Value
9.9/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| p ocf | 10.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 1.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
ABR · Why this verdict
Why Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arbor Realty Trust is a deeply discounted mortgage REIT (price-to-operating-cash-flow 1.3x, 81% off its high) with 52% analyst upside, but revenue is down 48%, quality is below the floor, and the portfolio is concentrated in multifamily and Fannie Mae.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a price-to-operating-cash-flow of 1.3x after an 81% drawdown from its 52-week high, giving a value score of 9.8. Valuation breakdown | Price should recover toward the $2.76 analyst target as credit fears ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA multiple this low reflects market doubt about loan losses and book value, so cheapness may be a signal of impairment rather than opportunity. | ||
Revenue is declining 48% and the quality score of 3.5 is below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and net margin components at 0.0 and no competitive moat. Growth breakdown | Revenue declines should moderate to better than -20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 10/10, which suggests profit may be recovering from a very low base even as revenue falls. | ||
Multifamily makes up 73.0% of the portfolio and Fannie Mae accounts for 66.0% of the counterparty exposure, two HIGH-rated concentration risks. Bear case | Multifamily share should fall below 70% and agency dependence should not rise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAgency lending through Fannie Mae is a stable, government-backed channel, so counterparty concentration is lower risk than it looks. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 10.1% per 30 days, with falling OBV and a volume surge of 2.3x average on the selloff. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average slope should flatten and momentum should rise above 4.5. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn extreme gap down of 17.9% and a Bollinger score of 10 point to capitulation that often precedes a bounce. | ||
Analysts see 52% upside and the target of $2.76 implies 29.1% upside from $2.14 (reward-to-risk 1.94), while the 43.9% dividend and a recent EPS miss ($-0.04 versus $0.05 expected) point to payout stress. Catalyst breakdown | EPS should turn positive and beat estimates over the next two quarters. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA dividend yield of 43.9% signals the market expects a cut, and the payout is unlikely to be sustained. | ||
The stock trades at a price-to-operating-cash-flow of 1.3x after an 81% drawdown from its 52-week high, giving a value score of 9.8.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should recover toward the $2.76 analyst target as credit fears ease.
CounterA multiple this low reflects market doubt about loan losses and book value, so cheapness may be a signal of impairment rather than opportunity.
Revenue is declining 48% and the quality score of 3.5 is below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and net margin components at 0.0 and no competitive moat.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue declines should moderate to better than -20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores 10/10, which suggests profit may be recovering from a very low base even as revenue falls.
Multifamily makes up 73.0% of the portfolio and Fannie Mae accounts for 66.0% of the counterparty exposure, two HIGH-rated concentration risks.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Multifamily share should fall below 70% and agency dependence should not rise.
CounterAgency lending through Fannie Mae is a stable, government-backed channel, so counterparty concentration is lower risk than it looks.
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 10.1% per 30 days, with falling OBV and a volume surge of 2.3x average on the selloff.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average slope should flatten and momentum should rise above 4.5.
CounterAn extreme gap down of 17.9% and a Bollinger score of 10 point to capitulation that often precedes a bounce.
Analysts see 52% upside and the target of $2.76 implies 29.1% upside from $2.14 (reward-to-risk 1.94), while the 43.9% dividend and a recent EPS miss ($-0.04 versus $0.05 expected) point to payout stress.
Tripped↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS should turn positive and beat estimates over the next two quarters.
CounterA dividend yield of 43.9% signals the market expects a cut, and the payout is unlikely to be sustained.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -48%
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 2.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-0.56)
- ▸Analyst upside: 70%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $131,591 (0.037% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 0.7 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸High IV: 143%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $355M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:113d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.97
Upside
+44.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Real Estate sector out of favor, value=9.9
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -84% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.5<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.9 and asymmetric R:R of 2.97.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.9, Insider at 6.9, and Technical at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Momentum at 1.5, and Quality at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value After Drawdown
Trip ifPrice-to-operating-cash-flow exceeds 5x from current 1.3x without a rise in cash flow.
- P2Collapsing Revenue Weak Quality
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 60% YoY from current -48%.
- P3Multifamily And Agency Concentration
Trip ifMultifamily share of the portfolio exceeds 80% from current 73.0%.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Heavy SellingTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $1.99 stop level, more than 7% below current $2.14.
- P5Analyst Upside And Dividend StressTripped
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 15% from current 43.9% due to a payout cut.