Value
9.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.42
- ▸Attractively valued
AGM-A · Why this verdict
Why Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM-A) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Federal Agricultural Mortgage earns very high margins of 56% and looks cheaply valued, but heavy customer and counterparty concentration, leverage, and a capitulation-style selloff keep the stock from being compelling to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company earns strong margins of 56% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, which marks a high-quality credit business. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 45% and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.4/10 and margins on a leveraged lender can be flattered by accounting, so the quality may be thinner than it looks. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a PEG of 0.42 and valuation score of 9.6/10. Valuation breakdown | The PEG stays below 1.0 as earnings keep growing. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap earnings multiples on a leveraged lender often reflect credit and funding risk that the market is pricing in. | ||
Exposure is concentrated: the top-3 AgVantage issuers make up 90.6% of the counterparty base and the top-10 agricultural finance institutions make up 55.0% of customers. Bear case | Concentration stays stable or falls, with no loss of a top-3 issuer. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThese counterparties are large, regulated agricultural lenders and the loans are secured, so concentration may carry less loss risk than the percentages imply. | ||
The stock is in a capitulation-style selloff, with RSI of 17, below its 200-day average on 7.9x average volume, though the long-term average is still rising. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims the 200-day average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume distribution with falling OBV and a MACD score of 0 suggest sellers remain in control and the oversold bounce may fail. | ||
Leverage is heavy, with a debt-to-equity of 20.5 that costs 1.5 points in the score, while the 5.0% dividend yield rates as safe. Bear case | Dividend is maintained and debt-to-equity does not rise above 22. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 5.0% yield on a stock under selling pressure can signal the market doubts dividend durability at this leverage. | ||
The company earns strong margins of 56% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, which marks a high-quality credit business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 45% and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.4/10 and margins on a leveraged lender can be flattered by accounting, so the quality may be thinner than it looks.
The stock is attractively valued, with a PEG of 0.42 and valuation score of 9.6/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG stays below 1.0 as earnings keep growing.
CounterCheap earnings multiples on a leveraged lender often reflect credit and funding risk that the market is pricing in.
Exposure is concentrated: the top-3 AgVantage issuers make up 90.6% of the counterparty base and the top-10 agricultural finance institutions make up 55.0% of customers.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration stays stable or falls, with no loss of a top-3 issuer.
CounterThese counterparties are large, regulated agricultural lenders and the loans are secured, so concentration may carry less loss risk than the percentages imply.
The stock is in a capitulation-style selloff, with RSI of 17, below its 200-day average on 7.9x average volume, though the long-term average is still rising.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims the 200-day average within 12 months.
CounterVolume distribution with falling OBV and a MACD score of 0 suggest sellers remain in control and the oversold bounce may fail.
Leverage is heavy, with a debt-to-equity of 20.5 that costs 1.5 points in the score, while the 5.0% dividend yield rates as safe.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Dividend is maintained and debt-to-equity does not rise above 22.
CounterA 5.0% yield on a stock under selling pressure can signal the market doubts dividend durability at this leverage.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 56%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.4 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 5.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+11.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 9.6; weakest: Momentum at 1.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Technical at 8.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Peer rank at 4.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margin Quality Lender
Trip ifMargins fall below 40% from the current 56%.
- P2Attractive Valuation Peg
Trip ifPEG rises above 1.5 from the current 0.42.
- P3Counterparty Concentration Risk
Trip ifTop-3 AgVantage issuer share crosses 95% from the current 90.6%.
- P4Oversold Capitulation Selloff
Trip ifRSI drops to below 10 from the current 17 without a rebound above the 200-day average.
- P5Leverage Penalty Dividend
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 25 from the current 20.5.