Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 2.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 5.88
APAM · Why this verdict
Why Artisan Partners Asset Manageme (APAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Artisan Partners is a high-quality asset manager (ROE 58%, 25% margins, 9/9 Piotroski) with a 9.5% dividend and a 10.3x forward P/E, but weak growth and a price of $36.58 that already exceeds the $29.32 analyst target limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Artisan earns a 58% return on equity with 25% margins and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 45% and margins stay near 25% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAsset managers' earnings depend on market levels and fund flows, so margins can compress quickly in a downturn. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x and a PEG of 0.87, with a 9.5% dividend yield. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x and the dividend is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterA 9.5% yield with dividend safety scored only 5.5 may be partly variable and could be cut if fee revenue falls. | ||
The price of $36.58 is 19.8% above the $29.32 analyst target, leaving negative upside against 15% downside. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $37 or the price pulls back toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may be slow to update, but a reward-to-risk of -1.32 leaves no margin for error. | ||
Growth is weak, scoring 3.9/10 on revenue and earnings growth, with revenue growth scored 3.4. Bear case | Revenue and earnings growth improve above 5% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterWith growth stalled, any earnings gains depend on market appreciation rather than new client assets. | ||
The company beat EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $1.03 versus $0.96 on 2026-10-27, with an average surprise of 5.1%. Earnings | EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2027-02-02. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOne quarter was a 6.2% miss, so a single weak market quarter could break the pattern. | ||
Artisan earns a 58% return on equity with 25% margins and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 45% and margins stay near 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterAsset managers' earnings depend on market levels and fund flows, so margins can compress quickly in a downturn.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x and a PEG of 0.87, with a 9.5% dividend yield.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x and the dividend is maintained.
CounterA 9.5% yield with dividend safety scored only 5.5 may be partly variable and could be cut if fee revenue falls.
The price of $36.58 is 19.8% above the $29.32 analyst target, leaving negative upside against 15% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $37 or the price pulls back toward the target.
CounterAnalysts may be slow to update, but a reward-to-risk of -1.32 leaves no margin for error.
Growth is weak, scoring 3.9/10 on revenue and earnings growth, with revenue growth scored 3.4.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth improve above 5% YoY.
CounterWith growth stalled, any earnings gains depend on market appreciation rather than new client assets.
The company beat EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $1.03 versus $0.96 on 2026-10-27, with an average surprise of 5.1%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2027-02-02.
CounterOne quarter was a 6.2% miss, so a single weak market quarter could break the pattern.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 58%
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 82 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.4 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $298,143 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.4>=7.5+momentum=7.0>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-1.61
Upside
-24.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.72>1.3, MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.4; weakest: Technical at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Momentum at 7.0, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Growth at 3.9, and Sentiment at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Returns And Margins
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 35% from current 58%.
- P2Cheap Valuation High Dividend
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 6% through a dividend cut.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $34.24 stop level.
- P4Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Mostly Positive Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.