Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.61
- ▸Attractively valued
APC · Why this verdict
Why ARKO Petroleum (APC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ARKO Petroleum is a small-cap fuel retailer growing revenue 27% at an attractive valuation with 23.1% upside to the analyst target, but its quality score of 2.6 is below the 4.0 floor, momentum is negative and insiders are selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 27% YoY, scoring 9.3/10 on revenue growth, though earnings growth is weaker at 2.7/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFuel retail revenue tracks commodity prices and acquisitions, so top-line growth may not turn into earnings, as the 2.7 earnings growth score suggests. | ||
The stock at $15.02 trades at a forward P/E of 17.1x and a PEG of 0.61, with the $18.49 analyst target 23.1% above the price. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the $18.49 target while holding above the $14.33 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and low-quality, thin-margin businesses often trade cheaply for good reason. | ||
Business quality is weak, scoring 2.6 against a 4.0 floor, with operating margin scored 0.5, net margin scored 0.3 and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins improve over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFuel-marketing margins are structurally thin and exposed to price swings, so the low-quality score may be permanent. | ||
The company beat EPS in 2 of the last 3 quarters but missed by 26.3% in August 2026, with an average surprise of 6.8%. Earnings | EPS beats at the report due 2026-11-04. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA large August miss and earnings in 3 days make this a binary event for a stock in a negative trend. | ||
Momentum scores 2.6 with distribution volume, and insiders sold $2.05M (0.287% of market cap), a moderate level. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and insider selling slows. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume together with insider selling suggests informed holders are reducing exposure. | ||
Revenue is growing 27% YoY, scoring 9.3/10 on revenue growth, though earnings growth is weaker at 2.7/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 4 quarters.
CounterFuel retail revenue tracks commodity prices and acquisitions, so top-line growth may not turn into earnings, as the 2.7 earnings growth score suggests.
The stock at $15.02 trades at a forward P/E of 17.1x and a PEG of 0.61, with the $18.49 analyst target 23.1% above the price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $18.49 target while holding above the $14.33 stop.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and low-quality, thin-margin businesses often trade cheaply for good reason.
Business quality is weak, scoring 2.6 against a 4.0 floor, with operating margin scored 0.5, net margin scored 0.3 and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins improve over 12 months.
CounterFuel-marketing margins are structurally thin and exposed to price swings, so the low-quality score may be permanent.
The company beat EPS in 2 of the last 3 quarters but missed by 26.3% in August 2026, with an average surprise of 6.8%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats at the report due 2026-11-04.
CounterA large August miss and earnings in 3 days make this a binary event for a stock in a negative trend.
Momentum scores 2.6 with distribution volume, and insiders sold $2.05M (0.287% of market cap), a moderate level.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and insider selling slows.
CounterFalling on-balance volume together with insider selling suggests informed holders are reducing exposure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.3 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 6.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,050,248 (0.287% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
- ▸Dividend: 3.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.29%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
3.45
Upside
+25.0%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 3.45.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Technical at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Quality at 2.6, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $14.33 stop-loss level.
- P3Thin Margins Low Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Negative Momentum Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over a 90-day period.