Value
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 16.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
AKR · Why this verdict
Why Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Acadia Realty Trust is a retail REIT with excellent cash conversion (342% FCF/NI) and a 4.2% dividend, but it sits in a downtrend with 22% short interest and reports earnings tomorrow with only 7.1% upside to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is 342% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Rule of 40 reading of 59. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income stays above 150% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterREIT depreciation inflates cash flow versus net income, so high conversion is structural and does not signal improving economics. | ||
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 29.3%, but the April 2026 quarter missed at 0.03 versus 0.05. Avg surprise pct | EPS of at least 0.07 per quarter after the 2026-11-02 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe EPS values are tiny (0.03 to 0.10), so small dollar differences produce huge surprise percentages that overstate consistency. | ||
The $19.03 price is 7.1% below the $20.38 analyst target against 5.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.26. Estimated upside | Price rises toward the $20.38 target after the earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at about 7 analysts, and a thin margin leaves little room for an earnings disappointment. | ||
A death cross, falling on-balance volume and the price below its 200-day average combine with 22% short interest and 83% implied volatility. Key risks | Short interest falls below 15% and the price regains its 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe setup shows MACD improving and RSI at 62, and heavy short interest can fuel a rally on good results. | ||
The portfolio is concentrated in retail properties, flagged as a high-severity risk, while revenue slipped to $95.4M in the June 2026 quarter from $103.0M in March. Bear case | Quarterly revenue recovers above $100M, near the prior-year level of $100.6M. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA sequential drop of 7% suggests tenant or property sales churn, and retail real estate remains exposed to consumer spending shocks. | ||
Free cash flow is 342% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Rule of 40 reading of 59.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income stays above 150% over the next 12 months.
CounterREIT depreciation inflates cash flow versus net income, so high conversion is structural and does not signal improving economics.
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 29.3%, but the April 2026 quarter missed at 0.03 versus 0.05.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS of at least 0.07 per quarter after the 2026-11-02 report.
CounterThe EPS values are tiny (0.03 to 0.10), so small dollar differences produce huge surprise percentages that overstate consistency.
The $19.03 price is 7.1% below the $20.38 analyst target against 5.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.26.
↓DeterioratingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the $20.38 target after the earnings report.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at about 7 analysts, and a thin margin leaves little room for an earnings disappointment.
A death cross, falling on-balance volume and the price below its 200-day average combine with 22% short interest and 83% implied volatility.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% and the price regains its 200-day average.
CounterThe setup shows MACD improving and RSI at 62, and heavy short interest can fuel a rally on good results.
The portfolio is concentrated in retail properties, flagged as a high-severity risk, while revenue slipped to $95.4M in the June 2026 quarter from $103.0M in March.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue recovers above $100M, near the prior-year level of $100.6M.
CounterA sequential drop of 7% suggests tenant or property sales churn, and retail real estate remains exposed to consumer spending shocks.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 331% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 22%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.27
Upside
+2.6%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.0, Momentum at 6.7, and Insider at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from current 342%.
- P2Volatile Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifShare price falls below the $17.96 stop level, a drop of more than 5.6%.
- P4Downtrend And Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% from current 22%.
- P5Retail Property Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $90M for 2 consecutive quarters.