Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
ADNT · Why this verdict
Why Adient (ADNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Adient is a deeply discounted, low-quality auto parts supplier (forward P/E 5.7x, 44.1% upside to the analyst target) with thin margins, no moat, a confirmed downtrend and erratic earnings.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality score of 3.3 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and net margin component near zero (0.2/10). Bear case | Operating and net margins should improve measurably over 12 months for quality to recover above 4.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCash conversion is excellent at 739% FCF/NI, so reported earnings understate the cash the business generates. | ||
Forward P/E of 5.7x and PEG of 0.14 sit alongside an analyst target of $24.04, 44.1% above the $16.69 price. Valuation breakdown | Price should close part of the gap to the $24.04 target as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 5.7x may be a value trap: the market is discounting cyclical auto-demand risk and thin margins. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -1.5% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, though on-balance volume is rising. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume suggests buyers are absorbing selling, so a base may be forming despite the downtrend. | ||
Adient has two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, including a -15.93% miss in August 2026, with earnings due in 3 days. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates in the coming quarters, reversing the August 2026 miss of $0.48 vs $0.57. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprise over the last four quarters was +18.96% thanks to large beats, so misses may be timing noise. | ||
A $1.3B market cap, beta of 1.61, short interest of 11% and implied volatility of 85% make the stock aggressive and volatile. Key risks | Short interest should decline below 8% if sentiment on the turnaround improves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest creates squeeze potential, and the small-cap size is below institutional reach, which can leave the shares mispriced. | ||
Quality score of 3.3 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and net margin component near zero (0.2/10).
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating and net margins should improve measurably over 12 months for quality to recover above 4.0.
CounterCash conversion is excellent at 739% FCF/NI, so reported earnings understate the cash the business generates.
Forward P/E of 5.7x and PEG of 0.14 sit alongside an analyst target of $24.04, 44.1% above the $16.69 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $24.04 target as earnings stabilize.
CounterA forward P/E of 5.7x may be a value trap: the market is discounting cyclical auto-demand risk and thin margins.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -1.5% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, though on-balance volume is rising.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation.
CounterRising on-balance volume suggests buyers are absorbing selling, so a base may be forming despite the downtrend.
Adient has two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, including a -15.93% miss in August 2026, with earnings due in 3 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates in the coming quarters, reversing the August 2026 miss of $0.48 vs $0.57.
CounterAverage surprise over the last four quarters was +18.96% thanks to large beats, so misses may be timing noise.
A $1.3B market cap, beta of 1.61, short interest of 11% and implied volatility of 85% make the stock aggressive and volatile.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 8% if sentiment on the turnaround improves.
CounterHigh short interest creates squeeze potential, and the small-cap size is below institutional reach, which can leave the shares mispriced.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 739% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 7.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 63%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $150,978 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.43
Upside
+42.1%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.65>1.3, MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 4.43.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Sentiment at 7.4, and Catalyst at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 3.3, Growth at 3.8, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $18 from current $24.04, cutting upside to under 10%.
- P2Below Floor Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.3.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% below the current $16.69.
- P4Erratic Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Small Cap Volatility And Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% of float from current 11%.