Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 5.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.38
- ▸Attractively valued
AMP · Why this verdict
Why Ameriprise Financial (AMP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ameriprise is a wide-moat financial with a 72% ROE and a cheap 9.5x forward P/E, but the price of $490.83 is already 3.5% above the analyst target and momentum is soft, so the stance is to hold and accumulate only on weakness.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ameriprise has a wide economic moat, a 72% return on equity, 21% margins and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, marking a high-quality franchise. Quality breakdown | Return on equity and margins should hold, keeping the quality score near 7.7/10. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets is weak at 1.5/10 and a high ROE on a leveraged balance sheet can overstate underlying profitability. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x with a PEG of 1.38, an attractive valuation relative to its returns. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should sustain the multiple near 10x or support a modest re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple may reflect market sensitivity of asset-management earnings, and growth scores only 6.2/10. | ||
The price of $490.83 is 3.5% above the $473.54 analyst target, with 5.0% downside and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.70. Upside pct | Analyst targets should rise toward the price or the price should pull back toward the $466.29 entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst rating is only mid-range (5.0/10) and targets typically lag; a modest overshoot is not unusual for a quality compounder. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising (+0.3% over 30 days) while on-balance volume is falling, a pullback in an uptrend with distribution. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and volume accumulation should resume. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling volume-based accumulation with a momentum score of 4.7/10 could mark the start of a trend break. | ||
Earnings quality carries a warning because free cash flow is only 76% of net income, below the level typical of high-quality compounding. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should recover toward 100% of net income. | →Stable |
| CounterFor financial firms, cash flow includes client-related balance-sheet movements, so the ratio may not reflect earnings quality. | ||
Ameriprise has a wide economic moat, a 72% return on equity, 21% margins and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, marking a high-quality franchise.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and margins should hold, keeping the quality score near 7.7/10.
CounterReturn on assets is weak at 1.5/10 and a high ROE on a leveraged balance sheet can overstate underlying profitability.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x with a PEG of 1.38, an attractive valuation relative to its returns.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should sustain the multiple near 10x or support a modest re-rating.
CounterA low multiple may reflect market sensitivity of asset-management earnings, and growth scores only 6.2/10.
The price of $490.83 is 3.5% above the $473.54 analyst target, with 5.0% downside and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.70.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise toward the price or the price should pull back toward the $466.29 entry level.
CounterAnalyst rating is only mid-range (5.0/10) and targets typically lag; a modest overshoot is not unusual for a quality compounder.
The price is below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising (+0.3% over 30 days) while on-balance volume is falling, a pullback in an uptrend with distribution.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and volume accumulation should resume.
CounterFalling volume-based accumulation with a momentum score of 4.7/10 could mark the start of a trend break.
Earnings quality carries a warning because free cash flow is only 76% of net income, below the level typical of high-quality compounding.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should recover toward 100% of net income.
CounterFor financial firms, cash flow includes client-related balance-sheet movements, so the ratio may not reflect earnings quality.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 72%
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.4 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,603,682 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.17
Upside
-6.1%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of -1.17.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Value at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Sentiment at 4.0, and Insider at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.17 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Return Quality
Trip ifMargins fall below 17% from the current 21%.
- P2Low Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 13x from the current 9.5x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $540, at least 10% above the current $490.83 price.
- P4Pullback Below Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day change falls below 0% from the current +0.3%.
- P5Cash Conversion Warning
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 60% from the current 76%.