Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
- ▸Attractively valued
AMG · Why this verdict
Why Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Affiliated Managers Group pairs about 30% YoY growth, 38% margins and a wide moat with a cheap 8.8x forward P/E, but the stock is essentially at its analyst target and free cash flow covers only 32% of net income, so a hold ahead of earnings in 1 day fits.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AMG has a wide economic moat with 38% margins and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting strong profitability. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold near 38% and return on equity should remain superior to peers. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets is weak at 2.1/10 and margins can compress quickly if fee rates or assets under management fall. | ||
AMG grew revenue about 30% YoY, from $493.2 million to $640.7 million in the June 2026 quarter, earning the maximum growth score of 10/10. Growth breakdown | Growth should stay in the double digits and move toward the $655 million next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and asset-manager revenue is tied to market levels, so a market pullback could reverse it quickly. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag because free cash flow equals only 32% of net income despite strong reported margins. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should improve toward at least 80% of net income if reported earnings are fully backed by cash. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset managers often have lumpy cash flow from timing of performance fees and investment items, so a low ratio may not reflect poor earnings quality. | ||
At $381.57 the stock is within 1.6% of the $387.77 analyst target, versus 5.9% downside, giving a reward-to-risk of only 0.27. Upside pct | Either the analyst target rises or the price pulls back toward the $370.29 entry level to restore upside. | ↑Improving |
| CounterValuation looks cheap at 8.8x forward P/E with a PEG of 0.64, so analysts may raise targets and the stock could keep rising. | ||
AMG has a perfect 4-quarter EPS beat streak averaging 4.4%, and the next report is due in 1 day, making the print a binary near-term catalyst. Catalyst breakdown | A fifth consecutive beat on the November 2 report would support the growth pillar and the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the price near its target and 4.6% from the 52-week high, even a modest beat may already be priced in. | ||
AMG has a wide economic moat with 38% margins and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting strong profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold near 38% and return on equity should remain superior to peers.
CounterReturn on assets is weak at 2.1/10 and margins can compress quickly if fee rates or assets under management fall.
AMG grew revenue about 30% YoY, from $493.2 million to $640.7 million in the June 2026 quarter, earning the maximum growth score of 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should stay in the double digits and move toward the $655 million next-quarter estimate.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and asset-manager revenue is tied to market levels, so a market pullback could reverse it quickly.
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag because free cash flow equals only 32% of net income despite strong reported margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should improve toward at least 80% of net income if reported earnings are fully backed by cash.
CounterAsset managers often have lumpy cash flow from timing of performance fees and investment items, so a low ratio may not reflect poor earnings quality.
At $381.57 the stock is within 1.6% of the $387.77 analyst target, versus 5.9% downside, giving a reward-to-risk of only 0.27.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either the analyst target rises or the price pulls back toward the $370.29 entry level to restore upside.
CounterValuation looks cheap at 8.8x forward P/E with a PEG of 0.64, so analysts may raise targets and the stock could keep rising.
AMG has a perfect 4-quarter EPS beat streak averaging 4.4%, and the next report is due in 1 day, making the print a binary near-term catalyst.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat on the November 2 report would support the growth pillar and the current price.
CounterWith the price near its target and 4.6% from the 52-week high, even a modest beat may already be priced in.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.1 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.8 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.3 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $330
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.89
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 7.6, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 4.1, Momentum at 4.1, and Peer rank at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Margin Wide Moat
Trip ifMargins fall below 30% from the current 38%.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion stays below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifPrice falls below $352, lifting upside to the $387.77 target above 10%.
- P5Earnings Beat Streak Event
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% on the November 2 report.