Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.41
APH · Why this verdict
Why Amphenol (APH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 58% year-over-year, placing this in the top tier of growth rates in its peer group, and the PEG of 1.36 suggests the market is not yet pricing the full value of the growth rate into the multiple—making this a growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity on a fundamental basis. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth exceeds 20% year-over-year for at least two of the next four quarters, confirming the trajectory is sustaining at a level that justifies the premium multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterA 58% revenue growth figure may embed an unusually favorable prior-year base, and the most recent quarter produced an earnings miss of 24%—the first in at least four quarters—raising the question of whether cost structure is scaling proportionally with the revenue line. | ||
With approximately 65% of revenues from non-U.S. markets and a flagged single-source supplier dependency, the business carries two distinct concentration risks that could disrupt revenue and operations if regional demand softens or supply is interrupted. Bear case | Non-U.S. revenue share declines below 55% of total, or the company publicly diversifies its critical supplier base to at least two qualified sources within 12 months, reducing both concentration exposures. | →Stable |
| CounterA global footprint in electronic components is a competitive strength that enables the business to serve multinational customers; geographic diversification across many non-U.S. markets may offset the headline concentration number if no single region dominates the international mix. | ||
A return on equity of 37%, operating margins of 17%, strong free cash flow conversion at 80% of net income, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 mark this as a high-quality business that consistently generates returns well above typical peers in its sector. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 15% and return on equity stays above 30% for at least three of the next four quarters, confirming the quality profile is durable rather than cyclically inflated. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow running at 80% of net income carries a cautionary note—there is a gap between reported earnings and cash generation that warrants monitoring, and a return on equity above 30% elevated by buybacks may overstate true compounding power relative to return on assets. | ||
At current prices, only 4% of upside remains to analyst consensus target, and the reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.3-to-1 at spot reflects a setup where the potential gain does not justify the potential drawdown—the entry point is not attractive even though the business is excellent. Warnings | Analyst consensus targets are revised at least 12% above current price within two quarters following the next earnings catalyst, restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1 and justifying active positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterA business of this quality with a PEG of 1.36 and strong momentum may simply trade at a perpetual premium to analyst targets; waiting for the perfect entry point could mean missing continued appreciation if the business continues to outperform. | ||
Revenue grew 58% year-over-year, placing this in the top tier of growth rates in its peer group, and the PEG of 1.36 suggests the market is not yet pricing the full value of the growth rate into the multiple—making this a growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity on a fundamental basis.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth exceeds 20% year-over-year for at least two of the next four quarters, confirming the trajectory is sustaining at a level that justifies the premium multiple.
CounterA 58% revenue growth figure may embed an unusually favorable prior-year base, and the most recent quarter produced an earnings miss of 24%—the first in at least four quarters—raising the question of whether cost structure is scaling proportionally with the revenue line.
With approximately 65% of revenues from non-U.S. markets and a flagged single-source supplier dependency, the business carries two distinct concentration risks that could disrupt revenue and operations if regional demand softens or supply is interrupted.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-U.S. revenue share declines below 55% of total, or the company publicly diversifies its critical supplier base to at least two qualified sources within 12 months, reducing both concentration exposures.
CounterA global footprint in electronic components is a competitive strength that enables the business to serve multinational customers; geographic diversification across many non-U.S. markets may offset the headline concentration number if no single region dominates the international mix.
A return on equity of 37%, operating margins of 17%, strong free cash flow conversion at 80% of net income, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 mark this as a high-quality business that consistently generates returns well above typical peers in its sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 15% and return on equity stays above 30% for at least three of the next four quarters, confirming the quality profile is durable rather than cyclically inflated.
CounterFree cash flow running at 80% of net income carries a cautionary note—there is a gap between reported earnings and cash generation that warrants monitoring, and a return on equity above 30% elevated by buybacks may overstate true compounding power relative to return on assets.
At current prices, only 4% of upside remains to analyst consensus target, and the reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.3-to-1 at spot reflects a setup where the potential gain does not justify the potential drawdown—the entry point is not attractive even though the business is excellent.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus targets are revised at least 12% above current price within two quarters following the next earnings catalyst, restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1 and justifying active positioning.
CounterA business of this quality with a PEG of 1.36 and strong momentum may simply trade at a perpetual premium to analyst targets; waiting for the perfect entry point could mean missing continued appreciation if the business continues to outperform.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
APH is a high-quality franchise with a 37% return on equity, 17% operating margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and 58% year-over-year revenue growth—among the best combinations of quality and growth in the peer group—but the stock has closed most of the gap to analyst consensus target with only 4% headroom remaining and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.3-to-1 at spot, while geographic exposure to non-U.S. markets at 65% and single-source supplier concentration add risks that cap near-term conviction despite the excellent underlying business.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 58% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $18,709,066 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $95
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 61.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.41, quality 7.7/10, growth 8.4/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.38
Upside
+4.2%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.7) with weak momentum (2.5)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.7 and growth 8.4 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.38 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Sentiment at 8.0, and Quality at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Value at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.38 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise Fundamentals
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 14% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the quality profile is deteriorating.
- P2Exceptional Revenue Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful deceleration from the current trajectory.
- P3Thin Upside Asymmetry Not Cleared
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $178.00, restoring upside greater than 12% from current price of $158.59.
- P4Geographic And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifNon-U.S. revenue share falls below 55% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating geographic diversification is progressing.