Value
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
ALKT · Why this verdict
Why Alkami Technology (ALKT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alkami is a growing software platform with positive free cash flow and 19% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed downtrend, weak earnings surprises and heavy supplier and product concentration weigh on it.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue has risen each quarter from about $113M to $135M over the last five reported quarters. Earnings | Quarterly revenue reaches roughly $150M within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth is concentrated in a single SaaS subscription product at 95% of revenue, leaving no cushion if customers churn. | ||
Reliance on AWS as a supplier and one SaaS subscription product at 95% of revenue creates concentrated operating risk. Bear case | Revenue mix diversifies so subscriptions fall below 90% of revenue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration in core recurring revenue is typical for software and the AWS dependence is shared by most peers. | ||
Free cash flow margin is about 14% with a 5.3% FCF yield, moderate but positive. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin holds above 14% as revenue scales. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating and net margin scores are near zero, so cash flow may reflect non-cash charges. | ||
Earnings surprises were inline or negative in all four recent quarters, averaging about -11.7%, including a 37% miss in February 2026. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive at the next two reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWithout a beat in the last four quarters, the stock may keep de-rating. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -6.4% per 30 days and sits 52% below its high, a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 37% and institutional accumulation suggest the selloff may be overdone. | ||
Quarterly revenue has risen each quarter from about $113M to $135M over the last five reported quarters.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches roughly $150M within 12 months.
CounterGrowth is concentrated in a single SaaS subscription product at 95% of revenue, leaving no cushion if customers churn.
Reliance on AWS as a supplier and one SaaS subscription product at 95% of revenue creates concentrated operating risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue mix diversifies so subscriptions fall below 90% of revenue.
CounterConcentration in core recurring revenue is typical for software and the AWS dependence is shared by most peers.
Free cash flow margin is about 14% with a 5.3% FCF yield, moderate but positive.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin holds above 14% as revenue scales.
CounterOperating and net margin scores are near zero, so cash flow may reflect non-cash charges.
Earnings surprises were inline or negative in all four recent quarters, averaging about -11.7%, including a 37% miss in February 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive at the next two reports.
CounterWithout a beat in the last four quarters, the stock may keep de-rating.
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -6.4% per 30 days and sits 52% below its high, a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst upside of 37% and institutional accumulation suggest the selloff may be overdone.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 14%, FCF yield 4.9%)
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 7.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸High IV: 93%
- ▸Above max pain $10
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -9.1% (30d)
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.58
Upside
+7.6%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.58.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Growth at 7.4, and Insider at 7.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Momentum at 3.4, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Positive Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 5% of revenue.
- P3Earnings Misses Pressure
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls more than 20% below the current $12.40.
- P5Supplier Product Concentration
Trip ifSaaS subscription share of revenue exceeds 97%.