Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AMTM · Why this verdict
Why Amentum Holdings (AMTM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amentum trades at a cheap 8.3x forward P/E with 237% cash conversion and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but 81% of revenue comes from the U.S. federal government, revenue is declining about 2%, quality is below the floor and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The U.S. federal government accounts for 81.0% of revenue, so budget, contract or procurement changes would hit results disproportionately. Bear case | Federal contract awards and backlog should stay stable without major recompete losses. | →Stable |
| CounterFederal contracts for government services tend to be sticky and multi-year, so concentration may be less volatile than it looks. | ||
Free cash flow is an excellent 237% of net income with a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, but the company has no competitive moat and quality still scores only 3.7/10. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should stay above net income to support deleveraging and valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion that high may reflect one-off working-capital release or low reported earnings and may not recur. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.3x with a PEG of 0.01, an attractively valued multiple with 16.4% upside to the $25.45 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Earnings should hold so the forward multiple stays below 10x or re-rates higher. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining about 2% and growth confidence is only 0.33, so the cheap multiple may reflect real earnings risk. | ||
Amentum has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters by an average of 6.8%, with the next report due November 23. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend at the November 23 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterModest beats on a business with declining revenue may reflect cost cuts rather than demand strength. | ||
The price is in a confirmed downtrend, below a 200-day average falling 6.1% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and a bear-rally RSI of 76. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day slope should flatten before the price can be considered recovering. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross that is recovering and an improving MACD suggest the downtrend may be near its end after a 43% drawdown. | ||
The U.S. federal government accounts for 81.0% of revenue, so budget, contract or procurement changes would hit results disproportionately.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Federal contract awards and backlog should stay stable without major recompete losses.
CounterFederal contracts for government services tend to be sticky and multi-year, so concentration may be less volatile than it looks.
Free cash flow is an excellent 237% of net income with a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, but the company has no competitive moat and quality still scores only 3.7/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should stay above net income to support deleveraging and valuation.
CounterCash conversion that high may reflect one-off working-capital release or low reported earnings and may not recur.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.3x with a PEG of 0.01, an attractively valued multiple with 16.4% upside to the $25.45 analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should hold so the forward multiple stays below 10x or re-rates higher.
CounterRevenue is declining about 2% and growth confidence is only 0.33, so the cheap multiple may reflect real earnings risk.
Amentum has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters by an average of 6.8%, with the next report due November 23.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend at the November 23 report.
CounterModest beats on a business with declining revenue may reflect cost cuts rather than demand strength.
The price is in a confirmed downtrend, below a 200-day average falling 6.1% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and a bear-rally RSI of 76.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day slope should flatten before the price can be considered recovering.
CounterA death cross that is recovering and an improving MACD suggest the downtrend may be near its end after a 43% drawdown.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.4 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 237% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 1.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.26
Upside
+18.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 18d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.26.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Technical at 2.6, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Federal Customer Concentration
Trip ifFederal government share of revenue exceeds 90% from the current 81%.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 100% from the current 237%.
- P3Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from the current 8.3x.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% on the November 23 report.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day slope rises above 0% from the current -6.1%.