Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.73
AEE · Why this verdict
Why Ameren (AEE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ameren is a regulated electric utility with strong margins (19%) and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but at $110.54 it sits 6.3% above the analyst target, with declining revenue, negative free cash flow and heavy regulatory concentration.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $110.54 is above the $103.55 analyst target (upside of -6.3%), with downside of 10.2% and a reward-to-risk of -0.62. Analyst target | Price should ease toward the target or analysts should raise targets above $110.54. | →Stable |
| CounterUtilities often trade above analyst targets as rate-base growth compounds, and rate-sensitive buyers favor defensive names. | ||
52.0% of the business depends on Missouri electric service regulation (MoPSC), plus supplier reliance on Powder River Basin coal, both flagged as HIGH concentration risks. Bear case | Missouri rate cases should be resolved constructively without allowed returns being cut. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegulated utilities with constructive rate frameworks have predictable earnings, so concentration is also a stable source of returns. | ||
Ameren has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +14.2%, and reports in 4 days. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates again at the November 5 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA streak with a 14% average surprise sets a high bar, and results are partly weather-driven and not repeatable. | ||
Revenue is declining by 6% and there is an earnings-quality red flag of -114% FCF/NI, with a yield-trap warning on the dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive and revenue stabilize with growth above 0%. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow in regulated utilities reflects heavy capital spending that earns a regulated return, so it is not a pure warning sign. | ||
Forward P/E of 19.0x and PEG of 2.73 are paired with RSI of 72, overbought, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.14. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 20x as price consolidates. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum score of 7.2 with rising on-balance volume shows the buyers remain in control. | ||
The price of $110.54 is above the $103.55 analyst target (upside of -6.3%), with downside of 10.2% and a reward-to-risk of -0.62.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should ease toward the target or analysts should raise targets above $110.54.
CounterUtilities often trade above analyst targets as rate-base growth compounds, and rate-sensitive buyers favor defensive names.
52.0% of the business depends on Missouri electric service regulation (MoPSC), plus supplier reliance on Powder River Basin coal, both flagged as HIGH concentration risks.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Missouri rate cases should be resolved constructively without allowed returns being cut.
CounterRegulated utilities with constructive rate frameworks have predictable earnings, so concentration is also a stable source of returns.
Ameren has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +14.2%, and reports in 4 days.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again at the November 5 report.
CounterA streak with a 14% average surprise sets a high bar, and results are partly weather-driven and not repeatable.
Revenue is declining by 6% and there is an earnings-quality red flag of -114% FCF/NI, with a yield-trap warning on the dividend.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and revenue stabilize with growth above 0%.
CounterNegative free cash flow in regulated utilities reflects heavy capital spending that earns a regulated return, so it is not a pure warning sign.
Forward P/E of 19.0x and PEG of 2.73 are paired with RSI of 72, overbought, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.14.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 20x as price consolidates.
CounterMomentum score of 7.2 with rising on-balance volume shows the buyers remain in control.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -114% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $168,262 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 8.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸Above max pain $90
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 3.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-6.3%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.70 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.8, Sentiment at 6.4, and Catalyst at 5.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.7, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds 15% above the $103.55 analyst target, above about $119.
- P2Missouri Regulatory Concentration
Trip ifMoPSC share of revenue exceeds 60% of total from current 52%.
- P3Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P4Weak Cash Flow And Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 10% YoY from current -6%.
- P5Full Valuation And Overbought
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x from current 19.0x.