Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.2 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
AORT · Why this verdict
Why Artivion (AORT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analyst consensus targets imply more than 73% upside from current prices, producing a risk/reward ratio approaching 10-to-1 in favor of the bull case — suggesting the market has priced in risks well beyond what the median analyst believes are structurally warranted for this medical device franchise. Bull case | Price closes above $30 (roughly 40% above current levels) within 12 months as the valuation gap begins to close. | →Stable |
| CounterA most-recent quarterly earnings miss of 35% and free cash flow that is negative relative to reported net income give bears legitimate grounds to question whether analyst targets rest on achievable financials rather than aspirational growth scenarios. | ||
The company's earnings growth dimensions rank near the top of its medical device peer group, reflecting a business in an expansionary phase where volume and product-mix trends support above-average sector multiples if the trajectory is sustained. Growth | Revenue grows at double-digit rates for at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quarterly earnings record shows a deteriorating pattern reading from oldest to most recent: a 92% beat, then a 5% beat, then an in-line print, then a 35% miss — raising doubt about whether the initial growth phase has run its course. | ||
Free cash flow is currently negative relative to reported net income, meaning the business is not converting accounting earnings into cash — a concern for a small-cap device company that relies on capital markets for funding during an investment phase. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that earnings are beginning to translate into real cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — indicates near-perfect balance-sheet integrity across multiple dimensions, suggesting the negative cash conversion may reflect deliberate investment for future growth rather than structural operating deterioration. | ||
The company discloses four high-severity and four medium-severity supplier concentration risks, including sole manufacturers for its NEXUS and AMDS product families — a structural vulnerability where a single relationship failure could materially disrupt revenue from key product lines. Risk breakdown | The count of high-severity sole-source supplier dependencies in the next annual filing falls below 2, indicating meaningful supply-chain diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterSole-source relationships are common in niche cardiac and vascular device manufacturing and may reflect deliberate intellectual property protection; a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 suggests financial strength sufficient to manage near-term supply disruptions. | ||
Analyst consensus targets imply more than 73% upside from current prices, producing a risk/reward ratio approaching 10-to-1 in favor of the bull case — suggesting the market has priced in risks well beyond what the median analyst believes are structurally warranted for this medical device franchise.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Price closes above $30 (roughly 40% above current levels) within 12 months as the valuation gap begins to close.
CounterA most-recent quarterly earnings miss of 35% and free cash flow that is negative relative to reported net income give bears legitimate grounds to question whether analyst targets rest on achievable financials rather than aspirational growth scenarios.
The company's earnings growth dimensions rank near the top of its medical device peer group, reflecting a business in an expansionary phase where volume and product-mix trends support above-average sector multiples if the trajectory is sustained.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue grows at double-digit rates for at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe quarterly earnings record shows a deteriorating pattern reading from oldest to most recent: a 92% beat, then a 5% beat, then an in-line print, then a 35% miss — raising doubt about whether the initial growth phase has run its course.
Free cash flow is currently negative relative to reported net income, meaning the business is not converting accounting earnings into cash — a concern for a small-cap device company that relies on capital markets for funding during an investment phase.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that earnings are beginning to translate into real cash generation.
CounterA Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — indicates near-perfect balance-sheet integrity across multiple dimensions, suggesting the negative cash conversion may reflect deliberate investment for future growth rather than structural operating deterioration.
The company discloses four high-severity and four medium-severity supplier concentration risks, including sole manufacturers for its NEXUS and AMDS product families — a structural vulnerability where a single relationship failure could materially disrupt revenue from key product lines.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The count of high-severity sole-source supplier dependencies in the next annual filing falls below 2, indicating meaningful supply-chain diversification.
CounterSole-source relationships are common in niche cardiac and vascular device manufacturing and may reflect deliberate intellectual property protection; a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 suggests financial strength sufficient to manage near-term supply disruptions.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Artivion's medical device franchise carries analyst consensus targets implying more than 73% upside from current levels and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 10-to-1 in favor of the bull case, but the near-term picture is complicated by a recent 35% earnings miss, free cash flow that is negative relative to net income, a confirmed price downtrend, and eight disclosed supplier concentration vulnerabilities including sole manufacturers for key product families.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -62% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 75%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $910,739 (0.078% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH, 4 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.50
Upside
+52.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 8.7; weakest: Technical at 1.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.7, Growth at 8.4, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.4, Peer rank at 3.7, and Insider at 3.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Consensus Implied Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $29 (a cut of more than 20% from the current $36.54 target).
- P2Above Peer Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Negative Free Cash Flow Risk
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Sole Source Supplier Concentration
Trip ifHigh-severity sole-source supplier dependency count falls below 2 per the next annual 10-K filing.