Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
- ▸Attractively valued
ABCB · Why this verdict
Why Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ameris Bancorp has demonstrated consistent earnings execution — beating estimates in each of the last four quarters at an average positive surprise of approximately 7.3%, supported by 37% net margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — but with the stock within 2.4% of its 52-week high, only about 0.4% of headroom to the near-term target, and a legal risk event flagged in recent news, the setup favors holding existing positions rather than adding new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ameris Bancorp has delivered positive EPS surprises in each of the last four quarters, most recently beating by 4.82% in April 2026, with the four-quarter average positive surprise of approximately 7.3% indicating consistent delivery above analyst expectations. Earnings | The beat streak extends to a fifth consecutive quarter at the next earnings date (approximately July 2026), with EPS surprise remaining positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe second-most-recent quarter (January 2026) saw the thinnest beat in the streak at 0.91%, well below the 19.25% beat from July 2025, suggesting the magnitude of positive surprises has not been uniform; a thin beat is more susceptible to flipping to an inline or miss in a challenging quarter. | ||
Ameris Bancorp reports net margins of 37% — noted as best-in-class relative to regional bank peers — alongside a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a well-managed financial position that stands out within its competitive group. Quality breakdown | Net margins hold at or above 35% over the next 12 months and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8/9 or higher, confirming the quality advantage is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of a competitive moat, as noted in the quality assessment, means the 37% margin advantage may not be structurally defensible; without durable barriers, margins can compress if competitive conditions become less favorable, and the current rating reflects the absence of a structural advantage. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all key moving averages with RSI at 58 and a bullish MACD reading, while on-balance volume trends higher — collectively describing a breakout configuration with constructive underlying demand characteristics. Chart pattern detection | Price advances to and through the $88.20 resistance target over the next three months, with on-balance volume continuing to trend higher and RSI sustaining above 50. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is approximately 0.4% below its near-term resistance target and within 2.4% of its 52-week high; if prices stall at current resistance, the bullish technical configuration may prove insufficient to drive further gains without a fundamental catalyst, and the bulk of the breakout move may already be priced in. | ||
A legal risk event has been identified in recent news, with one risk item flagged and generating a negative news sentiment reading of -0.80, introducing headline uncertainty that could weigh on the stock even as underlying fundamentals remain intact. Warnings | The flagged legal item resolves without material financial impact, and news sentiment returns to neutral or positive within the next 3 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith only one risk item and zero concerns flagged in the news gate, and with insider activity showing a neutral signal over the trailing 90 days, the legal disclosure may represent a minor or immaterial event; if it resolves quickly, the -0.80 news sentiment reading could prove temporary and the fundamental case would remain unimpaired. | ||
Ameris Bancorp has delivered positive EPS surprises in each of the last four quarters, most recently beating by 4.82% in April 2026, with the four-quarter average positive surprise of approximately 7.3% indicating consistent delivery above analyst expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to a fifth consecutive quarter at the next earnings date (approximately July 2026), with EPS surprise remaining positive.
CounterThe second-most-recent quarter (January 2026) saw the thinnest beat in the streak at 0.91%, well below the 19.25% beat from July 2025, suggesting the magnitude of positive surprises has not been uniform; a thin beat is more susceptible to flipping to an inline or miss in a challenging quarter.
Ameris Bancorp reports net margins of 37% — noted as best-in-class relative to regional bank peers — alongside a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a well-managed financial position that stands out within its competitive group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins hold at or above 35% over the next 12 months and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8/9 or higher, confirming the quality advantage is durable.
CounterThe absence of a competitive moat, as noted in the quality assessment, means the 37% margin advantage may not be structurally defensible; without durable barriers, margins can compress if competitive conditions become less favorable, and the current rating reflects the absence of a structural advantage.
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all key moving averages with RSI at 58 and a bullish MACD reading, while on-balance volume trends higher — collectively describing a breakout configuration with constructive underlying demand characteristics.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price advances to and through the $88.20 resistance target over the next three months, with on-balance volume continuing to trend higher and RSI sustaining above 50.
CounterThe stock is approximately 0.4% below its near-term resistance target and within 2.4% of its 52-week high; if prices stall at current resistance, the bullish technical configuration may prove insufficient to drive further gains without a fundamental catalyst, and the bulk of the breakout move may already be priced in.
A legal risk event has been identified in recent news, with one risk item flagged and generating a negative news sentiment reading of -0.80, introducing headline uncertainty that could weigh on the stock even as underlying fundamentals remain intact.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The flagged legal item resolves without material financial impact, and news sentiment returns to neutral or positive within the next 3 months.
CounterWith only one risk item and zero concerns flagged in the news gate, and with insider activity showing a neutral signal over the trailing 90 days, the legal disclosure may represent a minor or immaterial event; if it resolves quickly, the -0.80 news sentiment reading could prove temporary and the fundamental case would remain unimpaired.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.7 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| beta | 7.5 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.74
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.5 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Peer rank at 4.8, and Quality at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.74 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below $85.00 for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P4Legal News Risk Overhang
Trip ifFlagged legal risk items in the news gate fall below 1 for 3 consecutive analysis periods.