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ADIGADI Global Distribution Inc.Sell5.7·$18.91
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ADI Global Distribution is cheap on earnings (forward P/E 8.8x) with the price 41.5% below the $22.97 analyst target, but razor-thin margins keep quality below the minimum floor, and a 48% drawdown, heavy put positioning and a large insider sale add risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Forward Earnings Multiple↓Deteriorating
  • Thin Margins Weak Quality↑Improving
  • Analyst Target Upside↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ADI Global Distribution Inc. (ADIG) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-12). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.91: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

ADI Global Distribution Inc. operates as a distributor of security, AV, and smart living products in the United States and internationally. It sells video surveillance, power, automation, access control, AV, fire, intrusion, smart living, communications, and datacom and... Read more

$18.91+21.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#10 of 25 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $17.59Analyst target $22.97(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst consensus$26.40+39.6%5 analysts with price targets
$22.97Analyst target
$18.91price
$26.40mean
$35

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.91: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

No fresh coverage since Oct 21, 2026

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE—
Rev Growth0.7%
Beta—
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV98%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
2.2
Gap
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.4
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
0.9
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
9.4
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $15.00Resistance $19.51

Price Targets

$18
$23
A.Upside+21.5%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADIG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.91: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.59. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADIG stock price target?

Analyst target: $22.97 (+21.5% upside). Prior stop was $17.59. Stop-loss: $17.59.

What are the risks of investing in ADIG?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is ADIG overvalued or undervalued?

ADI Global Distribution Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADIG?

11 analysts rate ADIG, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $26.

What does ADI Global Distribution Inc. do?ADI Global Distribution Inc. operates as a distributor of security, AV, and smart living products in the United States...

ADI Global Distribution Inc. operates as a distributor of security, AV, and smart living products in the United States and internationally. It sells video surveillance, power, automation, access control, AV, fire, intrusion, smart living, communications, and datacom and networking products. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Melville, New York.

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