Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.10
ADUS · Why this verdict
Why Addus HomeCare (ADUS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Addus HomeCare is a steadily growing home-care operator with a perfect Piotroski F-Score and four straight earnings beats, but at $125.54 the price is 7.1% above the analyst target and near its 52-week high going into earnings.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $125.54 is above the $116.65 analyst target (upside of -7.1%), with downside of 12.2% and a reward-to-risk of -0.58. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised above $125.54 or price should ease toward the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTargets lag steady operators, and four consecutive beats could drive upward revisions after the upcoming report. | ||
Quarterly revenue has risen from $338M in March 2025 to $377M in June 2026, about 8% YoY growth in the latest quarter versus $349M a year earlier. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach the $388.7M estimate and keep growing at 5% or more YoY. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth score is only 5.7, and Medicare reimbursement changes could squeeze a home-care business. | ||
Addus has beaten estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters (average surprise +2.76%) and reports in 2 days. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates again so the beat streak extends to 5 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeat margins are small (about 2.8%) and the stock is near its 52-week high, so an inline print could cause a sell-off. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is 9/9 and debt levels are conservative, yet the quality score is only 5.2. Quality breakdown | Quality score should rise above 6.0 as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect F-Score on low margin can reflect a thin-margin business with limited pricing power. | ||
RSI is 78, overbought, and price is within 0.9% of its 52-week high, although momentum score is a strong 8.0. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its 200-day moving average through any consolidation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStocks near 52-week highs with rising on-balance volume often continue higher, so overbought readings are not a sell signal. | ||
The price of $125.54 is above the $116.65 analyst target (upside of -7.1%), with downside of 12.2% and a reward-to-risk of -0.58.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above $125.54 or price should ease toward the target.
CounterTargets lag steady operators, and four consecutive beats could drive upward revisions after the upcoming report.
Quarterly revenue has risen from $338M in March 2025 to $377M in June 2026, about 8% YoY growth in the latest quarter versus $349M a year earlier.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $388.7M estimate and keep growing at 5% or more YoY.
CounterGrowth score is only 5.7, and Medicare reimbursement changes could squeeze a home-care business.
Addus has beaten estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters (average surprise +2.76%) and reports in 2 days.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again so the beat streak extends to 5 quarters.
CounterBeat margins are small (about 2.8%) and the stock is near its 52-week high, so an inline print could cause a sell-off.
The Piotroski F-Score is 9/9 and debt levels are conservative, yet the quality score is only 5.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 6.0 as margins improve.
CounterA perfect F-Score on low margin can reflect a thin-margin business with limited pricing power.
RSI is 78, overbought, and price is within 0.9% of its 52-week high, although momentum score is a strong 8.0.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its 200-day moving average through any consolidation.
CounterStocks near 52-week highs with rising on-balance volume often continue higher, so overbought readings are not a sell signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.66
Upside
-6.1%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; weakest: Technical at 5.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Momentum at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 5.2, Quality at 5.2, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds 15% above the $116.65 analyst target, above about $134.
- P2Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 4% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Perfect Beat Streak Into Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P4Strong Financial Health Moderate Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.5 from current 5.2.
- P5Overbought Near High
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% from the current $125.54.