Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
AGM · Why this verdict
Why Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Farmer Mac combines 56% margins, 25% revenue growth and attractive valuation, but heavy customer and counterparty concentration, a thin 8.1% upside and a mixed earnings record temper the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Farmer Mac earns strong 56% margins and a 7/9 Piotroski score, ranking best-in-class among peers. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 50% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins in a specialised lender reflect leverage and funding costs, and ROA of 0.4 shows thin asset returns. | ||
Revenue is growing 25% YoY while forward P/E is 8.8x, with analyst upside of 27%. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY while the multiple remains below 12x. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth in a lender depends on credit conditions in agriculture, and the multiple may already reflect that risk. | ||
Top-10 agricultural finance institutions represent 55.0% of customers and the top-3 AgVantage issuers represent 90.6% of counterparty exposure. Bear case | Concentration does not worsen and no major counterparty weakens. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStress at one large issuer would hit a very large share of the book, and three issuers hold nearly all of it. | ||
Upside to the $218.45 analyst target is only 8.1% from $202.16 against 5.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 1.61. Estimated upside | Analyst targets rise above $230 to restore a meaningful margin. | →Stable |
| CounterWith little upside, even a small earnings disappointment could erase the gain. | ||
Farmer Mac beat in the last two quarters but missed in the prior two, with a -1.1% average surprise and earnings due in 4 days. Avg surprise pct | The 2026-11-05 report beats consensus for a third consecutive quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 19.15% miss in February 2026 shows earnings can be volatile, and a news modifier recently turned negative. | ||
Farmer Mac earns strong 56% margins and a 7/9 Piotroski score, ranking best-in-class among peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 50% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterMargins in a specialised lender reflect leverage and funding costs, and ROA of 0.4 shows thin asset returns.
Revenue is growing 25% YoY while forward P/E is 8.8x, with analyst upside of 27%.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY while the multiple remains below 12x.
CounterGrowth in a lender depends on credit conditions in agriculture, and the multiple may already reflect that risk.
Top-10 agricultural finance institutions represent 55.0% of customers and the top-3 AgVantage issuers represent 90.6% of counterparty exposure.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration does not worsen and no major counterparty weakens.
CounterStress at one large issuer would hit a very large share of the book, and three issuers hold nearly all of it.
Upside to the $218.45 analyst target is only 8.1% from $202.16 against 5.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 1.61.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $230 to restore a meaningful margin.
CounterWith little upside, even a small earnings disappointment could erase the gain.
Farmer Mac beat in the last two quarters but missed in the prior two, with a -1.1% average surprise and earnings due in 4 days.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The 2026-11-05 report beats consensus for a third consecutive quarter.
CounterA 19.15% miss in February 2026 shows earnings can be volatile, and a news modifier recently turned negative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 56%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.35
Upside
+6.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Peer rank at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 7.4, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.2, Catalyst at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 40% from the current 56%.
- P2Strong Growth Attractive Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Customer And Counterparty Concentration
Trip ifTop-3 AgVantage issuer share exceeds 95% from the current 90.6%.
- P4Thin Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $193.84 stop-loss level.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.