Value
2.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸PEG: 1.77
- ▸Expensive valuation
AIP · Why this verdict
Why Arteris (AIP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arteris shows elite Rule-of-40 growth economics, but a failed momentum gate, negative risk-reward asymmetry, extreme insider selling of 2.09% of market cap, and elevated implied volatility argue for caution even as the growth story remains intact.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Arteris posts an elite Rule of 40 score of 65 with 39% YoY revenue growth and positive free cash flow despite a GAAP loss. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should stay well above 40 and free cash flow should remain positive over the next 12 months for the growth thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterElite growth-plus-margin combinations in semiconductor IP licensing can decelerate quickly once large customer design wins are fully monetized. | ||
Both the momentum gate at 3.6 against a 4.5 threshold and the asymmetry ratio at -0.6, negative, have failed, signaling the technical and risk-reward setup are currently unfavorable. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should climb back above 4.5 and asymmetry should turn positive for the setup to clear the engine's gates. | →Stable |
| CounterA weak overall score of 4.9 out of 10 combined with failed gates may simply reflect a temporary post-rally pause rather than a structural deterioration. | ||
Insiders have sold roughly $33.9 million, or 2.09% of market cap, triggering the engine's extreme insider-selling gate. Insider breakdown | Insider selling as a percent of market cap should decline meaningfully from the current elevated level. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge insider sales at a semiconductor IP company can reflect routine diversification of concentrated founder or early-investor stakes rather than a negative view. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst target with a leverage penalty applied given a D/E of 2.6, leaving limited near-term upside on a rich valuation. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline from the current 2.6 for the leverage penalty to ease. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA newly issued, higher analyst target following the strong growth print could quickly restore modeled upside. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.40 and high implied volatility of 103% point to substantial priced-in uncertainty. Key risks | Implied volatility should compress from 103% if the technical and insider-selling concerns resolve favorably. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh implied volatility ahead of a growth-stock earnings report is typical and does not necessarily indicate elevated fundamental risk. | ||
Arteris posts an elite Rule of 40 score of 65 with 39% YoY revenue growth and positive free cash flow despite a GAAP loss.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should stay well above 40 and free cash flow should remain positive over the next 12 months for the growth thesis to hold.
CounterElite growth-plus-margin combinations in semiconductor IP licensing can decelerate quickly once large customer design wins are fully monetized.
Both the momentum gate at 3.6 against a 4.5 threshold and the asymmetry ratio at -0.6, negative, have failed, signaling the technical and risk-reward setup are currently unfavorable.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should climb back above 4.5 and asymmetry should turn positive for the setup to clear the engine's gates.
CounterA weak overall score of 4.9 out of 10 combined with failed gates may simply reflect a temporary post-rally pause rather than a structural deterioration.
Insiders have sold roughly $33.9 million, or 2.09% of market cap, triggering the engine's extreme insider-selling gate.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling as a percent of market cap should decline meaningfully from the current elevated level.
CounterLarge insider sales at a semiconductor IP company can reflect routine diversification of concentrated founder or early-investor stakes rather than a negative view.
The stock has already reached its prior analyst target with a leverage penalty applied given a D/E of 2.6, leaving limited near-term upside on a rich valuation.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline from the current 2.6 for the leverage penalty to ease.
CounterA newly issued, higher analyst target following the strong growth print could quickly restore modeled upside.
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.40 and high implied volatility of 103% point to substantial priced-in uncertainty.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should compress from 103% if the technical and insider-selling concerns resolve favorably.
CounterHigh implied volatility ahead of a growth-stock earnings report is typical and does not necessarily indicate elevated fundamental risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 8.3 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 26%, FCF yield 1.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 65 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 39% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.3 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $72,688,546 (4.695% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Above max pain $22
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:4.70%=EXTREME
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.06
Upside
-0.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.92>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:4.70%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.06 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Value at 2.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Rule Of 40 Growth
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40 from the current 65.
- P2Failed Momentum Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.6.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap falls below 1.0% from the current 2.09%.
- P4Target Reached Rich Valuation
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 2.6.
- P5Elevated Implied Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 60% from the current 103%.