Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.58
- ▸Attractively valued
AEM · Why this verdict
Why Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Agnico Eagle is a high-quality, wide-moat gold miner (41% margins, Piotroski 9/9) at 14.1x forward earnings, but momentum is weak after a high-volume selloff and the reward-to-risk of 1.2 at spot does not yet justify adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 14.1x and PEG of 0.52 sit alongside an analyst target of $184.00, 11.3% above the $165.38 price. Analyst target | Price should rise toward the $184 target as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterDownside to the stop is 9.4%, nearly equal to the upside, giving reward-to-risk of only 1.2. | ||
Momentum score is 3.2, with falling on-balance volume and a volume surge of 2.7x average on a selloff, though price is below a 200-day average that is still rising. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 with on-balance volume turning higher. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe note describes a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, so this may be a buying opportunity. | ||
Agnico Eagle has a quality score of 8.8 with 41% margins, a wide economic moat, Rule of 40 at 42 and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 35% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGold-miner margins depend on the gold price, so a price drop would compress margins and the moat offers no protection. | ||
Agnico has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +3.7%. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates in the next report (next earnings 2027-02-11). | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are small at 3.7% and quarterly revenue has fallen from $4.1B to $3.6B in the last two quarters. | ||
Free cash flow is 61% of net income (a quality warning) and implied volatility is 152% with a put/call ratio of 1.34. Key risks | FCF/NI should rise above 80% and the put/call ratio fall below 1.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigher capital spending for mine expansion lowers free cash flow without hurting the franchise. | ||
Forward P/E of 14.1x and PEG of 0.52 sit alongside an analyst target of $184.00, 11.3% above the $165.38 price.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should rise toward the $184 target as earnings are delivered.
CounterDownside to the stop is 9.4%, nearly equal to the upside, giving reward-to-risk of only 1.2.
Momentum score is 3.2, with falling on-balance volume and a volume surge of 2.7x average on a selloff, though price is below a 200-day average that is still rising.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 with on-balance volume turning higher.
CounterThe note describes a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, so this may be a buying opportunity.
Agnico Eagle has a quality score of 8.8 with 41% margins, a wide economic moat, Rule of 40 at 42 and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 35% over the next 12 months.
CounterGold-miner margins depend on the gold price, so a price drop would compress margins and the moat offers no protection.
Agnico has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +3.7%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates in the next report (next earnings 2027-02-11).
CounterBeats are small at 3.7% and quarterly revenue has fallen from $4.1B to $3.6B in the last two quarters.
Free cash flow is 61% of net income (a quality warning) and implied volatility is 152% with a put/call ratio of 1.34.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should rise above 80% and the put/call ratio fall below 1.0.
CounterHigher capital spending for mine expansion lowers free cash flow without hurting the franchise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 41%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 61% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $182.94 has reached target $184.00. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:98d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.05
Upside
+0.6%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.2
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.1<1.5@spot outcome against Quality at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.05.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.8, Value at 7.2, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Margin Miner
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30% from current 41%.
- P2Attractive Valuation With Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $170 from current $184, cutting upside to under 3%.
- P3Weak Momentum After Selloff
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $3.3B from current $3.58B.
- P5Earnings Quality And Options Risk
Trip ifFCF/NI falls below 40% from current 61%.