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AGBKAGI IncSell5.6·$6.66-0.45%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AGBK trades at a deeply discounted forward P/E of 3.4x with analyst consensus implying 105% upside to $12.36, but 22% revenue contraction, a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9, and 13% short interest make this a speculative value play requiring evidence of business stabilization before it becomes actionable.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest OverhangDeteriorating
  • Weak Business Quality FoundationStable
  • Deep Valuation DiscountStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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AGI Inc (AGBK) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueQualityShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $6.66: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Weak growth.

AGI Inc provides technology-powered specialized financial services in Brazil. The company offers social security benefits; severance fund benefits; public or private sector payrolls through secured lending solutions; and complementary banking, credit, and insurance products. It... Read more

$6.66+84.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#175 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield
Stop $6.40Target $12.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 10.6:1
Analyst target$14.09+111.5%10 analysts
$12.25our TP
$6.66price
$14.09mean
$16

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $6.66: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — AGI Inc

Generated 2026-07-26T08:08:25Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5
Weak growth
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.2
P/E (Fwd)3.5
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.0%
ROE
Rev Growth-22.0%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -22.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -22%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
9.7
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 10.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $6.60Resistance $7.40

Price Targets

$6
$12
A.Upside+84.0%
A.R:R10.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts7
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$14

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGBK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $6.66: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.40. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.25 (+84.0% upside). Prior stop was $6.40. Stop-loss: $6.40.

What are the risks of investing in AGBK?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Weak growth; Elevated risk factors.

Is AGBK overvalued or undervalued?

AGI Inc trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 3.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGBK?

7 analysts cover AGBK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $14.

What does AGI Inc do?AGI Inc provides technology-powered specialized financial services in Brazil. The company offers social security...

AGI Inc provides technology-powered specialized financial services in Brazil. The company offers social security benefits; severance fund benefits; public or private sector payrolls through secured lending solutions; and complementary banking, credit, and insurance products. It provides its services through cloud-based software, AI-driven automation, and mobile applications. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Campinas, Brazil.

Related stocks: BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · PLBC (Plumas Bancorp) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · AROW (Arrow Financial Corporation)
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