Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
ALH · Why this verdict
Why Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alliance Laundry is a highly profitable appliance maker (ROE of 110%) with a steady earnings beat record and 23.2% analyst upside, but insiders have sold about $594M, equal to 13.6% of market cap, and the business depends on North America and sole-source suppliers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The North America segment is 74.0% of revenue and sole-source component suppliers add a supply chain dependence, with two high-severity concentration risks. Bear case | North America share of revenue falls below 70% as international sales grow. | →Stable |
| CounterA supply interruption from a sole-source supplier, or a North American slowdown in housing and commercial laundromat demand, would hit most of the business. | ||
ROE is 110% and free cash flow is 136% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and best-in-class margins versus peers. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion stays above 100% and the F-Score stays at 7 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high ROE can reflect a small equity base from leverage or buybacks, not strong underlying economics. | ||
EPS beat or met estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with the latest at 0.41 versus 0.34 and an average surprise of 17.1%. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprise stays positive at the November 2026 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSmall per-share figures (0.24 to 0.41) magnify surprise percentages, and the first quarter in March 2026 was only in line. | ||
Insiders sold about $593.8M, or 13.6% of market cap, which drives the insider score down to 2.9/10. Insider | Insider net selling falls below 2% of market cap over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge sales shortly after an IPO or secondary offering are often sponsor liquidity events and say little about the business. | ||
The $21.98 price is 23.2% below the $27.08 analyst target, against 7.2% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 3.23. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings beat. | →Stable |
| CounterLight coverage of about 8 analysts dampens the signal, and the stock sits below a flat 200-day average with a death cross. | ||
The North America segment is 74.0% of revenue and sole-source component suppliers add a supply chain dependence, with two high-severity concentration risks.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- North America share of revenue falls below 70% as international sales grow.
CounterA supply interruption from a sole-source supplier, or a North American slowdown in housing and commercial laundromat demand, would hit most of the business.
ROE is 110% and free cash flow is 136% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and best-in-class margins versus peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion stays above 100% and the F-Score stays at 7 or above.
CounterA very high ROE can reflect a small equity base from leverage or buybacks, not strong underlying economics.
EPS beat or met estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with the latest at 0.41 versus 0.34 and an average surprise of 17.1%.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the November 2026 report.
CounterSmall per-share figures (0.24 to 0.41) magnify surprise percentages, and the first quarter in March 2026 was only in line.
Insiders sold about $593.8M, or 13.6% of market cap, which drives the insider score down to 2.9/10.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider net selling falls below 2% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterLarge sales shortly after an IPO or secondary offering are often sponsor liquidity events and say little about the business.
The $21.98 price is 23.2% below the $27.08 analyst target, against 7.2% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 3.23.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings beat.
CounterLight coverage of about 8 analysts dampens the signal, and the stock sits below a flat 200-day average with a death cross.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 8.9 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 110%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $593,473,476 (13.263% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 1.2 |
- ▸High IV: 96%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- INSIDER:13.26%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.71
Upside
+22.0%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.9 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( INSIDER:13.26%=EXTREME, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.71 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Catalyst at 7.5, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Insider at 2.9, Technical at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Return Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 90% from current 136%.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 20% of market cap over 12 months.
- P4Analyst Upside With Tight Stop
Trip ifShare price falls below the $20.78 stop level, a drop of more than 5.5%.
- P5North America And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifNorth America share of revenue exceeds 80% from current 74.0%.