Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.25
ACNB · Why this verdict
Why ACNB (ACNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACNB is a small regional bank with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, 34% margins and an attractive valuation (forward P/E 11.5x), but the price is 8.6% above the analyst target and the loan book is 68% commercial real estate, commercial and construction loans. It fits holding, not adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial real estate, commercial and industrial and construction loans make up 68.0% of the loan portfolio, which ties results to credit conditions in those sectors. Bear case | The concentration stays below 70% and credit quality holds through the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA downturn in commercial property values would hit a small bank with a thin ROA much harder than a diversified lender. | ||
ACNB earns strong margins of 34% and scores 7/9 on the Piotroski F-Score, although ROE scores only 4.5 out of 10 and it has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROA scores only 1.1 out of 10, so the bank earns thin returns on its asset base and has little buffer against credit losses. | ||
ACNB beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $1.55 versus $1.47 on 2026-10-22, for an average surprise of 7.0%. Earnings | The January 2027 report extends the streak to a fifth consecutive beat. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly 3 analysts cover the stock, so estimates may be easy to beat and the signal is dampened. | ||
ACNB trades at a forward P/E of 11.5x with a PEG of 1.25, which is attractively valued for a regional bank. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores only 3.5 out of 10, so a PEG above 1 leaves little margin for an earnings stumble. | ||
The price of $65.40 is 8.6% above the $59.78 analyst target, with 6.1% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -1.41. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $65, or the price retraces toward $59.78. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only 3 analysts, the target may be stale, and the price is 3.3% from its 52-week high on strong earnings. | ||
Commercial real estate, commercial and industrial and construction loans make up 68.0% of the loan portfolio, which ties results to credit conditions in those sectors.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The concentration stays below 70% and credit quality holds through the next year.
CounterA downturn in commercial property values would hit a small bank with a thin ROA much harder than a diversified lender.
ACNB earns strong margins of 34% and scores 7/9 on the Piotroski F-Score, although ROE scores only 4.5 out of 10 and it has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterROA scores only 1.1 out of 10, so the bank earns thin returns on its asset base and has little buffer against credit losses.
ACNB beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $1.55 versus $1.47 on 2026-10-22, for an average surprise of 7.0%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The January 2027 report extends the streak to a fifth consecutive beat.
CounterOnly 3 analysts cover the stock, so estimates may be easy to beat and the signal is dampened.
ACNB trades at a forward P/E of 11.5x with a PEG of 1.25, which is attractively valued for a regional bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x as earnings grow.
CounterGrowth scores only 3.5 out of 10, so a PEG above 1 leaves little margin for an earnings stumble.
The price of $65.40 is 8.6% above the $59.78 analyst target, with 6.1% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -1.41.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $65, or the price retraces toward $59.78.
CounterWith only 3 analysts, the target may be stale, and the price is 3.3% from its 52-week high on strong earnings.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 5.8 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $96,264 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 0.7 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.28
Upside
-10.9%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.0; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.0, Value at 6.8, and Insider at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Growth at 3.5, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Margins Solid Financial Health
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 34%.
- P3Reasonable Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from the current 11.5x.
- P4Commercial Real Estate Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate, commercial and construction loans exceed 72% of the loan portfolio from the current 68.0%.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $62.74 or below, from the current $65.40.