Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
AIN · Why this verdict
Why Albany International Corporatio (AIN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Albany International shows strong revenue growth (34% YoY) and a mostly positive earnings record, but the stock is above the analyst target and heavily concentrated in paper machine clothing and a single aerospace program supplier.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 34% YoY, with the September 2026 quarter at $349.5M versus $261.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue holds above $330M, in line with the $333.7M next-quarter estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth comparisons are flattered by a weak September 2025 quarter; revenue in mid-2024 was already $332M, so the recovery may just be a return to prior levels. | ||
The last 3 of 4 quarters beat EPS estimates, including a 13.5% beat on 1.68 vs 1.48 in October 2026. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprise stays positive in the February 2027 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFive of the prior eight quarters included misses, so the recent streak may be a short upswing rather than a durable pattern. | ||
With upside of -14.2%, the $67.00 price sits above the $57.52 analyst target, leaving little valuation cushion. Estimated upside | Analyst targets rise toward the price, or the stock pulls back toward the $63.10 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum is strong at 8.2/10 with rising volume, and analysts may be slow to raise targets after beats. | ||
About 80.0% of revenue comes from paper machine clothing products and a key supplier provides carbon fiber for the LEAP program, creating concentration risk. Bear case | Non-paper-machine-clothing revenue grows as a share of the total over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPaper machine clothing is a steady consumable business that supports the dividend, and supplier concentration may reflect a strong program position. | ||
The put/call ratio of 1.60 and implied volatility of 134% show options traders hedging a possible drop after a strong run with RSI at 74. Options positioning | Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as the RSI cools from overbought levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh put volume may reflect hedging by holders protecting gains rather than bearish bets. | ||
Revenue grew 34% YoY, with the September 2026 quarter at $349.5M versus $261.4M a year earlier.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds above $330M, in line with the $333.7M next-quarter estimate.
CounterGrowth comparisons are flattered by a weak September 2025 quarter; revenue in mid-2024 was already $332M, so the recovery may just be a return to prior levels.
The last 3 of 4 quarters beat EPS estimates, including a 13.5% beat on 1.68 vs 1.48 in October 2026.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the February 2027 report.
CounterFive of the prior eight quarters included misses, so the recent streak may be a short upswing rather than a durable pattern.
With upside of -14.2%, the $67.00 price sits above the $57.52 analyst target, leaving little valuation cushion.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise toward the price, or the stock pulls back toward the $63.10 stop level.
CounterMomentum is strong at 8.2/10 with rising volume, and analysts may be slow to raise targets after beats.
About 80.0% of revenue comes from paper machine clothing products and a key supplier provides carbon fiber for the LEAP program, creating concentration risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-paper-machine-clothing revenue grows as a share of the total over 12 months.
CounterPaper machine clothing is a steady consumable business that supports the dividend, and supplier concentration may reflect a strong program position.
The put/call ratio of 1.60 and implied volatility of 134% show options traders hedging a possible drop after a strong run with RSI at 74.
↓DeterioratingOptions positioning
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as the RSI cools from overbought levels.
CounterHigh put volume may reflect hedging by holders protecting gains rather than bearish bets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:111d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.24
Upside
-18.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.5, Value at 6.4, and Growth at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Sentiment at 5.1, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $300M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Recent Earnings Beat Momentum
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $75 while the analyst target stays below $60, a gap of more than 25%.
- P4Customer Supplier Concentration
Trip ifPaper machine clothing share of revenue exceeds 85% from current 80%.
- P5Elevated Options Risk Signals
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 2.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.