
CounterThe analyst rating score of 8.72 is strong, but targets can be revised down if growth slows, and quality is below the minimum floor.
Aramark beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters but missed by 12.7% in November 2025, for an average surprise of -0.6%, with the next report due November 16.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 16 report delivers a positive surprise.
CounterThe last two reports beat, and the recent trend of improving surprises (0.3%, 2.7%, 7.2%) is positive.
Momentum scores 6.9 with rising OBV volume accumulation and price above the 200-day average, and institutions are accumulating.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 and price keeps holding above the 200-day average.
CounterThe put/call ratio component is extreme and short-interest-related risk scores are elevated, so sentiment could turn quickly.
Insiders sold $4.31M across 2 sales in 90 days with no purchases, and 71.0% of revenue comes from the United States.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops and net flow turns neutral.
CounterThe selling is only 0.030% of market cap and U.S. concentration reflects the core market rather than a specific vulnerability.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.7 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,310,718 (0.030% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
3.02
Upside
+20.7%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.0<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 3.02.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Technical at 7.8, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Quality at 3.6, and Catalyst at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Upside Favorable Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice falls below the $50.82 stop level, more than 5.8% below $53.96.
- P2Low Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.6 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the November 16 report.
- P4Accumulation Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from current 6.9.
- P5Insider Selling Geographic Concentration
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $10M over a 90-day window.