Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.94
- ▸Attractively valued
ACCO · Why this verdict
Why Acco Brands (ACCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACCO Brands is a cheap (forward P/E 5.7x), small-cap cash generator with a 3-for-4 earnings beat streak and a 5.5% dividend, but it has weak quality, no moat and flat-to-declining revenue. After a sharp run to its 52-week high, the price offers only a thin reward-to-risk of 1.6.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is 147% of net income and the dividend yields 5.5%, which supports shareholder returns even with thin margins. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI stays above 100% and the dividend is maintained over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue is declining about 1% and operating margins are weak, so cash conversion from working-capital release may not last. | ||
ACCO trades at a forward P/E of 5.7x with a PEG of 0.98, which is cheap against its earnings power. Valuation breakdown | The multiple holds near or below 8x forward earnings while earnings growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe low multiple may reflect a structurally declining business with no competitive moat, making it a value trap. | ||
ACCO beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.28 versus $0.19 on 2026-10-29, for an average surprise of 49%. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive in the next two quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are tiny (the April quarter estimate was -$0.05), so large percentage beats come off a low base and mask flat revenue. | ||
Revenue is flat to declining (-1%), there is no competitive moat, and business quality is below average, which limits fundamental upside. Bear case | Quarterly revenue stabilizes at or above the year-earlier level of $383.7M. | →Stable |
| CounterExposure to Americas (59%) and Asian suppliers (60%) leaves it vulnerable to tariffs and demand declines in a shrinking category. | ||
After a 14% gap up the stock is at its 52-week high with RSI 74, leaving 23.6% upside to the analyst target against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 1.6. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above the 200-day average and consolidates without giving back the gap. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought readings after a gap up often pull back, and the small-cap float limits institutional support. | ||
Free cash flow is 147% of net income and the dividend yields 5.5%, which supports shareholder returns even with thin margins.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI stays above 100% and the dividend is maintained over 12 months.
CounterRevenue is declining about 1% and operating margins are weak, so cash conversion from working-capital release may not last.
ACCO trades at a forward P/E of 5.7x with a PEG of 0.98, which is cheap against its earnings power.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple holds near or below 8x forward earnings while earnings growth continues.
CounterThe low multiple may reflect a structurally declining business with no competitive moat, making it a value trap.
ACCO beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.28 versus $0.19 on 2026-10-29, for an average surprise of 49%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the next two quarterly reports.
CounterEstimates are tiny (the April quarter estimate was -$0.05), so large percentage beats come off a low base and mask flat revenue.
Revenue is flat to declining (-1%), there is no competitive moat, and business quality is below average, which limits fundamental upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes at or above the year-earlier level of $383.7M.
CounterExposure to Americas (59%) and Asian suppliers (60%) leaves it vulnerable to tariffs and demand declines in a shrinking category.
After a 14% gap up the stock is at its 52-week high with RSI 74, leaving 23.6% upside to the analyst target against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 1.6.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average and consolidates without giving back the gap.
CounterOverbought readings after a gap up often pull back, and the small-cap float limits institutional support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 147% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 3.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.33
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:113d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.87
Upside
+28.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.87 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from the current 5.7x without matching earnings growth.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion Dividend
Trip ifFCF/NI falls below 80% from the current 147%.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Stalling Revenue Low Quality
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $350M versus $383.7M a year earlier.
- P5Extended Price Limited Reward
Trip ifPrice drops to $5.12 or below, from the current $5.50.