Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
ADUS · Why this verdict
Why Addus HomeCare (ADUS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 12.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.91, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth rate, while a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 signals balance sheet and earnings quality in the top tier of its peer group. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates stay stable or rise, keeping the PEG below 1.2 and the forward P/E below 15x over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG below 1.0 in a healthcare services business may reflect the market pricing in reimbursement or regulatory risk that compresses long-run growth; the Piotroski score captures historical financial strength but does not guard against prospective margin compression in a competitively contested home-care market. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 2.8%, demonstrating steady and consistent delivery ahead of consensus expectations. Earnings | The company posts a fifth consecutive earnings beat when it reports in approximately 48 days, with a positive EPS surprise of at least 1%. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of 2.8% is modest, suggesting tight estimate calibration rather than meaningful operational outperformance; any guidance reset or upward revision to the consensus estimate could make future beats more difficult. | ||
On-balance volume is rising, MACD is improving, and momentum scores well above the threshold for a favorable technical setup, suggesting institutional accumulation is underway even as the stock remains below its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months, confirming the accumulation signal. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains below the 200-day moving average with the slope still in decline, meaning the momentum improvement has not yet translated into a confirmed uptrend; a resumption of selling pressure could reverse the on-balance volume signal quickly. | ||
Two medium-severity concentration risks are flagged in the company's public filings, which could limit revenue resilience if either dimension comes under pressure. Risk breakdown | Neither concentration risk materializes into a revenue disruption exceeding 5% of total quarterly revenue over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMedium-severity concentration risks in healthcare services are often structural characteristics of the business model rather than acute threats; if management has maintained these risk levels over multiple years without a disruption, the risks may be adequately managed. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 12.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.91, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth rate, while a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 signals balance sheet and earnings quality in the top tier of its peer group.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates stay stable or rise, keeping the PEG below 1.2 and the forward P/E below 15x over the next four reported quarters.
CounterA PEG below 1.0 in a healthcare services business may reflect the market pricing in reimbursement or regulatory risk that compresses long-run growth; the Piotroski score captures historical financial strength but does not guard against prospective margin compression in a competitively contested home-care market.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 2.8%, demonstrating steady and consistent delivery ahead of consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company posts a fifth consecutive earnings beat when it reports in approximately 48 days, with a positive EPS surprise of at least 1%.
CounterAn average surprise of 2.8% is modest, suggesting tight estimate calibration rather than meaningful operational outperformance; any guidance reset or upward revision to the consensus estimate could make future beats more difficult.
On-balance volume is rising, MACD is improving, and momentum scores well above the threshold for a favorable technical setup, suggesting institutional accumulation is underway even as the stock remains below its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months, confirming the accumulation signal.
CounterThe stock remains below the 200-day moving average with the slope still in decline, meaning the momentum improvement has not yet translated into a confirmed uptrend; a resumption of selling pressure could reverse the on-balance volume signal quickly.
Two medium-severity concentration risks are flagged in the company's public filings, which could limit revenue resilience if either dimension comes under pressure.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Neither concentration risk materializes into a revenue disruption exceeding 5% of total quarterly revenue over the next 12 months.
CounterMedium-severity concentration risks in healthcare services are often structural characteristics of the business model rather than acute threats; if management has maintained these risk levels over multiple years without a disruption, the risks may be adequately managed.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Addus HomeCare screens attractively on valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 12.7x and PEG of 0.91, carries a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, and has delivered four consecutive earnings beats, while improving technical momentum — rising on-balance volume and improving MACD — and 21.7% upside to the analyst consensus target set up a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 3.8-to-1.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 1.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 91)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $90,168 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.65
Upside
+9.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 91
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($2.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, Value at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Peer rank at 3.7, and Growth at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Top Financial Health
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x as earnings estimates decline more than 10% from current levels.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Improving Momentum Volume Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns from rising to falling for more than 6 consecutive weeks.
- P4Medium Concentration Risks
Trip ifEither concentration risk produces a disclosed revenue impact exceeding 5% of total quarterly revenue.