Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
AGRO · Why this verdict
Why Adecoagro (AGRO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Adecoagro is a cheap, fast-growing farm producer (6.7x forward P/E, 39% growth) with 20.6% analyst upside, but negative free cash flow, below-floor quality and a repeated earnings-miss pattern keep the setup speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum of 2.9 shows falling on-balance volume and a price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 3.3% per 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDistribution on falling volume often precedes further declines, and a high-yield trap warning adds risk. | ||
Forward P/E of 6.7x and a PEG of 0.14 pair with 39% YoY growth, making the stock attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth stay above 20% YoY while the multiple stays below 10x. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFarm-commodity earnings are cyclical, so a high growth rate and low multiple may mark a cyclical peak. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag with FCF at -259% of net income, no competitive moat and a quality score of 3.5 below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow may reflect heavy capital spending that is not yet earning returns, adding financing risk. | ||
Adecoagro missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -37.3% in August 2026, and reports again in 10 days. Avg surprise pct | The 2026-11-11 report beats consensus and ends the miss pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 8.9% average surprise is distorted by a 316.6% beat from a very low estimate; the underlying record is poor. | ||
The $11.69 analyst target implies 20.6% upside against 7.7% downside from $9.69, a reward-to-risk of 2.67. Estimated upside | Price rises toward the target as growth is delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterA small-cap with light coverage and 103% implied volatility makes a target unreliable. | ||
Momentum of 2.9 shows falling on-balance volume and a price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 3.3% per 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5.
CounterDistribution on falling volume often precedes further declines, and a high-yield trap warning adds risk.
Forward P/E of 6.7x and a PEG of 0.14 pair with 39% YoY growth, making the stock attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth stay above 20% YoY while the multiple stays below 10x.
CounterFarm-commodity earnings are cyclical, so a high growth rate and low multiple may mark a cyclical peak.
Earnings quality is a red flag with FCF at -259% of net income, no competitive moat and a quality score of 3.5 below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0.
CounterNegative free cash flow may reflect heavy capital spending that is not yet earning returns, adding financing risk.
Adecoagro missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -37.3% in August 2026, and reports again in 10 days.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The 2026-11-11 report beats consensus and ends the miss pattern.
CounterThe 8.9% average surprise is distorted by a 316.6% beat from a very low estimate; the underlying record is poor.
The $11.69 analyst target implies 20.6% upside against 7.7% downside from $9.69, a reward-to-risk of 2.67.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the target as growth is delivered.
CounterA small-cap with light coverage and 103% implied volatility makes a target unreliable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -259% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 39% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+39.3%)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.7 |
- ▸Estimates up 39.3% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.65
Upside
+28.6%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.65.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.7, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Quality at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 39%.
- P2Cash Burn And Low Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.05 stop-loss level.
- P5Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below 0% per 30 days from the current +3.3%.