Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.39
- ▸Attractively valued
ACI · Why this verdict
Why Albertsons Companies (ACI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Albertsons is a cheap grocery chain (forward P/E 7.9x) with a 5.2% dividend and a 3-for-4 earnings beat record, but quality is weak (Piotroski 3/9, no moat), revenue is flat and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend. The price is already 3.2% above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price is below its 200-day average, which is falling 4.0% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume, a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims its 200-day average and on-balance volume stabilizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA forward P/E near 8x suggests much bad news is priced in, and a 17% short interest could fuel a squeeze if results improve. | ||
Quality scores 1.7 out of 10, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and no competitive moat, in a low-margin grocery business. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 5/9 and net margin turns positive on the scoring scale. | →Stable |
| CounterGrocery is a stable, necessity-driven category, so low margins may be structural rather than a sign of deteriorating quality. | ||
Albertsons trades at a forward P/E of 7.9x and pays a 5.2% dividend, which is attractive for a defensive grocery business. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 10x and the dividend is maintained over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 5.8 out of 10 and earnings growth scores 0.0, so the dividend may not be well covered if margins shrink. | ||
Albertsons beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.36 versus $0.33 on 2026-10-13, despite a 22% miss in July 2026. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive in the January 2027 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise over four quarters is only 0.6%, so beats are small and a single miss erases the gain. | ||
The price of $13.08 is 3.2% above the $12.66 analyst target, with 14.0% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -0.23. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $13, or the price falls back toward $12.66. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may be lagging a recovery, and the 1.50 put/call ratio shows hedging that could reverse. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average, which is falling 4.0% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume, a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims its 200-day average and on-balance volume stabilizes.
CounterA forward P/E near 8x suggests much bad news is priced in, and a 17% short interest could fuel a squeeze if results improve.
Quality scores 1.7 out of 10, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and no competitive moat, in a low-margin grocery business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 5/9 and net margin turns positive on the scoring scale.
CounterGrocery is a stable, necessity-driven category, so low margins may be structural rather than a sign of deteriorating quality.
Albertsons trades at a forward P/E of 7.9x and pays a 5.2% dividend, which is attractive for a defensive grocery business.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 10x and the dividend is maintained over 12 months.
CounterDividend safety scores only 5.8 out of 10 and earnings growth scores 0.0, so the dividend may not be well covered if margins shrink.
Albertsons beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.36 versus $0.33 on 2026-10-13, despite a 22% miss in July 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the January 2027 report.
CounterThe average surprise over four quarters is only 0.6%, so beats are small and a single miss erases the gain.
The price of $13.08 is 3.2% above the $12.66 analyst target, with 14.0% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -0.23.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $13, or the price falls back toward $12.66.
CounterAnalysts may be lagging a recovery, and the 1.50 put/call ratio shows hedging that could reverse.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.8 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 2.8 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 17%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.58
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 5.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-4.6%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.4 and asymmetric R:R of -0.33.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Momentum at 5.2, and Sentiment at 5.2; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Quality at 1.7, and Peer rank at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation High Dividend
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 4% or the dividend is cut by more than 10%.
- P2Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 3/9 from the current 3/9.
- P3Mostly Positive Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Downtrend Distribution Momentum
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below -6% per 30 days from the current -4.0%.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $12.16 or below, from the current $13.08.