Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
AM · Why this verdict
Why Antero Midstream (AM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business generates 32% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a composite score of 44, and earns a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 — indicating a financially sound, well-run operation that covers its cost of capital comfortably. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 25% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 35 over the next 12 months, confirming durable profitability. | →Stable |
| CounterMidstream margins are contractually locked to a single upstream customer; if that customer reduces throughput volumes, apparent business quality could deteriorate rapidly despite the favorable current metrics. | ||
The company carries a high-severity single-customer concentration risk identified in its annual risk disclosures — a relationship where any volume reduction, credit stress, or renegotiation by the customer directly impairs throughput revenue with limited ability to replace it quickly. Bear case | A second customer formally contributes more than 25% of total annual revenues, materially reducing single-customer dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterLong-term midstream contracts typically include take-or-pay minimums and acreage dedications that make the relationship structurally stable regardless of shorter-term commodity cycles — limiting near-term cash flow risk even if the relationship is concentrated. | ||
The stock has reached its near-term resistance target with only about 3.6% upside remaining and a risk/reward ratio below 1-to-1 — technically unfavorable — while momentum has softened to a level that does not provide a strong directional signal in either direction. Warnings | Price falls below $19.00, creating more than 15% upside to the $22.10 resistance target and restoring a favorable risk/reward for entry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock trades above its 200-day moving average and the underlying business quality is strong; a modest price consolidation rather than a deeper pullback may be all that is needed before momentum re-accelerates. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 2.17 and implied volatility is 60%, reflecting materially more protective hedging activity in the options market than call-side speculation — a sign that sophisticated market participants are positioning for near-term uncertainty or downside. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 1.2 for 2 consecutive measurement periods, indicating hedging pressure has normalized. | →Stable |
| CounterFor high-yield midstream names, elevated put/call ratios often reflect income-oriented strategies such as covered calls and protective collars on existing long positions rather than directional bearish bets. | ||
The business generates 32% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a composite score of 44, and earns a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 — indicating a financially sound, well-run operation that covers its cost of capital comfortably.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 25% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 35 over the next 12 months, confirming durable profitability.
CounterMidstream margins are contractually locked to a single upstream customer; if that customer reduces throughput volumes, apparent business quality could deteriorate rapidly despite the favorable current metrics.
The company carries a high-severity single-customer concentration risk identified in its annual risk disclosures — a relationship where any volume reduction, credit stress, or renegotiation by the customer directly impairs throughput revenue with limited ability to replace it quickly.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A second customer formally contributes more than 25% of total annual revenues, materially reducing single-customer dependency.
CounterLong-term midstream contracts typically include take-or-pay minimums and acreage dedications that make the relationship structurally stable regardless of shorter-term commodity cycles — limiting near-term cash flow risk even if the relationship is concentrated.
The stock has reached its near-term resistance target with only about 3.6% upside remaining and a risk/reward ratio below 1-to-1 — technically unfavorable — while momentum has softened to a level that does not provide a strong directional signal in either direction.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price falls below $19.00, creating more than 15% upside to the $22.10 resistance target and restoring a favorable risk/reward for entry.
CounterThe stock trades above its 200-day moving average and the underlying business quality is strong; a modest price consolidation rather than a deeper pullback may be all that is needed before momentum re-accelerates.
The put/call ratio stands at 2.17 and implied volatility is 60%, reflecting materially more protective hedging activity in the options market than call-side speculation — a sign that sophisticated market participants are positioning for near-term uncertainty or downside.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.2 for 2 consecutive measurement periods, indicating hedging pressure has normalized.
CounterFor high-yield midstream names, elevated put/call ratios often reflect income-oriented strategies such as covered calls and protective collars on existing long positions rather than directional bearish bets.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Antero Midstream operates a genuinely high-quality midstream business with strong margins and solid fundamentals, but single-customer concentration poses meaningful asymmetric downside risk, and the stock has reached its near-term resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward at current prices — the setup rewards patience over immediate action.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Rule of 40: 44 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,708,991 (0.035% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 3.9 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.30
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.30 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Growth at 7.3, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.0, Catalyst at 3.2, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Midstream Business Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Single Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifA second customer formally contributes more than 25% of total annual revenues per disclosure.
- P3Target Reached Unfavorable Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below $19.00, creating more than 15% upside to the $22.10 resistance target.
- P4Elevated Options Market Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.2 for 2 consecutive measurement periods.