Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.88
AMG · Why this verdict
Why Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company ranks among the highest-quality names in its asset management peer group on financial strength and return metrics, with superior return on equity versus peers and a peer quality ranking that places it in the top tier of the competitive set. Peer rank | Peer-relative quality ranking remains in the top quartile over the next four quarters, confirming that the business continues to earn above-peer returns without deterioration in capital efficiency. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management quality rankings are sensitive to AUM levels and market beta; a sustained market drawdown would compress fee revenues and returns simultaneously across the peer group, and a firm heavily weighted toward equities could see its relative quality advantage narrow faster than its absolute metrics decline. | ||
Despite strong stated margins of 36%, free cash flow converts at only 31% of net income — a red flag indicating that a significant portion of reported earnings does not translate to distributable cash, raising questions about the reliability of the earnings base. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% over the next four quarters, demonstrating that the earnings-to-cash conversion gap is structural and closing. | →Stable |
| CounterIn an asset management context, a low FCF-to-net-income ratio can reflect discretionary reinvestment in new affiliate relationships or seed capital deployment; if these outlays are management-controlled and capable of reversal, the conversion gap can close rapidly without requiring a structural fix. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters — delivering $8.23, $9.48, $6.10, and $5.39 against estimates of $8.07, $8.84, $5.88, and $5.29 — a track record of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that supports the current valuation. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in each of the next two quarters with a positive surprise percentage, extending the streak to six consecutive beats. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak averaging roughly 4% can narrow as analysts calibrate to the pattern; any softening in carried interest realizations or AUM contraction from market depreciation could shift a near-beat to an in-line or miss, removing the execution premium embedded in the current price. | ||
RSI at 80 signals an overbought condition, the stock sits within 3% of its 52-week high, and only 1.0% of headroom remains to the near-term resistance target — a combination that leaves the setup stretched and vulnerable to a pullback on any catalyst for profit-taking. Momentum breakdown | RSI returns to between 50 and 65 over the next four to eight weeks without price falling more than 8% from the current $352.93 level, indicating a healthy consolidation that resets the technical setup without breaking the uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought readings in strongly trending names can persist for extended periods when the fundamental backdrop is improving; with a forward multiple of 9 times still well below the long-run average for quality asset managers, the RSI extreme may be a transient consequence of re-rating rather than a reversal warning. | ||
The company ranks among the highest-quality names in its asset management peer group on financial strength and return metrics, with superior return on equity versus peers and a peer quality ranking that places it in the top tier of the competitive set.
→StablePeer rank
- Expectation
- Peer-relative quality ranking remains in the top quartile over the next four quarters, confirming that the business continues to earn above-peer returns without deterioration in capital efficiency.
CounterAsset management quality rankings are sensitive to AUM levels and market beta; a sustained market drawdown would compress fee revenues and returns simultaneously across the peer group, and a firm heavily weighted toward equities could see its relative quality advantage narrow faster than its absolute metrics decline.
Despite strong stated margins of 36%, free cash flow converts at only 31% of net income — a red flag indicating that a significant portion of reported earnings does not translate to distributable cash, raising questions about the reliability of the earnings base.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% over the next four quarters, demonstrating that the earnings-to-cash conversion gap is structural and closing.
CounterIn an asset management context, a low FCF-to-net-income ratio can reflect discretionary reinvestment in new affiliate relationships or seed capital deployment; if these outlays are management-controlled and capable of reversal, the conversion gap can close rapidly without requiring a structural fix.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters — delivering $8.23, $9.48, $6.10, and $5.39 against estimates of $8.07, $8.84, $5.88, and $5.29 — a track record of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that supports the current valuation.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in each of the next two quarters with a positive surprise percentage, extending the streak to six consecutive beats.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak averaging roughly 4% can narrow as analysts calibrate to the pattern; any softening in carried interest realizations or AUM contraction from market depreciation could shift a near-beat to an in-line or miss, removing the execution premium embedded in the current price.
RSI at 80 signals an overbought condition, the stock sits within 3% of its 52-week high, and only 1.0% of headroom remains to the near-term resistance target — a combination that leaves the setup stretched and vulnerable to a pullback on any catalyst for profit-taking.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI returns to between 50 and 65 over the next four to eight weeks without price falling more than 8% from the current $352.93 level, indicating a healthy consolidation that resets the technical setup without breaking the uptrend.
CounterOverbought readings in strongly trending names can persist for extended periods when the fundamental backdrop is improving; with a forward multiple of 9 times still well below the long-run average for quality asset managers, the RSI extreme may be a transient consequence of re-rating rather than a reversal warning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Affiliated Managers Group delivers 36% operating margins, a perfect Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats, and screens attractively at a forward multiple of 9 times with a PEG ratio near 1.1; however, free cash flow converts at only 31% of net income, RSI sits at an overbought 80, and the stock is just 1.0% below its near-term resistance target — the setup favors patience over adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.3 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.4 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,570,314 (0.072% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.71
Upside
-5.6%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 24d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 7.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Quality at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Technical at 4.4, and Insider at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Peer Relative Quality Superiority
Trip ifPeer quality ranking falls below the top 50th percentile for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Poor Free Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Overbought Near Resistance
Trip ifRSI drops below 50 and price falls more than 10% below the current $352.93 level.