Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
ACCO · Why this verdict
Why Acco Brands (ACCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACCO is a cheap, high-yield small cap (forward P/E 4.5x, 7.0% dividend, 58.1% below the analyst target) with a solid 7/9 Piotroski score, but it is excluded from the investable universe at a $397M market cap and has weak growth, falling volume and heavy Americas and Asia-supplier concentration.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (59.0%) and Supplier: lower cost countries, primarily in Asia (60.0%) leave the business exposed to regional demand and supply disruption. Bear case | Geographic and supplier concentration should stay at or below current 59% and 60% levels without a supply shock. | — |
| CounterConcentration in a mature office products franchise is long-standing and has coexisted with steady earnings beats, so the risk may be priced already. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with forward P/E of 4.5x and PEG of 0.75, giving a value score of 9.0 at a $4.30 share price. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 8x while earnings hold, and price should re-rate toward the $6.80 analyst target. | — |
| CounterA forward P/E of 4.5x may signal that the market expects earnings to fall; earnings growth scores 0.0, so the cheapness could be a value trap. | ||
Dividend: 7.0%, with a dividend safety score of 6.5, offers income while waiting for a re-rating. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained at the current level through the next 12 months with FCF covering the payout. | — |
| CounterEarnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI, and weak net margin (1.9) and earnings growth leave the payout vulnerable to a cut. | ||
Market cap $397M below $400M minimum keeps the stock outside the investable universe, and the small-cap size ($0.4B) sits below institutional reach. Warnings | Market cap should rise above $400M to rejoin the investable universe if the share price recovers. | — |
| CounterThe $3M shortfall is tiny, so a small price rise would flip this, yet the same low-float status limits institutional demand and keeps the stock cheap. | ||
Momentum failed its gate at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold) with falling OBV volume distribution, and revenue growth scores only 3.8. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above 4.5 and OBV should turn up over the next two quarters. | — |
| CounterThe stock still trades above its 200-day average and has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, so the momentum weakness may be temporary. | ||
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (59.0%) and Supplier: lower cost countries, primarily in Asia (60.0%) leave the business exposed to regional demand and supply disruption.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- Geographic and supplier concentration should stay at or below current 59% and 60% levels without a supply shock.
CounterConcentration in a mature office products franchise is long-standing and has coexisted with steady earnings beats, so the risk may be priced already.
The stock is attractively valued, with forward P/E of 4.5x and PEG of 0.75, giving a value score of 9.0 at a $4.30 share price.
—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 8x while earnings hold, and price should re-rate toward the $6.80 analyst target.
CounterA forward P/E of 4.5x may signal that the market expects earnings to fall; earnings growth scores 0.0, so the cheapness could be a value trap.
Dividend: 7.0%, with a dividend safety score of 6.5, offers income while waiting for a re-rating.
—Catalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained at the current level through the next 12 months with FCF covering the payout.
CounterEarnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI, and weak net margin (1.9) and earnings growth leave the payout vulnerable to a cut.
Market cap $397M below $400M minimum keeps the stock outside the investable universe, and the small-cap size ($0.4B) sits below institutional reach.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Market cap should rise above $400M to rejoin the investable universe if the share price recovers.
CounterThe $3M shortfall is tiny, so a small price rise would flip this, yet the same low-float status limits institutional demand and keeps the stock cheap.
Momentum failed its gate at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold) with falling OBV volume distribution, and revenue growth scores only 3.8.
—Engine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 and OBV should turn up over the next two quarters.
CounterThe stock still trades above its 200-day average and has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, so the momentum weakness may be temporary.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 84%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 100%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 6.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:9.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
9.77
Upside
+56.7%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 9.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.3, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Peer rank at 3.1, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from current 4.5x due to falling earnings estimates.
- P2Dividend Yield Support
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 3% from current 7.0% due to a payout cut.
- P3Concentration Risk Americas Asia
Trip ifAmericas revenue share exceeds 65% from current 59.0%.
- P4Market Cap Below Universe Minimum
Trip ifMarket cap falls below $300M from current $397M.
- P5Weak Momentum And Growth
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.