Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
ABCB · Why this verdict
Why Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ameris Bancorp is a reasonably valued regional bank with strong margins and a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, but price is above the analyst target and the business has no competitive moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ameris posts strong margins of 32% and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, but has no competitive moat and a middling quality score of 5.2. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 28% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank margins are sensitive to interest rates and deposit costs, and lacking a moat leaves them exposed to competition. | ||
The stock is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 11.8x and PEG of 0.96. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 14x as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores are modest (revenue 4.0, earnings 4.5), so the low multiple may reflect limited growth. | ||
Price of $82.42 is above the analyst target of $80.91 (upside_pct -1.8%), leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.29. Warnings | Analysts should raise targets, or price should consolidate toward $80.91. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe gap to target is small, and positive news sentiment may soon prompt target revisions. | ||
The company beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $1.73 versus $1.68 expected. Catalyst breakdown | EPS should beat estimates in the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSurprises are small (about 3%) and one recent quarter missed by 3.61%. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average but the average is still rising (+0.8%/30d), with falling OBV and momentum at 4.9. Momentum breakdown | Price should regain the 200-day average and momentum should climb above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling OBV indicates distribution, which could turn a pullback into a confirmed downtrend. | ||
Ameris posts strong margins of 32% and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, but has no competitive moat and a middling quality score of 5.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 28% over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional bank margins are sensitive to interest rates and deposit costs, and lacking a moat leaves them exposed to competition.
The stock is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 11.8x and PEG of 0.96.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 14x as earnings grow.
CounterGrowth scores are modest (revenue 4.0, earnings 4.5), so the low multiple may reflect limited growth.
Price of $82.42 is above the analyst target of $80.91 (upside_pct -1.8%), leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.29.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets, or price should consolidate toward $80.91.
CounterThe gap to target is small, and positive news sentiment may soon prompt target revisions.
The company beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $1.73 versus $1.68 expected.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates in the next two quarters.
CounterSurprises are small (about 3%) and one recent quarter missed by 3.61%.
Price is below the 200-day average but the average is still rising (+0.8%/30d), with falling OBV and momentum at 4.9.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should regain the 200-day average and momentum should climb above 5.5.
CounterFalling OBV indicates distribution, which could turn a pullback into a confirmed downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 5.6 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 7.1 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.37
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.1; weakest: Peer rank at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Momentum at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.6, Technical at 4.2, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from current 32%.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from current 11.8x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises more than 15% above the $80.91 analyst target without target increases.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5 from current 4.9.