Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.09
AMRZ · Why this verdict
Why Amrize (AMRZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amrize is a building-materials company with insider buying and a 15.4x forward P/E, but it has missed EPS in 3 of 4 quarters, trades in a confirmed downtrend and sits 1.1% above the analyst target, so the case for adding is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price is in a confirmed downtrend, below a 200-day average that is falling 4.6% per 30 days, and the recent bounce is an overbought bear rally with RSI at 89. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day slope should flatten and the price should hold above it before momentum can be called a recovery. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a recovering momentum score of 6.4/10 suggest the trend may already be turning. | ||
The price of $41.38 is 1.1% above the $40.92 analyst target, with 13.5% downside and a reward-to-risk of -0.08. Upside pct | Analyst targets should rise toward the price, or the price should ease toward the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets are typically stale after a sharp rally, and a revision cycle could lift them quickly. | ||
Amrize has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -15.7%. Avg surprise pct | The next report on February 17, 2027 should show a positive EPS surprise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBuilding materials earnings are seasonal and the company is newly separated, so estimates may be less reliable than the miss rate suggests. | ||
Insiders made 17 purchases worth about $2.64 million over 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal. Net value 90d | Insiders should remain net buyers over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe buying equals just 0.012% of market cap, which is low materiality for a company this large. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 15.4x with a PEG of 1.09, but free cash flow is only 75% of net income and the company has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should improve toward 100% of net income. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows sound underlying financial health, so the cash-conversion shortfall may be temporary. | ||
The price is in a confirmed downtrend, below a 200-day average that is falling 4.6% per 30 days, and the recent bounce is an overbought bear rally with RSI at 89.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day slope should flatten and the price should hold above it before momentum can be called a recovery.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a recovering momentum score of 6.4/10 suggest the trend may already be turning.
The price of $41.38 is 1.1% above the $40.92 analyst target, with 13.5% downside and a reward-to-risk of -0.08.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise toward the price, or the price should ease toward the target.
CounterAnalyst targets are typically stale after a sharp rally, and a revision cycle could lift them quickly.
Amrize has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -15.7%.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The next report on February 17, 2027 should show a positive EPS surprise.
CounterBuilding materials earnings are seasonal and the company is newly separated, so estimates may be less reliable than the miss rate suggests.
Insiders made 17 purchases worth about $2.64 million over 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insiders should remain net buyers over the next 12 months.
CounterThe buying equals just 0.012% of market cap, which is low materiality for a company this large.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 15.4x with a PEG of 1.09, but free cash flow is only 75% of net income and the company has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should improve toward 100% of net income.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows sound underlying financial health, so the cash-conversion shortfall may be temporary.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 1.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 87)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $2,638,385 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.7 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.34
Upside
-5.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, Value at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Growth at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Unreliable Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% on the February 17, 2027 report.
- P2Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $1 million over 90 days.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Bear Rally
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day slope rises above 0% from the current -4.6%.
- P4Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $46, at least 11% above the current $41.38 price.
- P5Moderate Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 60% from the current 75%.