Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AMR · Why this verdict
Why Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alpha Metallurgical is a met-coal producer trading at a 9.0x forward P/E with heavy insider buying and a 3-quarter earnings beat streak, but revenue is down about 10%, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, quality scores only 2.4/10 and the price is 6.0% above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is 96.0% met coal and 73.0% export, so the business is fully exposed to one commodity and to overseas steel demand. Bear case | Met coal pricing and export volumes should stay stable enough to protect margins over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single-commodity pure play is exactly what drives the sector-rotation upside if met coal prices recover, and value scores 7.5/10. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.9/10, with the price below a 200-day average that is falling 2.6% per 30 days and falling on-balance volume, despite an oversold RSI of 26. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average slope should flatten and the price should stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI of 26 signals capitulation, which often precedes a sharp bounce, especially with insiders buying. | ||
The price of $159.19 is 6.0% above the $149.60 analyst target, with 10.9% downside and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.55. Upside pct | Analyst targets should rise as earnings improve, or the price should ease toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterThree straight earnings beats averaging 10.0% suggest estimates and targets may be too low. | ||
Revenue is declining, down about 10% YoY, with the June 2026 quarter at $491.5 million versus $548.7 million a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue should stabilize and recover toward the $562 million next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is low (0.33) and met coal pricing is cyclical, so the decline may reflect the trough rather than a structural trend. | ||
Insiders made 26 purchases worth about $12.6 million over 90 days with no sales, equal to 0.627% of market cap. Net value 90d | Insiders should remain net buyers while the stock trades near current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buying in a downtrend has often arrived early, and the stock still sits in a confirmed downtrend with falling volume accumulation. | ||
Revenue is 96.0% met coal and 73.0% export, so the business is fully exposed to one commodity and to overseas steel demand.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Met coal pricing and export volumes should stay stable enough to protect margins over 12 months.
CounterA single-commodity pure play is exactly what drives the sector-rotation upside if met coal prices recover, and value scores 7.5/10.
Momentum is weak at 2.9/10, with the price below a 200-day average that is falling 2.6% per 30 days and falling on-balance volume, despite an oversold RSI of 26.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average slope should flatten and the price should stabilize.
CounterRSI of 26 signals capitulation, which often precedes a sharp bounce, especially with insiders buying.
The price of $159.19 is 6.0% above the $149.60 analyst target, with 10.9% downside and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.55.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise as earnings improve, or the price should ease toward the target.
CounterThree straight earnings beats averaging 10.0% suggest estimates and targets may be too low.
Revenue is declining, down about 10% YoY, with the June 2026 quarter at $491.5 million versus $548.7 million a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should stabilize and recover toward the $562 million next-quarter estimate.
CounterGrowth confidence is low (0.33) and met coal pricing is cyclical, so the decline may reflect the trough rather than a structural trend.
Insiders made 26 purchases worth about $12.6 million over 90 days with no sales, equal to 0.627% of market cap.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insiders should remain net buyers while the stock trades near current levels.
CounterInsider buying in a downtrend has often arrived early, and the stock still sits in a confirmed downtrend with falling volume accumulation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $12,635,232 (0.647% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.9 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.57
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.6
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of -0.33.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Momentum at 1.1, and Quality at 2.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Met Coal Export Concentration
Trip ifMet coal share of revenue falls below 80% from the current 96%.
- P2Declining Revenue Trend
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Heavy Insider Buying
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $1 million over 90 days.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day slope rises above 0% from the current -2.6%.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $175, at least 10% above the current $159.19 price.