Aris Mining (ARIS) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.35
- Estimate
- $0.39
- Surprise
- -10.3%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $295.4M
- Score today
- 6.4/10
Revenue source: yfinance_provisional (provisional — SEC XBRL not yet filed for this period).
How the report landed
Aris Mining (ARIS) missed the $0.39 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.35 — a large 10.3% shortfall.
Coverage in the report window
- Ariston Cuts 2026 Guidance Following Third-Quarter Results — fiscal.ai, 2026-11-04
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates ARIS Buy (Wait) at 6.4/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -10.3% surprise compares with a +2.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-03-10.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
- Negative momentum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $15.65
- Entry target
- $14.75
- Price target
- $31.45
- Stop
- $13.72
- Upside to target
- +101.0%
- Reward-to-risk
- 8.3:1
The stock trades at 10.4× trailing but 5.6× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-07 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
ARIS at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Gold
- Market cap
- $3.23B
- P/E (fwd)
- 5.6
- P/E (ttm)
- 10.4
- 52-week range
- $9.55–$23.29
- Off 52-week high
- 32.8%
- RSI (14)
- 39
- Volume vs avg
- 0.87×
- Score today
- 6.4/10