Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.79
AMP · Why this verdict
Why Ameriprise Financial (AMP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A franchise with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, 67% return on equity, 20% operating margins, a wide economic moat, and four consecutive earnings beats is priced attractively at roughly 9.7 times forward earnings—but the stock sits in a confirmed near-term downtrend with the slope of the 200-day average declining, an elevated put/call ratio, and just 2.3% headroom to the current price target, arguing for patience near the $442 noted entry level rather than adding at today's price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At roughly 9.7 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 1.54, the stock screens attractively valued for a business of this quality—offering potential multiple expansion should the current near-term weakness resolve. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remaining below 12x while earnings growth continues would validate the valuation thesis; P/E multiple expansion above 12x would indicate the discount has been fully absorbed. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG above 1.0 means the multiple is not cheap relative to growth in an absolute sense; if earnings growth decelerates, the forward multiple may not look as compelling, and the confirmed near-term downtrend could deepen before any mean-reversion begins. | ||
Return on equity stands at 67%, operating margins at 20%, and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9—backed by what the quality assessment characterizes as a wide economic moat—indicating a franchise that has compounded returns alongside growth and maintains strong financial health across multiple metrics. Quality breakdown | ROE holding above 50% and operating margins above 18% over the next 4 quarters would sustain the quality thesis and support premium multiple expansion if technical conditions improve. | →Stable |
| CounterA return on equity of 67% may be partially flattered by share repurchases that have reduced the equity base; if buyback activity slows or earnings stall, the headline return metric could compress and the quality characterization may need to be revisited. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters, most recently by a 10% positive surprise—a streak suggesting the business is consistently delivering ahead of what the analyst community models. Earnings | A fifth consecutive beat in the upcoming reporting cycle would further confirm this execution cadence; back-to-back beats above 5% would signal the pattern is durable. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeat streaks narrow as sell-side models recalibrate; if estimates reset meaningfully higher following the strong most-recent quarter, clearing them becomes structurally more difficult and the streak may break without any underlying operational change. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at approximately 1.6% over the past thirty days—a confirmed near-term downtrend that limits the urgency to add at current levels despite the strong underlying fundamental profile. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaiming the 200-day moving average with the slope turning positive would signal the downtrend has reversed and the technical setup has caught up with fundamentals. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is in neutral territory, suggesting the downward momentum may be losing force; high-quality names with strong fundamental underpinnings have historically recovered technical weakness, and the current pullback may be nearing exhaustion. | ||
The put/call ratio of 2.07 is notably elevated, reflecting options market participants positioning for further downside—a meaningful caution signal that coincides with the confirmed technical downtrend and adds weight to the case for patience rather than adding at spot. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio declining below 1.0 as the stock stabilizes would indicate options market sentiment has normalized and near-term hedging demand has abated. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can act as contrarian indicators; high put accumulation sometimes precedes short-covering rallies, particularly in high-quality names where fundamental bears may eventually capitulate if no adverse earnings development materializes. | ||
At roughly 9.7 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 1.54, the stock screens attractively valued for a business of this quality—offering potential multiple expansion should the current near-term weakness resolve.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remaining below 12x while earnings growth continues would validate the valuation thesis; P/E multiple expansion above 12x would indicate the discount has been fully absorbed.
CounterA PEG above 1.0 means the multiple is not cheap relative to growth in an absolute sense; if earnings growth decelerates, the forward multiple may not look as compelling, and the confirmed near-term downtrend could deepen before any mean-reversion begins.
Return on equity stands at 67%, operating margins at 20%, and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9—backed by what the quality assessment characterizes as a wide economic moat—indicating a franchise that has compounded returns alongside growth and maintains strong financial health across multiple metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE holding above 50% and operating margins above 18% over the next 4 quarters would sustain the quality thesis and support premium multiple expansion if technical conditions improve.
CounterA return on equity of 67% may be partially flattered by share repurchases that have reduced the equity base; if buyback activity slows or earnings stall, the headline return metric could compress and the quality characterization may need to be revisited.
The company has beaten consensus earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters, most recently by a 10% positive surprise—a streak suggesting the business is consistently delivering ahead of what the analyst community models.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat in the upcoming reporting cycle would further confirm this execution cadence; back-to-back beats above 5% would signal the pattern is durable.
CounterBeat streaks narrow as sell-side models recalibrate; if estimates reset meaningfully higher following the strong most-recent quarter, clearing them becomes structurally more difficult and the streak may break without any underlying operational change.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at approximately 1.6% over the past thirty days—a confirmed near-term downtrend that limits the urgency to add at current levels despite the strong underlying fundamental profile.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaiming the 200-day moving average with the slope turning positive would signal the downtrend has reversed and the technical setup has caught up with fundamentals.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is in neutral territory, suggesting the downward momentum may be losing force; high-quality names with strong fundamental underpinnings have historically recovered technical weakness, and the current pullback may be nearing exhaustion.
The put/call ratio of 2.07 is notably elevated, reflecting options market participants positioning for further downside—a meaningful caution signal that coincides with the confirmed technical downtrend and adds weight to the case for patience rather than adding at spot.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declining below 1.0 as the stock stabilizes would indicate options market sentiment has normalized and near-term hedging demand has abated.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can act as contrarian indicators; high put accumulation sometimes precedes short-covering rallies, particularly in high-quality names where fundamental bears may eventually capitulate if no adverse earnings development materializes.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 63%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.3 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 9.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.80 (n=4)
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,829,198 (0.038% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 9.1 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.17
Upside
-11.6%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of -1.17.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Growth at 4.8, and Momentum at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.17 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat Franchise
Trip ifReturn on equity compresses below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15x from the current 9.7x.
- P4Confirmed Near Term Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average and the 200-day moving-average slope rises above 0% for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P5Elevated Options Market Skepticism
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 3 consecutive weeks.