Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
AEIS · Why this verdict
Why Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Advanced Energy is growing quickly (30% YoY) with a perfect four-quarter beat streak and 62.6% upside to the analyst target, but the shares are in a pullback (44% off high, RSI 28), with customer concentration and earnings due in 1 day.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores 10.0 with revenue up 30% YoY: quarterly revenue rose from $405M in March 2025 to $574M in June 2026. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should reach the $645M estimate and keep rising sequentially. | →Stable |
| CounterSemiconductor-equipment demand is cyclical, and a tough comparison could slow sequential growth quickly. | ||
Advanced Energy has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +14.2%, and reports in 1 day. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates again, extending the streak to 5 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith a 44% drawdown and a high bar for beats, even an earnings beat may not stop the selling. | ||
Top-3 customers and sole-source key parts are both flagged as HIGH concentration risks. Bear case | No loss of a top-3 customer and no sole-source supply disruption in 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLong-term relationships with top semiconductor customers are sticky, and sole-source parts risk has been managed so far. | ||
The price of $222.06 is 62.6% below the $361.05 analyst target, with RSI 28 and a price below its 200-day moving average that is still rising. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price reclaim the 200-day moving average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum score is 3.1 and the stock is 44% off its high, so the downtrend may continue through the earnings event. | ||
Forward P/E of 14.3x and PEG of 0.15 look cheap, but cash conversion is a red flag at 16% FCF/NI. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should rise above 50% as working-capital build eases. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth-related inventory and receivables build can depress cash conversion temporarily, but it can also signal weak earnings quality. | ||
Growth scores 10.0 with revenue up 30% YoY: quarterly revenue rose from $405M in March 2025 to $574M in June 2026.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $645M estimate and keep rising sequentially.
CounterSemiconductor-equipment demand is cyclical, and a tough comparison could slow sequential growth quickly.
Advanced Energy has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +14.2%, and reports in 1 day.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again, extending the streak to 5 quarters.
CounterWith a 44% drawdown and a high bar for beats, even an earnings beat may not stop the selling.
Top-3 customers and sole-source key parts are both flagged as HIGH concentration risks.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- No loss of a top-3 customer and no sole-source supply disruption in 12 months.
CounterLong-term relationships with top semiconductor customers are sticky, and sole-source parts risk has been managed so far.
The price of $222.06 is 62.6% below the $361.05 analyst target, with RSI 28 and a price below its 200-day moving average that is still rising.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price reclaim the 200-day moving average.
CounterMomentum score is 3.1 and the stock is 44% off its high, so the downtrend may continue through the earnings event.
Forward P/E of 14.3x and PEG of 0.15 look cheap, but cash conversion is a red flag at 16% FCF/NI.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should rise above 50% as working-capital build eases.
CounterGrowth-related inventory and receivables build can depress cash conversion temporarily, but it can also signal weak earnings quality.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 1.2 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 16% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 74%
Insider
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $8,813,739 (0.101% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (7.1%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Above max pain $155
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.80
Upside
+51.8%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.9 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.80 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Insider at 2.9, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Sequential Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P3Customer And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifTop-3 customers exceed 60% of total revenue.
- P4Oversold Pullback With Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below $190 from current $222.06.
- P5Reasonable Valuation Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI stays below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.