Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
ANAB · Why this verdict
Why AnaptysBio (ANAB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AnaptysBio is a speculative biotech with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, strong peer-best margins and 57.2% upside to the analyst target, but it is heavily dependent on GSK and one pipeline asset and carries 40% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business depends on one counterparty (GSK) and one pipeline asset (rosnilimab), so a single clinical or partner setback could impair the thesis. Bear case | Pipeline progress on rosnilimab and sustained GSK payments over 12 months with no adverse trial news. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration in a single asset and partner means a trial failure or partner decision would hit value far more than diversified peers would suffer. | ||
AnaptysBio has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, showing results are repeatedly coming in ahead of expectations. Earnings | Continued EPS beats over the next 4 quarters, including the report due 2026-11-03. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats were driven by lumpy collaboration revenue against very low estimates, so the 3384% surprise is not a repeatable earnings run-rate. | ||
Revenue growth of 24% YoY is described as strong, but quarterly revenue swung from $108.2M to $25.6M, showing milestone-driven rather than steady sales. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above the $25M level and approach the $33.5M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterCollaboration and royalty revenue is non-recurring in nature, so the growth rate could reverse sharply when milestone payments stop. | ||
The analyst target of $75.91 sits 57.2% above the $48.28 price, with downside to the stop at about 10%, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.72. Targets | Price moves toward the $75.91 target while holding above the $42.70 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and the stock sits below its 200-day average with 370% implied volatility, so targets may not be reached. | ||
Short interest of 40% and implied volatility of 370% make the stock highly volatile around the binary earnings event in 2 days. Risk breakdown | Short interest should ease and volatility fall after earnings if the thesis holds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy short positioning signals informed skeptics, and a miss or pipeline disappointment could trigger a sharp drawdown. | ||
The business depends on one counterparty (GSK) and one pipeline asset (rosnilimab), so a single clinical or partner setback could impair the thesis.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Pipeline progress on rosnilimab and sustained GSK payments over 12 months with no adverse trial news.
CounterConcentration in a single asset and partner means a trial failure or partner decision would hit value far more than diversified peers would suffer.
AnaptysBio has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, showing results are repeatedly coming in ahead of expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats over the next 4 quarters, including the report due 2026-11-03.
CounterBeats were driven by lumpy collaboration revenue against very low estimates, so the 3384% surprise is not a repeatable earnings run-rate.
Revenue growth of 24% YoY is described as strong, but quarterly revenue swung from $108.2M to $25.6M, showing milestone-driven rather than steady sales.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above the $25M level and approach the $33.5M next-quarter estimate.
CounterCollaboration and royalty revenue is non-recurring in nature, so the growth rate could reverse sharply when milestone payments stop.
The analyst target of $75.91 sits 57.2% above the $48.28 price, with downside to the stop at about 10%, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.72.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $75.91 target while holding above the $42.70 stop.
CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and the stock sits below its 200-day average with 370% implied volatility, so targets may not be reached.
Short interest of 40% and implied volatility of 370% make the stock highly volatile around the binary earnings event in 2 days.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should ease and volatility fall after earnings if the thesis holds.
CounterHeavy short positioning signals informed skeptics, and a miss or pipeline disappointment could trigger a sharp drawdown.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 57%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 84%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $249,372 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 10.0 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 3.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 40%
- ▸High IV: 303%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.76
Upside
+59.8%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.4; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Sentiment at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Momentum at 4.4, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue Growth Lumpy Milestones
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $20M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Gsk Pipeline Concentration Risk
Trip ifGSK-related revenue falls below 30% of the revenue base or a rosnilimab trial misses, with the stock dropping more than 30%.
- P4Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $42.70 stop-loss level, cutting upside to the target to less than 25%.
- P5High Short Interest Volatility
Trip ifShort interest rises above 50% of float.