Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.69
- ▸Attractively valued
AIG · Why this verdict
Why American International Group, I (AIG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AIG is an attractively valued insurer (9.3x forward P/E) with 248% cash conversion and a bullish breakout, but the price is 3.6% above the analyst target and growth and quality are weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 9.3x and a PEG of 0.69 make AIG attractively valued with a 2.4% dividend yield. Valuation breakdown | The multiple holds near 9x while earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple partly reflects weak growth, and revenue growth scores only 2.6 with earnings growth at 0. | ||
AIG converts earnings to cash at 248% FCF-to-net-income and has a strong 7/9 Piotroski score. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income stays above 100%. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurers' float can inflate operating cash flow temporarily, and ROE and ROA scores remain low. | ||
At $81.90 the stock is 3.6% above the $78.93 analyst target, leaving a reward-to-risk of -0.40 against 9.0% downside. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised above $85 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets for insurers often lag price gains, and positive momentum could lead to upward revisions. | ||
A golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI of 67 and rising on-balance volume give a momentum score of 6.6. Chart pattern detection | Price stays above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout with the 200-day average flat and the price already above the analyst target is vulnerable to pullbacks. | ||
Insiders sold about $18.1M across 3 sales with no purchases, while weak growth and a risk-off quality penalty weigh on the rating. Net value 90d | Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap and revenue growth turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling amounts to only 0.042% of market cap and may reflect routine compensation sales. | ||
Forward P/E of 9.3x and a PEG of 0.69 make AIG attractively valued with a 2.4% dividend yield.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple holds near 9x while earnings grow.
CounterA low multiple partly reflects weak growth, and revenue growth scores only 2.6 with earnings growth at 0.
AIG converts earnings to cash at 248% FCF-to-net-income and has a strong 7/9 Piotroski score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income stays above 100%.
CounterInsurers' float can inflate operating cash flow temporarily, and ROE and ROA scores remain low.
At $81.90 the stock is 3.6% above the $78.93 analyst target, leaving a reward-to-risk of -0.40 against 9.0% downside.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $85 within 12 months.
CounterTargets for insurers often lag price gains, and positive momentum could lead to upward revisions.
A golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI of 67 and rising on-balance volume give a momentum score of 6.6.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterA breakout with the 200-day average flat and the price already above the analyst target is vulnerable to pullbacks.
Insiders sold about $18.1M across 3 sales with no purchases, while weak growth and a risk-off quality penalty weigh on the rating.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap and revenue growth turns positive.
CounterThe selling amounts to only 0.042% of market cap and may reflect routine compensation sales.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 248% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 5.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,098,334 (0.043% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 7.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $66
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.46
Upside
-3.4%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Growth at 1.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 1.3, Peer rank at 3.1, and Insider at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Insurer
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 13x without an increase in earnings estimates.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income falls below 80% from the current 248%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $79.06 stop-loss level.
- P4Bullish Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P5Insider Selling And Weak Growth
Trip if90-day insider net selling exceeds $50M.