Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.84
ADSK · Why this verdict
Why Autodesk (ADSK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Autodesk is a high-quality software compounder (ROE 54%, wide moat, Rule of 40 at 57) with strong growth, but at $249.61 the reward-to-risk is only 1.06 on 13.4% upside, so patience for a better entry is warranted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores 8.2 and the company passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 57, combining growth and profitability. Quality breakdown | Rule of 40 score should stay above 40 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth for a mature design-software franchise is hard to sustain and the growth data confidence is only partial. | ||
International revenue is 64.0% of the total, a flagged geographic concentration risk, with one HIGH and one MED concentration risk listed. Bear case | International revenue should keep growing without a currency or regional demand shock. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGeographic diversification across many countries also spreads risk, and the concentration is a feature of a global software franchise. | ||
Autodesk has a quality score of 8.5 with ROE of 54%, 21% margins, 192% FCF/NI cash conversion and a wide economic moat. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold near 21% and cash conversion above 100% of net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 54% ROE is flattered by leverage (D/E 1.1) and buybacks, and software moats face AI-driven disruption risk. | ||
Forward P/E of 17.6x and PEG of 0.84 are reasonable, but the analyst target of $282.94 gives only 13.4% upside against 12.6% downside (reward-to-risk 1.06). Risk reward | Price should pull back toward the $241.71 entry level or the target should rise to improve the reward-to-risk. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWaiting for a pullback may miss gains if the uptrend continues, as momentum is strong at 7.8. | ||
Momentum score is 7.8 with rising on-balance volume and institutions accumulating, though the 200-day moving-average slope is flat. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should stay above 5.5 with price above its 200-day moving average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterImplied volatility of 80% and a flat moving-average slope suggest the trend lacks conviction. | ||
Growth scores 8.2 and the company passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 57, combining growth and profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Rule of 40 score should stay above 40 over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth for a mature design-software franchise is hard to sustain and the growth data confidence is only partial.
International revenue is 64.0% of the total, a flagged geographic concentration risk, with one HIGH and one MED concentration risk listed.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue should keep growing without a currency or regional demand shock.
CounterGeographic diversification across many countries also spreads risk, and the concentration is a feature of a global software franchise.
Autodesk has a quality score of 8.5 with ROE of 54%, 21% margins, 192% FCF/NI cash conversion and a wide economic moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold near 21% and cash conversion above 100% of net income over 12 months.
CounterA 54% ROE is flattered by leverage (D/E 1.1) and buybacks, and software moats face AI-driven disruption risk.
Forward P/E of 17.6x and PEG of 0.84 are reasonable, but the analyst target of $282.94 gives only 13.4% upside against 12.6% downside (reward-to-risk 1.06).
↓DeterioratingRisk reward
- Expectation
- Price should pull back toward the $241.71 entry level or the target should rise to improve the reward-to-risk.
CounterWaiting for a pullback may miss gains if the uptrend continues, as momentum is strong at 7.8.
Momentum score is 7.8 with rising on-balance volume and institutions accumulating, though the 200-day moving-average slope is flat.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should stay above 5.5 with price above its 200-day moving average.
CounterImplied volatility of 80% and a flat moving-average slope suggest the trend lacks conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 54%
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 192% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $155
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.84, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.2/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.5>=7.5+momentum=6.7>=5.0 exempted
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.94
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 21d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.5 and growth 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.94 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.5, Growth at 8.2, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Peer rank at 4.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.94 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Compounder
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% from current margins near 21%.
- P2Rule Of 40 Growth Profile
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40 from current 57.
- P3Fair Valuation Limited Reward
Trip ifReward-to-risk stays below 1.5 with price above $260.
- P4International Revenue Concentration
Trip ifInternational revenue exceeds 70% of total revenue from current 64%.
- P5Positive Trend And Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score drops to below 5.0 from current 7.8.