Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
AIN · Why this verdict
Why Albany International Corporatio (AIN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Albany International has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, carries below-floor business quality, and trades at an overbought level near a 52-week high with effectively no upside to the near-term target — the risk/reward is unfavorable and the fundamental setup does not support the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of roughly negative 4.6%, a pattern that suggests either repeated over-optimism in sell-side models or an operating environment that management has not been able to navigate in line with expectations. Earnings | If execution improves, the average quarterly earnings surprise should turn positive and exceed 5% for three consecutive quarters, reversing the current miss pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a 13.9% positive surprise, suggesting the miss trend may be breaking; a single strong beat is not yet a pattern, but it raises the possibility that conditions have stabilized in ways the prior three quarters did not reflect. | ||
Business quality scores 2.9 out of 10 — below the 4.0 minimum floor — with no discernible competitive moat and a gross margin component near zero, indicating the company lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain pricing power or defend profitability if competitive pressure intensifies. Quality breakdown | Quality would need to recover to at least 4.0 out of 10 with the gross margin component rising above 3.0 for two consecutive reporting periods before the quality floor concern is resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterTextile manufacturing businesses operating in specialized industrial niches can sustain adequate returns without conventional moat characteristics; the moat assessment may underweight proprietary process expertise or long-term supply contracts that are not easily captured in a screen-based quality score. | ||
Implied volatility at 118% is exceptionally elevated for a textile manufacturer, indicating the options market anticipates large near-term price swings and reflecting material uncertainty about the company's earnings trajectory or an upcoming event risk not yet in the public domain. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility resolving below 50% for two consecutive weeks would indicate that the market's uncertainty has been resolved and the exceptional risk premium has normalized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated implied volatility can be a function of thin options liquidity in a small-cap industrial name rather than directional concern; in thinly traded options markets, wide bid-ask spreads can mechanically inflate the implied volatility calculation without reflecting genuine consensus about upcoming uncertainty. | ||
The stock is trading at an RSI of 72 — in overbought territory — near the top of its 52-week range, with falling volume accumulation suggesting distribution at elevated prices rather than new accumulation, while the near-term target sits only 1% above the current price. Momentum breakdown | A sustained run would require RSI to remain above 65 for 60 consecutive days without a 5% drawdown, demonstrating that the momentum is genuinely durable rather than a technically stretched condition. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStocks in industrial recovery cycles can maintain overbought RSI readings for extended periods if the underlying business cycle is supportive; a high RSI alone is not sufficient evidence of impending mean reversion if the macro backdrop is favorable. | ||
The company has missed consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of roughly negative 4.6%, a pattern that suggests either repeated over-optimism in sell-side models or an operating environment that management has not been able to navigate in line with expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If execution improves, the average quarterly earnings surprise should turn positive and exceed 5% for three consecutive quarters, reversing the current miss pattern.
CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a 13.9% positive surprise, suggesting the miss trend may be breaking; a single strong beat is not yet a pattern, but it raises the possibility that conditions have stabilized in ways the prior three quarters did not reflect.
Business quality scores 2.9 out of 10 — below the 4.0 minimum floor — with no discernible competitive moat and a gross margin component near zero, indicating the company lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain pricing power or defend profitability if competitive pressure intensifies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality would need to recover to at least 4.0 out of 10 with the gross margin component rising above 3.0 for two consecutive reporting periods before the quality floor concern is resolved.
CounterTextile manufacturing businesses operating in specialized industrial niches can sustain adequate returns without conventional moat characteristics; the moat assessment may underweight proprietary process expertise or long-term supply contracts that are not easily captured in a screen-based quality score.
Implied volatility at 118% is exceptionally elevated for a textile manufacturer, indicating the options market anticipates large near-term price swings and reflecting material uncertainty about the company's earnings trajectory or an upcoming event risk not yet in the public domain.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility resolving below 50% for two consecutive weeks would indicate that the market's uncertainty has been resolved and the exceptional risk premium has normalized.
CounterElevated implied volatility can be a function of thin options liquidity in a small-cap industrial name rather than directional concern; in thinly traded options markets, wide bid-ask spreads can mechanically inflate the implied volatility calculation without reflecting genuine consensus about upcoming uncertainty.
The stock is trading at an RSI of 72 — in overbought territory — near the top of its 52-week range, with falling volume accumulation suggesting distribution at elevated prices rather than new accumulation, while the near-term target sits only 1% above the current price.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A sustained run would require RSI to remain above 65 for 60 consecutive days without a 5% drawdown, demonstrating that the momentum is genuinely durable rather than a technically stretched condition.
CounterStocks in industrial recovery cycles can maintain overbought RSI readings for extended periods if the underlying business cycle is supportive; a high RSI alone is not sufficient evidence of impending mean reversion if the macro backdrop is favorable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-4.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-4.60
Upside
-34.3%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -4.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -4.60.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Growth at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.8, Catalyst at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -4.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise turns positive and exceeds 5% for 3 consecutive quarters, reversing the current negative 4.6% average.
- P2Below Floor Business Quality
Trip ifOverall quality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.9, with gross margin component above 3.0, for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Overbought Near 52 Week High
Trip ifRSI remains above 65 for 60 consecutive calendar days without a 5% drawdown from current $70.71, confirming sustained momentum rather than an overbought condition.
- P4Extreme Implied Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 50% from the current 118% for 2 consecutive weeks.