Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
AORT · Why this verdict
Why Artivion (AORT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Artivion is a speculative medical-device recovery story trading 53% off its 52-week high with 57.6% upside to the analyst target, but it is GAAP-unprofitable, depends on sole-source suppliers and sits in a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Artivion is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 3% FCF margin and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | FCF margin stays above 3% and GAAP results move toward break-even over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1.2% FCF yield is thin, and a GAAP loss with zero ROE shows the business is not yet earning its cost of capital. | ||
The stock at $22.58 sits 57.6% below the $35.59 analyst target after a 53% drawdown from its 52-week high, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.49. Targets | Price recovers toward the $35.59 target while holding above the $21.00 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and a stock in a confirmed downtrend can keep falling regardless of targets. | ||
Supply concentration is high: Endospan supplies the NEXUS family and a sole manufacturer produces AMDS, with 4 high-severity concentrations in total. Bear case | No supply interruption on NEXUS or AMDS over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA sole-source manufacturer failure or contract dispute could halt sales of a key product line with no alternative. | ||
Earnings are mixed, with 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result in the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of only 0.3%. Earnings | EPS beats resume at the report due 2026-11-05 and stay positive in following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSurprises swing between +34% and -35%, so earnings are hard to forecast and a miss could extend the drawdown. | ||
The price is below a 200-day average falling 10.4% per 30 days, on falling on-balance volume, with insider selling of $2.6M (0.236% of market cap). Momentum breakdown | The price stabilizes above the $21.00 stop and the 200-day average slope flattens. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA steep downtrend with distribution volume and insider selling suggests informed holders are reducing exposure. | ||
Artivion is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 3% FCF margin and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin stays above 3% and GAAP results move toward break-even over 12 months.
CounterA 1.2% FCF yield is thin, and a GAAP loss with zero ROE shows the business is not yet earning its cost of capital.
The stock at $22.58 sits 57.6% below the $35.59 analyst target after a 53% drawdown from its 52-week high, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.49.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price recovers toward the $35.59 target while holding above the $21.00 stop.
CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and a stock in a confirmed downtrend can keep falling regardless of targets.
Supply concentration is high: Endospan supplies the NEXUS family and a sole manufacturer produces AMDS, with 4 high-severity concentrations in total.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No supply interruption on NEXUS or AMDS over the next 12 months.
CounterA sole-source manufacturer failure or contract dispute could halt sales of a key product line with no alternative.
Earnings are mixed, with 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result in the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of only 0.3%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume at the report due 2026-11-05 and stay positive in following quarters.
CounterSurprises swing between +34% and -35%, so earnings are hard to forecast and a miss could extend the drawdown.
The price is below a 200-day average falling 10.4% per 30 days, on falling on-balance volume, with insider selling of $2.6M (0.236% of market cap).
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price stabilizes above the $21.00 stop and the 200-day average slope flattens.
CounterA steep downtrend with distribution volume and insider selling suggests informed holders are reducing exposure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 3.6 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 3%, FCF yield 1.1%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,595,676 (0.226% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
Technical
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH, 4 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.23%=MODERATE
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.40
Upside
+50.1%
Downside
14.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.40 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Momentum at 6.5, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Upside From Drawdown
Trip ifPrice falls below the $21.00 stop-loss level.
- P2Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Sole Source Supplier Concentration
Trip ifAny supply disruption of NEXUS or AMDS lasting more than 1 quarter.
- P4Inconsistent Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over a 90-day period.