Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
ADIG · Why this verdict
Why ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ADI Global trades at a low forward P/E of 9.1x with institutions accumulating, but quality sits below the engine's floor and momentum is deeply negative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 9.1x and a PEG of 0.06, the shares are attractively valued relative to expected earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings are delivered so that the valuation multiple holds below 12x over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG often reflects earnings estimates that may be too optimistic for a business scored with no competitive moat. | ||
Business quality of 3.6 is below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by thin gross and operating margins, so valuation alone does not justify a position. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins improve. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe current ratio is strong and the Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 suggests the margin weakness may be temporary. | ||
Momentum at 1.6 is far below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume and capitulation-style selling below the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and volume accumulation replaces distribution. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapitulation readings can mark a bottom, and a stock 46% off its high may already price in the bad news. | ||
Institutions are accumulating the shares even as one insider sold $2,520,000 (0.198% of market cap), which suggests informed buyers see value at this level. Insider breakdown | Institutional holder change stays positive and insider selling stays under 0.5% of market cap. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA small cap of $1.3B is below many institutions' reach, so accumulation may be limited in size and easily reversed. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.1x and a PEG of 0.06, the shares are attractively valued relative to expected earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings are delivered so that the valuation multiple holds below 12x over 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG often reflects earnings estimates that may be too optimistic for a business scored with no competitive moat.
Business quality of 3.6 is below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by thin gross and operating margins, so valuation alone does not justify a position.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins improve.
CounterThe current ratio is strong and the Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 suggests the margin weakness may be temporary.
Momentum at 1.6 is far below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume and capitulation-style selling below the 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and volume accumulation replaces distribution.
CounterCapitulation readings can mark a bottom, and a stock 46% off its high may already price in the bad news.
Institutions are accumulating the shares even as one insider sold $2,520,000 (0.198% of market cap), which suggests informed buyers see value at this level.
↓DeterioratingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional holder change stays positive and insider selling stays under 0.5% of market cap.
CounterA small cap of $1.3B is below many institutions' reach, so accumulation may be limited in size and easily reversed.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,322,000 (0.195% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
3.85
Upside
+48.4%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.85.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Insider at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Quality at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.1x.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.6.
- P3Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 1.6.
- P4Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days exceeds 1% of market cap from the current 0.198%.