Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.80
APH · Why this verdict
Why Amphenol (APH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amphenol is a high-quality electronic components maker (ROE 40%, 18% margins) with 65% YoY growth and 20.6% upside to the analyst target, though free cash flow conversion is only 72%, insiders are selling and supply and geographic concentrations are high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue and earnings are growing 65% YoY, scoring 10/10, while the PEG stays at 0.80. Growth breakdown | Growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of 65% is hard to sustain on a larger base, and a forward P/E of 22.1x leaves the stock exposed if growth normalizes. | ||
Amphenol earns a 40% return on equity with 18% margins and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, but free cash flow is only 72% of net income. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and free cash flow to net income rises toward 90%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 72% cash conversion is flagged as an earnings quality warning and may mean reported profits are not fully backed by cash. | ||
Concentration risks include 65% of exposure in non-U.S. markets and dependence on a single source of supply, with 2 high-severity items. Bear case | No supply interruption and no adverse trade or currency shock over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single-source supply disruption or tariff change in foreign markets could hit output and margins quickly. | ||
The $95.61 analyst target is 20.6% above the $79.30 price against 9.9% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 2.08. Targets | Price moves toward $95.61 while holding above the $70.48 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTechnology is a risk-off penalized sector, with a sector modifier of -0.8, so multiple compression could offset earnings growth. | ||
Insiders sold about $69.4M over 90 days with no purchases, while the stock is in an uptrend pullback (RSI 37) above its 200-day average. Insider | The price holds above the 200-day average and insider selling slows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFive insider sales worth $69.4M signal caution, and a pullback with RSI 37 can extend if sentiment weakens. | ||
Revenue and earnings are growing 65% YoY, scoring 10/10, while the PEG stays at 0.80.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 4 quarters.
CounterGrowth of 65% is hard to sustain on a larger base, and a forward P/E of 22.1x leaves the stock exposed if growth normalizes.
Amphenol earns a 40% return on equity with 18% margins and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, but free cash flow is only 72% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and free cash flow to net income rises toward 90%.
CounterThe 72% cash conversion is flagged as an earnings quality warning and may mean reported profits are not fully backed by cash.
Concentration risks include 65% of exposure in non-U.S. markets and dependence on a single source of supply, with 2 high-severity items.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply interruption and no adverse trade or currency shock over the next 12 months.
CounterA single-source supply disruption or tariff change in foreign markets could hit output and margins quickly.
The $95.61 analyst target is 20.6% above the $79.30 price against 9.9% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 2.08.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $95.61 while holding above the $70.48 stop.
CounterTechnology is a risk-off penalized sector, with a sector modifier of -0.8, so multiple compression could offset earnings growth.
Insiders sold about $69.4M over 90 days with no purchases, while the stock is in an uptrend pullback (RSI 37) above its 200-day average.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average and insider selling slows.
CounterFive insider sales worth $69.4M signal caution, and a pullback with RSI 37 can extend if sentiment weakens.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 40%
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 72% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 65% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $65,945,990 (0.034% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.54
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.80, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.83
Upside
+34.4%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.9) with weak momentum (3.1)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.9 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.83 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.2, and Sentiment at 8.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Insider at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.83 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Growth Reasonable Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Returns And Margins
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 60%.
- P3Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $70.48 stop level.
- P4Supplier And Geographic Concentration
Trip ifAny single-source supply disruption lasting more than 1 quarter reduces revenue by more than 5%.
- P5Insider Selling Uptrend Pullback
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $150M over a 90-day period.