Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.34
AMRZ · Why this verdict
Why Amrize (AMRZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Despite a technically constructive breakout pattern, three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including an average negative surprise of roughly 21% — and an options market skewed heavily toward downside protection make this a low-conviction setup that favors the sidelines until execution improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 6.82 — far above any level consistent with neutral or bullish positioning — indicating institutional demand for downside protection that the stock price alone does not yet reflect. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for at least 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a shift toward neutral positioning. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn extreme put/call reading can function as a contrary indicator; when bearish positioning is this crowded, a positive earnings catalyst can trigger a sharp reversal that punishes the put holders and drives a rapid re-rating. | ||
A golden cross has formed and the stock trades above all major moving averages with a constructive RSI reading near 58, constituting a technically defined breakout that can support price appreciation if the fundamental picture stabilizes. Engine gate (passed) | Price advances more than 10% above the breakout level and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 8 consecutive weeks. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterWithout earnings credibility, a technically defined breakout is prone to failure; the sharply contradictory options market signal suggests institutional participants are not yet convinced the chart pattern will follow through. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters ended below consensus estimates, including both most recent quarters, with the latest missing by approximately 48%; the average quarterly earnings surprise across the trailing year is roughly negative 21%. Earnings | Earnings beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 5%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one beat in the trailing four quarters came at the oldest reported period; combined with a dividend yield of 22%, the results may reflect a management team stabilizing the business ahead of a reset, and subsequent quarters could show a turn. | ||
Available upside of 8.1% against potential downside of 11.5% produces a risk/reward ratio of 0.71 — below the 1.5-to-1 minimum required for a conviction entry — meaning the position geometry does not compensate for the risks present. Engine gate (failed) | Upside to the price target expands above 15% while downside remains below 12%, bringing the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.25 and closer to a conviction-level setup. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst consensus implies 20% upside to a fuller price target; if earnings execution improves and the target is revised upward, the asymmetry could reach the required bar without requiring a price pullback. | ||
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 6.82 — far above any level consistent with neutral or bullish positioning — indicating institutional demand for downside protection that the stock price alone does not yet reflect.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for at least 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a shift toward neutral positioning.
CounterAn extreme put/call reading can function as a contrary indicator; when bearish positioning is this crowded, a positive earnings catalyst can trigger a sharp reversal that punishes the put holders and drives a rapid re-rating.
A golden cross has formed and the stock trades above all major moving averages with a constructive RSI reading near 58, constituting a technically defined breakout that can support price appreciation if the fundamental picture stabilizes.
Tripped→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Price advances more than 10% above the breakout level and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 8 consecutive weeks.
CounterWithout earnings credibility, a technically defined breakout is prone to failure; the sharply contradictory options market signal suggests institutional participants are not yet convinced the chart pattern will follow through.
Three of the last four reported quarters ended below consensus estimates, including both most recent quarters, with the latest missing by approximately 48%; the average quarterly earnings surprise across the trailing year is roughly negative 21%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterThe one beat in the trailing four quarters came at the oldest reported period; combined with a dividend yield of 22%, the results may reflect a management team stabilizing the business ahead of a reset, and subsequent quarters could show a turn.
Available upside of 8.1% against potential downside of 11.5% produces a risk/reward ratio of 0.71 — below the 1.5-to-1 minimum required for a conviction entry — meaning the position geometry does not compensate for the risks present.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Upside to the price target expands above 15% while downside remains below 12%, bringing the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.25 and closer to a conviction-level setup.
CounterAnalyst consensus implies 20% upside to a fuller price target; if earnings execution improves and the target is revised upward, the asymmetry could reach the required bar without requiring a price pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $1,778,968 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.7 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.04
Upside
+14.3%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Technical at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Catalyst at 3.5, and Growth at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the miss pattern.
- P2Extreme Put Call Options Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 and remains there for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P3Breakout Technical SetupTripped
Trip ifPrice falls more than 8% below the 200-day moving average and holds there for more than 3 weeks.
- P4Thin Asymmetry Below Conviction Bar
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 with upside to take-profit exceeding 12%.