Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
- ▸Attractively valued
ALB · Why this verdict
Why Albemarle (ALB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Albemarle is a cyclical specialty chemicals producer trading 59% off its high with 53.0% analyst upside, 31% YoY revenue growth and very strong cash conversion, but it is in a confirmed downtrend and reports earnings in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $91.00 price is 53.0% below the $139.21 analyst target, with 7.7% downside to the stop and a reward-to-risk of 6.86. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings keep beating. | →Stable |
| CounterAfter a 59% drawdown, analyst targets may lag a sector in structural oversupply and could be cut. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average with the average falling 4.0% over 30 days, a death cross, and falling on-balance volume, giving momentum of 4.4/10. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average slope turns flat or positive and momentum recovers above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings in 3 days could reset sentiment sharply, and beaten-down cyclicals often rally before fundamentals visibly improve. | ||
Revenue grew 31% YoY, and EPS swung from -0.53 in February 2026 to 3.75 in August 2026 as results recovered. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY and EPS stays positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA commodity-linked business can see prices reverse quickly, and the recovery from losses may reflect a low base rather than durable demand. | ||
Free cash flow is 595% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an operating margin component of 10.0/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion on thin net income (net margin component 1.9/10) may reflect working-capital releases that do not repeat. | ||
Net sales to foreign countries are 83.0% of revenue, a high-severity geographic concentration risk. Bear case | Foreign sales share stays below 85% of revenue. | →Stable |
| CounterExposure to trade policy and foreign currency swings can hit results even if volumes hold. | ||
The $91.00 price is 53.0% below the $139.21 analyst target, with 7.7% downside to the stop and a reward-to-risk of 6.86.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings keep beating.
CounterAfter a 59% drawdown, analyst targets may lag a sector in structural oversupply and could be cut.
The price is below its 200-day average with the average falling 4.0% over 30 days, a death cross, and falling on-balance volume, giving momentum of 4.4/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average slope turns flat or positive and momentum recovers above 5.5.
CounterEarnings in 3 days could reset sentiment sharply, and beaten-down cyclicals often rally before fundamentals visibly improve.
Revenue grew 31% YoY, and EPS swung from -0.53 in February 2026 to 3.75 in August 2026 as results recovered.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY and EPS stays positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA commodity-linked business can see prices reverse quickly, and the recovery from losses may reflect a low base rather than durable demand.
Free cash flow is 595% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an operating margin component of 10.0/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh cash conversion on thin net income (net margin component 1.9/10) may reflect working-capital releases that do not repeat.
Net sales to foreign countries are 83.0% of revenue, a high-severity geographic concentration risk.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Foreign sales share stays below 85% of revenue.
CounterExposure to trade policy and foreign currency swings can hit results even if volumes hold.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 595% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 31% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 0.4 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.94
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $73
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:7.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
7.36
Upside
+53.9%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.4
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -59% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:7.4>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rebounding Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $110, cutting upside to less than 20% from current 53.0%.
- P3Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from current 595%.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below the $81.36 stop level, a drop of more than 10.6%.
- P5Foreign Sales Concentration
Trip ifForeign sales share of revenue exceeds 90% from current 83.0%.