Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.59
ABBV · Why this verdict
Why AbbVie (ABBV) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AbbVie is a high-quality, low-beta pharmaceutical franchise with a 9/9 Piotroski score and strong momentum, but price is above the analyst target and customer and supplier concentration add risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AbbVie is a high-quality business with strong margins of 16% and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 9.0. Quality breakdown | The quality score should stay above 8.0 with margins holding over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPharma margins depend on patent protection and drug pricing, which can erode abruptly on a loss of exclusivity. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.9/10 with rising OBV (volume accumulation), price above the 200-day average and a golden cross. Momentum breakdown | Price should stay above the 200-day average with momentum above 6.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA price near the top of its 52-week range with a stretched Bollinger score of 0.9 raises the risk of a pullback. | ||
Price of $294.89 is above the analyst target of $254.87 (upside_pct -13.6%), producing negative reward-to-risk of -1.11. Warnings | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or price should consolidate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA strong earnings catalyst has driven the move, and analysts commonly revise targets upward after such moves. | ||
Sales depend on three distributors (McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora) and on single-source suppliers, both flagged as concentration risks. Bear case | Distribution and supply should continue without disruption over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe three distributors are stable, long-standing channel partners and dependence on them is common across the industry. | ||
Revenue growth scores only 5.1/10 while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.2x and PEG of 0.60, with dividend safety scoring a low 2.0. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth should accelerate above 8% YoY to support the multiple. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 0.60 indicates earnings growth expectations are well above the multiple. | ||
AbbVie is a high-quality business with strong margins of 16% and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 9.0.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should stay above 8.0 with margins holding over 12 months.
CounterPharma margins depend on patent protection and drug pricing, which can erode abruptly on a loss of exclusivity.
Momentum is strong at 7.9/10 with rising OBV (volume accumulation), price above the 200-day average and a golden cross.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should stay above the 200-day average with momentum above 6.0.
CounterA price near the top of its 52-week range with a stretched Bollinger score of 0.9 raises the risk of a pullback.
Price of $294.89 is above the analyst target of $254.87 (upside_pct -13.6%), producing negative reward-to-risk of -1.11.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or price should consolidate.
CounterA strong earnings catalyst has driven the move, and analysts commonly revise targets upward after such moves.
Sales depend on three distributors (McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora) and on single-source suppliers, both flagged as concentration risks.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Distribution and supply should continue without disruption over the next 12 months.
CounterThe three distributors are stable, long-standing channel partners and dependence on them is common across the industry.
Revenue growth scores only 5.1/10 while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.2x and PEG of 0.60, with dividend safety scoring a low 2.0.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should accelerate above 8% YoY to support the multiple.
CounterA PEG of 0.60 indicates earnings growth expectations are well above the multiple.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.0/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $8,177,500 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.06
- ▸Above max pain $135
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (9.0) with weak momentum (3.8)
SuitabilityConservative — Beta 0.19<0.8, Div 2.4%, Q=9.0
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Quality at 9.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.0, Sentiment at 6.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Insider at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Pharma Franchise
Trip ifQuality score falls below 7.5 from current 9.0.
- P2Strong Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from current 7.9.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises more than 25% above the $254.87 analyst target without target increases.
- P4Distributor And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifAny single distributor loss reduces sales by more than 20% of revenue.
- P5Moderate Growth Rich Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 22x from current 18.2x.