Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.6 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.21
ANET · Why this verdict
Why Arista Networks (ANET) is rated BUY NOW
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY NOW
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arista Networks is a high-quality compounder with 38% revenue growth, 38% margins and a wide moat, trading oversold with 29.8% upside to the analyst target, though heavy insider selling and weak momentum temper near-term conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 38% YoY, earning a growth score of 9.6/10, with a PEG of 1.25 that makes the growth reasonably priced. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of 38% is hard to sustain on a larger base, and a slowdown would hit a stock with a forward P/E of 32.3x. | ||
Arista combines 31% ROE, 38% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/10 Piotroski F-Score, marking it as a high-quality business. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 38% and ROE stays above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHardware networking margins can compress when hyperscaler customers push on pricing or competitors respond. | ||
The stock at $168.86 is oversold (RSI 27) and 29.8% below the $219.23 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of 2.47. Targets | Price recovers toward the $219.23 target while holding above the $152.31 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume distribution with falling OBV and a 5.8% gap down suggest selling pressure may continue before any bounce. | ||
Insiders sold about $799M of stock over 90 days across 254 sales with no purchases, a bearish signal at 0.375% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling slows and net sales fall below $400M per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge, routine, pre-planned sales by executives are common for richly compensated tech firms and may not signal fundamental concern. | ||
Momentum score is 3.8 with falling on-balance volume, and implied volatility of 97% reflects high short-term uncertainty. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 as the price stabilizes above the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA negative technical setup with a sector modifier of -0.8 can persist for months, and a break below the 200-day average would confirm weakness. | ||
Revenue is growing 38% YoY, earning a growth score of 9.6/10, with a PEG of 1.25 that makes the growth reasonably priced.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next 4 quarters.
CounterGrowth of 38% is hard to sustain on a larger base, and a slowdown would hit a stock with a forward P/E of 32.3x.
Arista combines 31% ROE, 38% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/10 Piotroski F-Score, marking it as a high-quality business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 38% and ROE stays above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterHardware networking margins can compress when hyperscaler customers push on pricing or competitors respond.
The stock at $168.86 is oversold (RSI 27) and 29.8% below the $219.23 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of 2.47.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price recovers toward the $219.23 target while holding above the $152.31 stop.
CounterVolume distribution with falling OBV and a 5.8% gap down suggest selling pressure may continue before any bounce.
Insiders sold about $799M of stock over 90 days across 254 sales with no purchases, a bearish signal at 0.375% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows and net sales fall below $400M per quarter.
CounterLarge, routine, pre-planned sales by executives are common for richly compensated tech firms and may not signal fundamental concern.
Momentum score is 3.8 with falling on-balance volume, and implied volatility of 97% reflects high short-term uncertainty.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 as the price stabilizes above the 200-day average.
CounterA negative technical setup with a sector modifier of -0.8 can persist for months, and a break below the 200-day average would confirm weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.4 |
| Gross margin | 8.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
3.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $515,383,503 (0.241% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.3%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.6 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $105
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.21, quality 9.2/10, growth 9.6/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARPPassed (9)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Technology:7/10:self_excluded
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.21
Upside
+24.0%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
HALF
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.64>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_NOW verdict: quality 9.2 and growth 9.6 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.21 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Quality at 9.2, and Sentiment at 7.9; the weakest are Insider at 3.2, Value at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.21 and an engine sizing output of HALF.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30% from current levels above 38%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Oversold Bounce Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $152.31 stop level.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $1.5B over a 90-day period.
- P5Weak Momentum High Volatility
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive months.