Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 5.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.36
- ▸Attractively valued
APOG · Why this verdict
Why Apogee Enterprises (APOG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
APOG combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an attractive valuation, but declining revenue, a lagging quality profile, and stalled momentum after already reaching its price target keep the setup mixed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last four quarters and trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E near 10.4x and a PEG of 1.32. Bull case | The beat streak should continue and the valuation discount should persist or narrow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak revenue growth undercuts the durability of the beat streak, since beats driven by cost control rather than top-line strength are harder to sustain indefinitely. | ||
Revenue growth is weak, declining roughly 1% year-over-year, a headwind to the broader investment case despite the attractive valuation. Bear case | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months, reversing the current year-over-year decline. | →Stable |
| CounterA building-products company facing softer construction demand may see revenue stay flat or decline further for an extended cyclical stretch rather than quickly reversing. | ||
Business quality lags, with no clear competitive moat identified despite strong cash conversion and a solid Piotroski score. Key risks | The quality score should improve toward a stronger level over the next 12 months as profitability and competitive positioning strengthen. | →Stable |
| CounterExcellent cash conversion at 150% of net income and a strong Piotroski score already suggest solid financial execution, so the moat gap may not meaningfully change the investment outcome. | ||
Price momentum has stalled just below the engine's minimum bar, with on-balance volume in a distribution pattern and the moving-average slope gone flat. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should reaccelerate over the next 12 months, with volume flows shifting back to accumulation and the moving-average slope turning positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFlat momentum paired with declining revenue could persist or worsen rather than reaccelerate if end-market demand stays soft. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, suggesting limited further upside from current levels absent a new catalyst. Bear case | A fresh catalyst, such as improving revenue trends or an analyst target increase, should be needed over the next 12 months to justify further gains. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means the current target may not reflect the latest beat streak and could still be raised meaningfully. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last four quarters and trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E near 10.4x and a PEG of 1.32.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue and the valuation discount should persist or narrow over the next 12 months.
CounterWeak revenue growth undercuts the durability of the beat streak, since beats driven by cost control rather than top-line strength are harder to sustain indefinitely.
Revenue growth is weak, declining roughly 1% year-over-year, a headwind to the broader investment case despite the attractive valuation.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months, reversing the current year-over-year decline.
CounterA building-products company facing softer construction demand may see revenue stay flat or decline further for an extended cyclical stretch rather than quickly reversing.
Business quality lags, with no clear competitive moat identified despite strong cash conversion and a solid Piotroski score.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The quality score should improve toward a stronger level over the next 12 months as profitability and competitive positioning strengthen.
CounterExcellent cash conversion at 150% of net income and a strong Piotroski score already suggest solid financial execution, so the moat gap may not meaningfully change the investment outcome.
Price momentum has stalled just below the engine's minimum bar, with on-balance volume in a distribution pattern and the moving-average slope gone flat.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should reaccelerate over the next 12 months, with volume flows shifting back to accumulation and the moving-average slope turning positive.
CounterFlat momentum paired with declining revenue could persist or worsen rather than reaccelerate if end-market demand stays soft.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, suggesting limited further upside from current levels absent a new catalyst.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A fresh catalyst, such as improving revenue trends or an analyst target increase, should be needed over the next 12 months to justify further gains.
CounterLight analyst coverage means the current target may not reflect the latest beat streak and could still be raised meaningfully.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 150% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.14
Upside
-12.0%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Growth at 2.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.2, Technical at 3.9, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Beat Streak Attractive Valuation
Trip ifEarnings surprise turns negative in at least 1 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive, exceeding 3% YoY.
- P3No Competitive Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 6.5 from the current 4.7.
- P4Stalled Momentum Distribution
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 6.5 from the current 4.2.
- P5Limited Upside At Target
Trip ifShares rise more than 15% above the current analyst price target.