Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
AEM · Why this verdict
Why Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 times with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.11 and approximately 31% upside to the analyst-consensus target, screening as attractively valued relative to the 66% earnings growth delivered over the past year. Valuation breakdown | Price advances toward $225, closing more than half of the gap to the analyst-consensus target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA valuation that appears cheap relative to recent growth may simply reflect the market pricing in mean reversion; if earnings growth decelerates sharply from the 66% pace, the multiple could re-rate lower even as the stock advances modestly. | ||
Price is currently below the 200-day moving average, though that average itself is still rising at roughly 4% over 30 days — suggesting a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than a confirmed change of direction. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months and on-balance volume continues to rise. | →Stable |
| CounterA pullback that persists long enough can erode the rising moving average and convert a temporary correction into a genuine trend reversal; the 'not confirmed weakness' characterization requires price to recover in a reasonable timeframe to remain valid. | ||
The business earns a wide economic moat rating alongside net margins of 39%, a Rule of 40 score of 98, and strong return metrics, placing it among the highest-quality franchises in the sector — a durability profile that supports a premium valuation over time. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 30% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 70 over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWide-moat assessments in commodity-linked businesses are inherently price-dependent; if gold prices fall materially, margins compress and return metrics deteriorate regardless of operational superiority. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.3%, demonstrating reliable execution and the ability to consistently outperform expectations across different reporting environments. Earnings | EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak at modest average surprise percentages reflects disciplined guidance more than structural earnings power; a single operational setback or cost overrun could end the streak without signaling a broader deterioration. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 has already triggered a leverage penalty in the scoring framework, and the dividend is running at 105% of earnings — a payout above 100% of earnings that may be uncovered if free cash flow does not keep pace. Bear case | Dividend coverage ratio improves to below 80% of earnings within 4 quarters, or leverage falls such that net-debt-to-EBITDA stays under 2 times. | →Stable |
| CounterCash-generative mining companies often carry temporarily elevated leverage following acquisitions or capital programs, and free cash flow — rather than reported earnings — is the more relevant coverage metric; if FCF comfortably covers the dividend, the ratio to earnings is less alarming. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 times with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.11 and approximately 31% upside to the analyst-consensus target, screening as attractively valued relative to the 66% earnings growth delivered over the past year.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price advances toward $225, closing more than half of the gap to the analyst-consensus target within 12 months.
CounterA valuation that appears cheap relative to recent growth may simply reflect the market pricing in mean reversion; if earnings growth decelerates sharply from the 66% pace, the multiple could re-rate lower even as the stock advances modestly.
Price is currently below the 200-day moving average, though that average itself is still rising at roughly 4% over 30 days — suggesting a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than a confirmed change of direction.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months and on-balance volume continues to rise.
CounterA pullback that persists long enough can erode the rising moving average and convert a temporary correction into a genuine trend reversal; the 'not confirmed weakness' characterization requires price to recover in a reasonable timeframe to remain valid.
The business earns a wide economic moat rating alongside net margins of 39%, a Rule of 40 score of 98, and strong return metrics, placing it among the highest-quality franchises in the sector — a durability profile that supports a premium valuation over time.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 30% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 70 over the next 4 quarters.
CounterWide-moat assessments in commodity-linked businesses are inherently price-dependent; if gold prices fall materially, margins compress and return metrics deteriorate regardless of operational superiority.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.3%, demonstrating reliable execution and the ability to consistently outperform expectations across different reporting environments.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 3%.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak at modest average surprise percentages reflects disciplined guidance more than structural earnings power; a single operational setback or cost overrun could end the streak without signaling a broader deterioration.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 has already triggered a leverage penalty in the scoring framework, and the dividend is running at 105% of earnings — a payout above 100% of earnings that may be uncovered if free cash flow does not keep pace.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage ratio improves to below 80% of earnings within 4 quarters, or leverage falls such that net-debt-to-EBITDA stays under 2 times.
CounterCash-generative mining companies often carry temporarily elevated leverage following acquisitions or capital programs, and free cash flow — rather than reported earnings — is the more relevant coverage metric; if FCF comfortably covers the dividend, the ratio to earnings is less alarming.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Agnico Eagle Mines presents a wide-moat, high-quality business with 39% margins, a Rule of 40 score in elite territory at 98, four consecutive earnings beats, and roughly 31% upside to the analyst-consensus price target — a pullback within a still-rising long-term trend and a dividend that may be running ahead of free cash flow are the primary near-term risks to monitor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 98 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 66% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 7.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 117.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.10, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.87
Upside
+36.1%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.9) with weak momentum (3.1)
SuitabilityConservative — Beta 0.59<0.8, Div 117.0%, Q=8.9
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.9 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 3.87 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.9, and Value at 8.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Peer rank at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.87 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Elite Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Compelling Valuation Relative To Growth
Trip ifPrice remains more than 20% below the $224.64 analyst target after 18 months.
- P3Earnings Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Leverage And Dividend Sustainability
Trip ifNet debt-to-EBITDA exceeds 3x for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P5Momentum Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading sessions while the 200-day average turns flat or negative.