Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
- ▸Attractively valued
ACM · Why this verdict
Why AECOM (ACM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 10.4 times and a PEG of 0.70, the stock is attractively priced relative to its growth rate, with approximately 34% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus target of $92.98. Valuation breakdown | The stock progressively closes the gap toward $92.98 over the next 12 months as the valuation discount re-rates, with analyst estimates holding steady or rising. | →Stable |
| CounterThe compressed multiple may reflect rational discounting of a business with no identified competitive moat; without a positive catalyst, an inexpensive stock can remain inexpensive while negative technical momentum persists. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging approximately 5.6% above expectations — a disciplined pattern of consistently delivering above what management had guided. Earnings | The next quarterly print, due approximately August 3, 2026, extends the beat streak and sustains average positive surprises of at least 3% per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent beat was a narrow 3.5% on an estimate of $1.54, indicating the margin of outperformance is compressing; any miss would break the streak and likely prompt a multiple de-rating given the current technical weakness. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope of -6.0%, and a death cross has triggered, placing the price action in a confirmed downtrend that creates meaningful overhead resistance to any near-term recovery. Warnings | A sustained close above the 200-day moving average accompanied by a flattening or positive slope would signal the downtrend is reversing and reduce the technical headwind. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses can resolve quickly once value-oriented buyers engage; with 34% upside to analyst targets and four consecutive earnings beats, fundamental demand may cushion the stock before technical momentum fully repairs. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.06 combined with implied volatility near 75% signals the options market is heavily skewed toward downside protection, a positioning profile that typically accompanies or precedes continued selling pressure. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses as price direction resolves and near-term hedges expire worthless. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can reflect existing long holders purchasing portfolio insurance rather than speculative short positioning; if the stock stabilizes, expiring hedges may generate a technical tailwind through forced unwinding. | ||
Return on equity of 29% is strong by engineering and construction standards, but without an identified competitive moat, these returns are not structurally protected and could compress if pricing power erodes. Quality breakdown | Operating margins hold steady or improve over the next four quarters, demonstrating that current returns are sustainable and not dependent solely on financial leverage. | →Stable |
| CounterIn professional-services businesses, high equity returns often reflect operational efficiency and project discipline rather than a traditional moat, making them more durable than the absence of a formal competitive-advantage designation implies. | ||
At a forward P/E of 10.4 times and a PEG of 0.70, the stock is attractively priced relative to its growth rate, with approximately 34% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus target of $92.98.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock progressively closes the gap toward $92.98 over the next 12 months as the valuation discount re-rates, with analyst estimates holding steady or rising.
CounterThe compressed multiple may reflect rational discounting of a business with no identified competitive moat; without a positive catalyst, an inexpensive stock can remain inexpensive while negative technical momentum persists.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging approximately 5.6% above expectations — a disciplined pattern of consistently delivering above what management had guided.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next quarterly print, due approximately August 3, 2026, extends the beat streak and sustains average positive surprises of at least 3% per quarter.
CounterThe most recent beat was a narrow 3.5% on an estimate of $1.54, indicating the margin of outperformance is compressing; any miss would break the streak and likely prompt a multiple de-rating given the current technical weakness.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope of -6.0%, and a death cross has triggered, placing the price action in a confirmed downtrend that creates meaningful overhead resistance to any near-term recovery.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A sustained close above the 200-day moving average accompanied by a flattening or positive slope would signal the downtrend is reversing and reduce the technical headwind.
CounterDeath crosses can resolve quickly once value-oriented buyers engage; with 34% upside to analyst targets and four consecutive earnings beats, fundamental demand may cushion the stock before technical momentum fully repairs.
A put/call ratio of 2.06 combined with implied volatility near 75% signals the options market is heavily skewed toward downside protection, a positioning profile that typically accompanies or precedes continued selling pressure.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses as price direction resolves and near-term hedges expire worthless.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can reflect existing long holders purchasing portfolio insurance rather than speculative short positioning; if the stock stabilizes, expiring hedges may generate a technical tailwind through forced unwinding.
Return on equity of 29% is strong by engineering and construction standards, but without an identified competitive moat, these returns are not structurally protected and could compress if pricing power erodes.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins hold steady or improve over the next four quarters, demonstrating that current returns are sustainable and not dependent solely on financial leverage.
CounterIn professional-services businesses, high equity returns often reflect operational efficiency and project discipline rather than a traditional moat, making them more durable than the absence of a formal competitive-advantage designation implies.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AECOM offers a meaningful valuation discount and a consistent earnings beat record, but a confirmed price downtrend, a death cross, and heavy options-market hedging argue for patience until technical conditions improve.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.5 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.7 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $699,391 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 0.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 3.9 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 176.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
4.24
Upside
+26.4%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 8.2, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Peer rank at 3.9, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Discount 34pct Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $80, reducing the upside headroom to less than 15% from the current price of $69.59.
- P2Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days and the 30-day MA slope turns positive.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging Pressure
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 and sustains that level for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Strong Roe Without Moat Protection
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive annual periods.