Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
AMRX · Why this verdict
Why Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four wholesale distributors account for 71% of revenue, meaning pricing pressure or the loss of any one of them could cause a disproportionate impact on the top line. Bear case | Annual filings show combined revenue share from the four named distributors declining below 60%, indicating meaningful customer diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterThese distribution channels dominate generic pharmaceutical logistics structurally; the concentration reflects how the market is built rather than a remediable strategic gap, and long-term supply agreements reduce near-term renegotiation risk. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with the most recent delivering a 60% positive surprise, suggesting a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering against a modest analyst-consensus bar. Earnings | Beat rate remains at or above 75% over the next four reported quarters with average positive surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only four analysts covering the name, the consensus benchmark is unreliably thin; beats against a sparse panel are a weaker signal of genuine outperformance than beats against deep, well-informed coverage. | ||
With an RSI of 85 and price sitting within 0.2% of the technical resistance ceiling, the stock is deeply overbought and has virtually no room for additional near-term gains without a meaningful pullback first. Momentum breakdown | RSI normalizes below 70 and price establishes a sustainable support base, creating a fresh entry window below resistance. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the price advance signals genuine buyer conviction rather than speculative exhaustion; momentum can sustain elevated RSI readings longer than expected when accumulation is broad-based. | ||
Available upside to the price target is just 0.2% while downside is 6.8%, producing a risk/reward ratio of 0.03 — potential loss is roughly 34 times potential gain — a geometry that makes new exposure imprudent at current levels. Price targets | Setup becomes actionable only if the stock resets to a level where upside to the target exceeds downside by at least 1.5 times. | →Stable |
| CounterThe compressed price-to-earnings growth ratio and consistent earnings outperformance could attract an analyst target price upgrade, expanding available upside and improving the geometry without requiring a price pullback. | ||
Four wholesale distributors account for 71% of revenue, meaning pricing pressure or the loss of any one of them could cause a disproportionate impact on the top line.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Annual filings show combined revenue share from the four named distributors declining below 60%, indicating meaningful customer diversification.
CounterThese distribution channels dominate generic pharmaceutical logistics structurally; the concentration reflects how the market is built rather than a remediable strategic gap, and long-term supply agreements reduce near-term renegotiation risk.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with the most recent delivering a 60% positive surprise, suggesting a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering against a modest analyst-consensus bar.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate remains at or above 75% over the next four reported quarters with average positive surprise above 10%.
CounterWith only four analysts covering the name, the consensus benchmark is unreliably thin; beats against a sparse panel are a weaker signal of genuine outperformance than beats against deep, well-informed coverage.
With an RSI of 85 and price sitting within 0.2% of the technical resistance ceiling, the stock is deeply overbought and has virtually no room for additional near-term gains without a meaningful pullback first.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI normalizes below 70 and price establishes a sustainable support base, creating a fresh entry window below resistance.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the price advance signals genuine buyer conviction rather than speculative exhaustion; momentum can sustain elevated RSI readings longer than expected when accumulation is broad-based.
Available upside to the price target is just 0.2% while downside is 6.8%, producing a risk/reward ratio of 0.03 — potential loss is roughly 34 times potential gain — a geometry that makes new exposure imprudent at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Setup becomes actionable only if the stock resets to a level where upside to the target exceeds downside by at least 1.5 times.
CounterThe compressed price-to-earnings growth ratio and consistent earnings outperformance could attract an analyst target price upgrade, expanding available upside and improving the geometry without requiring a price pullback.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amneal has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise above 30%, but the stock sits within 0.2% of its resistance target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.03 — potential loss is roughly 34 times potential gain — making the setup a clear hold-only rather than an entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=4)
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $450,558 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 109%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.97
Upside
-14.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.97 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.6, Value at 6.4, and Momentum at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.5, Growth at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Discipline
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Overbought At Resistance
Trip ifPrice closes more than 5% above the $16.28 resistance level and holds there for 3 consecutive sessions, invalidating the overbought-at-ceiling reading.
- P3Distributor Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue share from the four major distributors falls below 55% in a subsequent annual filing.
- P4Unfavorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target expands above 10% while downside remains below 8%, bringing the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.25.